Girls Basketball Final Sectional Forecast

Ok so I'm still missing a couple games, but chances are they won't have too big of an impact and I'll run it again when I get them and let you know if anything changed.  What you need to know for this one is that I included their final sectional rating as computed by the regression model.  There is a scale below so you know what they mean.  Happy forecasting and I can't wait to see the brackets tomorrow.

Champions     1.000 +
Finals              0.889 - .999
Final Four       0.778 - 0.888
HF48              0.667 - 0.777  (anyone above this line I usually consider a contender)
Final Eight       0.556 - 0.666
HF24              0.389 - 0.555


Class AA

(1) Bethlehem  17-0                   0.901
(16) Bye
(8) Guilderland  7-9                    0.393     up 1
(9) Bishop Maginn  9-9              0.387     down 1
(5) Catholic Central  11-5          0.632
(12) Niskayuna  3-15                 0.116     up 1
(4) Colonie  14-4                       0.693
(13) Schenectady  0-15             0.034      down 1
(3) Shaker  15-1                        0.756
(14) Bye
(6) Shenendehowa  11-5            0.555
(11) Ballston Spa  4-14              0.160
(7) Columbia  7-10                     0.447
(10) Saratoga Springs  7-11        0.306
(2) Albany  13-0                         0.817
(15) Bye


Class A

(1) Holy Names  18-0                 0.845
(16) Bye
(8) Mohonasen  5-12                  0.332
(9) Amsterdam  4-10                  0.257
(5) Glens Falls  10-5                   0.588
(12) Bye
(4) Queensbury  11-4                  0.635
(13) Bye
(3) Averill Park  13-5                  0.643
(14) Bye
(6) South Glens Falls  11-7          0.538     up 1
(11) Lansingburgh  0-18              0.029
(7) Scotia-Glenville  7-10             0.485     down 1
(10) Burnt Hills  2-16                   0.071
(2) Troy  12-3                             0.728
(15) Bye


Class B

(1) Tamarac  17-1                        0.770
(16) Fonda-Fultonville  7-10         0.351     down 2
(8) Corinth  12-6                          0.497     down 2
(9) Hudson Falls 8-9                     0.490     up 2
(5) Greenville  10-7                      0.545
(12) Hudson  11-7                        0.468     down 2
(4) Ravena  12-6                          0.570
(13) Broadalbin-Perth  8-9           0.434     down 1
(3) Taconic Hills  14-3                  0.702
(14) Catskill  8-10                        0.360     up 2
(6) Emma Willard  12-6                0.535     up 2
(11) Schalmont  11-7                    0.472     up 2
(7) Cohoes  12-6                          0.524
(10) Johnstown  9-8                      0.484     down 1
(2) Watervliet  16-1                       0.758
(15) Ichabod Crane 7-11               0.354

Unranked:  Granville, Albany Leadership, Bishop Gibbons, Coxsackie-Athens, Schuylerville, Cobleskill, Chatham, Cairo-Durham


Class C

(1) Berne-Knox  14-1                   0.794
(16) Schoharie  6-10                     0.333     previously unranked
(8) Mekeel Academy 9-6              0.567     up 1
(9) Lake George  13-4                  0.566     down 2
(5) Fort Plain  13-1                       0.676
(12) Canajoharie  9-8                   0.445
(4) Hoosic Valley  15-3                0.696
(13) Mechanicville  9-9                 0.374
(3) Maple Hill  17-1                      0.736
(14) Whitehall  8-9                        0.3577
(6) Galway  11-5                           0.589
(11) Middleburgh  9-7                   0.512     down 1
(7) Hoosick Falls  12-5                  0.576     up 1
(10) Duanesburg  10-5                   0.533     up 1
(2) Waterford  16-2                       0.764
(15) Greenwich 8-9                        0.3576

Unranked:  Albany Academy, Mayfield, Stillwater, Saratoga Catholic, Berlin, Hadley-Luzerne, Rensselaer, Cambridge, Voorheesville


Class D

(1) Fort Edward  15-0                   0.851
(16) Sharon Springs  0-12             0.000     down 3
(8) Loudonville Christian  6-9        0.262     down 1
(9) North Warren  6-11                 0.247     up 1
(5) Germantown  10-6                   0.442
(12) Bolton  3-12                          0.155
(4) Heatly  13-5                             0.558
(13) St. Johnsville  1-13                 0.049     up 2
(3) Argyle  12-5                             0.675
(14) Doane Stuart  2-13                 0.0064
(6) Warrensburg  8-8                     0.322
(11) Hartford  5-11                        0.228     down 3
(7) New Lebanon  6-9                    0.276      up 4
(10) Northville 6-11                        0.244      down 1
(2) Fort Ann  15-2                          0.796
(15) Salem  0-16                             0.0058     up 1

Unranked:   Hawthorne Valley

I'll do some analysis in the next couple days.  I still have to do the boys bracket then I'm going to bed so I can get up for work tomorrow.

Watching, Waiting, Wishing

Watching the scores come in.  Waiting for 6 more, would run the model if I had just one more.  Wishing it would come in because I'm really hungry and would like to eat something before I go to bed.

Anybody know the final of the boys Mekeel Academy - Fort Plain game?

A Few Good Games and the Prediction Model

There have been a few really good games I haven't had a chance to address yet.  I also want to talk a bit about the Prediction Model and a change I'm making regarding the Forecast.  First off, there were three really big games this week, the first being Troy @ CBA.  It definitely looked like a rout on paper with CBA winning by solid double digits and it certainly wasn't helpful for Troy to have arguably their best guard suspended for the game, nor is it helpful he's suspended for the rest of the season.  While I now believe CBA has a better chance to win sectionals than does Troy (mostly because of the suspension, which the forecast doesn't account for) the forecast model still shows Troy ahead.

In fact, it still lists CBA at #4 behind Troy, Green Tech and Bethlehem, and while I disagree with the Troy rating, I can't say I'm convinced they are now more likely to win sectionals than either Green Tech or Bethlehem.  The 19 point swing between the Troy win and CBA's win each on their home courts can partly be attributed to home court advantage which would roughly account for 5 to 6 of those swing points.  I don't think anyone knows for certain, but at least part if not most of the remaining difference is due to a regression from Troy due to the loss of a player rather than the ascension of CBA.  That said, if you backed me into a corner, I'd probably take CBA, it's hard not to.

The second big game was from the girls' side as Bethlehem crushed defending Champion Colonie.  After a two point win very early in the season, Bethlehem increased that margin by more than 30 in the second game.  The forecast model has now given Bethlehem a really big margin over Albany and while I do think both of these teams will be in the final, I don't know that I agree there is a large difference between them, however I would give Bethlehem the edge at this point.

The final game was a non-league game featuring former league mates Albany Academy and Watervliet.  This game proved to me the most telling for sectionals.  Watervliet may have lost but were tied late in the 4th quarter with a team that lost to the #1 AA school in the state by only 2 points.  Mekeel Academy can brag about a AA win over Amsterdam, but this is a much more impressive loss to me.  Albany Academy beat Green Tech by 11, who beat Schenectady by 31, who beat Amsterdam by 10.  Very roughly, using that rationale, comparing Watervliet to MCA is like comparing Green Tech to Schenectady.  It's certainly not a fool proof analysis, but it's cemented in my mind what I already believed, that Watervliet is going to run away with the B title and make a run at State's.

Finally, I'm going to hold off on releasing this weekend's forecast until my final forecast on Tuesday night.  With no games tonight it makes more sense to wait until the end of the weekend and if I'm holding off until Monday anyway, I may as well just hold it the extra day.  The final forecast will show the final ratings that I have been talking about all this time and where the thresholds are so you know exactly where everyone stands.  Joe talked me into that with his comments and I thank him for that.  If anyone else cares to provide feedback, it's greatly appreciated.

Also, I have run the prediction model and I'm much more pleased with it than I thought I would be.  When I originally started working on this several years ago, I ran a similar model and it was way too biased.  This one seems to have a more mellowed bias almost to the point where I'm considering using it full time next year.  I'll be unveiling this after the seedings come out.  Look for another post Sunday or Monday depending on how much time I have.

The Forecast and Methodology

There was comment posted on my last post and I wanted to respond to it for a couple reasons.  Firstly I would like to thank and congratulate Joe as being the first commenter.  He mentioned how he didn't know what kind of system I was running  because it has some flaws.  I have added a page showing the model's methodology and I encourage everyone to check it out if they haven't read the earlier blogs of which the page is mostly comprised.  I would also like to point out that I have on numerous occasions raised questions about certain flaws in the model, such as the lack of a large database.  In the girls' model, there is only one full season of information and it is less reliable because of that lack of data.  I would also like to point out that I don't always agree with how the model rates the teams, another point I have made numerous times.

The model depends on as much information as possible and is meant to bring objectivity to the table, not 100% accuracy.  I do this so people have more information and can make informed expressions about their favorite teams.  I read a lot of the comments made on other sites and there are several that make arguments on one piece of information neglecting to mention other important facts that may offset some of their argument.  I would also like to mention that every model or system or person making an educated guess as to the ordering of teams has flaws.  I try to be as up front about mine as I can.

Finally, I will respond to Joe's expression regarding the girls' C bracket.  Joe, you say you’re ok with FP being a 5, but Galway can’t be a 6 because they play a weak D twice.  FP plays in the same division as Galway and plays the same weak D twice.  The fact is that every team that has a realistic chance at winning sectionals plays bad teams.  The four teams I have ranked ahead of FP all play 2 games against teams that are winless combining for a 0-50 mark.  Every ranked team after FP also plays at least one game against a winless team and most of those play two as well. 

 

For the record, Galway and Lake George (who has played 11 games against D schools to four for Galway) are .0004 apart in their rating and 6 through 10 are all within striking distance of each other.  As for Waterford , I have pointed out their weak schedule (and 43 point average MOV, the largest in the section) and losses out of league and also that I would probably have them #4 without the model’s assistance.

Joe, I appreciate you reading and your comment.  The best way to stay informed about this or any topic is to debate it with other people who have the interest.  I also want to say that set up the prediction model for the boys' and it actually looks more like my personal opinions that the forecast model does.  I'll be revealing those soon.

Recent Sectionals History

Earlier this season I wrote a post about the non-league schedules of Greenwich and Schuylerville.  My contention then was that Schuylerville chose to play a tougher non-league schedule than Greenwich and that sometimes gives clues to how a Coach and AD regard their team's chances in a given season.  Schuylerville's four non-league games are against Cohoes and Broadalbin-Perth, both play in conferences whose average enrollment is greater than that of the Wasaren to which Schuylerville belongs.  The win-loss records of those teams, coming into tonight's games was 14-15.  Greenwich on the other hand chose to play teams in conferences where the average enrollment is less than that of the Wasaren, also to which they belong.  Their win-loss records are 26-36 entering tonight's games.

I still contend that teams who play more difficult teams throughout the season, be it in conference or out, will, on average, perform better in sectionals than those who do not.  A long winded way of saying historically Schuylerville has better odds in sectionals than does Greenwich.  Now, I'll prove it.

Every league, conference and council has teams that represent multiple classes in sectionals.  If for every game that the team has a bye you give them a win, and for every team that does not participate you give them a loss, and add that to their actual win-loss records, you can determine each conference's winning percentage in each class.  Then you can compare how each conference does as it moves up the class ladder.  For example, the Colonial Council, depending on the year, has teams in classes A, B and C.  If you compare their sectional winning percentage in class B to class C you will find it increased by .218.  In other words, the C teams won 21.8% more often than the B teams from the same council.  There are 13 of these comparisons you can make, the Big 10 from AA-A, Suburban AA-A, Foothills AA-A and A-B, Colonial A-B, B-C, Patroon B-C, Wasaren B-C, WAC B-C, C-D, Adirondack, B-C, C-D, CHVL C-D.  In 12 of them the teams in the lower class had a greater sectional winning percentage than the teams in their conference from a higher class.  Only the WAC B's (Mekeel Academy, Saratoga Catholic and Fonda-Fultonville before they moved to the Colonial) performed better than the WAC C's over that five year stretch.

If I were a Coach or AD and I played in a class bigger than my conference and thought I had a team who could win sectionals, I would go out of my way to schedule the best teams available for my non-league games.  Playing better teams pays off in the playoffs.

On another note, there were a few interesting things I noticed as I was compiling information for this post.  These are all from the boys' sectionals as I only have one season of girls' information.  Here they are:

• In the past two sectionals, Amsterdam has defeated the two independent schools in the first round, both as huge underdogs from the 12th and 14th seeds.  They beat Albany Academy two years ago in AA and Green Tech last year in A.
• Shenendehowa has ended Schenectady's season in each of the past 4 sectionals.  
• Nine teams, less than 10% have won 10 or more sectionals games in one classification over the past 5 seasons.  That's an average of more than 2 wins in each sectionals, or they average playing at least one game at the Civic Center.
• Fourteen teams have not won a sectional game over that five year span.  Of that group, only Green Tech, Doane Stuart, Ravena and Columbia are currently over .500 teams.  

Boys Basketball Sectional Forecast #6

Once again I would like to thank the good people at the PS Varsity on poststar.com (in case you aren't reading the girls forecast, in which case you should be) for providing a few box scores I had been missing.  Also I would like to propose another acronym for the rating scale I use.  It runs from champion, finals, final four, final eight, and that mysterious mid-point between the final four and final eight I like to refer to.  Just for simplicity I'm going to call it HF48, so similar to MOV (margin of victory).  However, I won't pull a Rachael Ray on you and say it a thousand times along with its short version.  Happy forecasting. Sectional Forecast #5.

Class AA

(1) Troy  12-1
(16) Niskayuna 3-11
(8) LaSalle 9-6     up 2
(9) Schenectady  7-7     down 1
(5) Shaker  13-2
(12) Catholic Central  6-8     up 2
(4) CBA  13-2
(13) Ballston Spa  5-10     down 1
(3) Bethlehem  12-2
(14) Colonie  7-8     down 1
(6) Guilderland  9-5     up 1
(11) Bishop Maginn  7-8
(7) Columbia  9-5     down 1
(10) Shenendehowa 9-3     down 1
(2) Green Tech  5-1
(15) Saratoga Springs 7-8

Unranked:  Albany, Albany Academy (not participating)

Troy is the only team in the AA bracket that is above the finals rating.  They are significantly ahead of Green Tech who is just above the final four rating and Bethlehem is also above the HF48 line.  What is interesting is that both CBA and Shaker, who are virtually tied, are both below that rating.  CBA would probably cross it by beating Troy, and may do so anyway.  Though I haven't tested it I feel that the HF48 line is the minimum of a title contender, so I hope both end above as I feel they can both win sectionals.  After Shaker no team is above the final eight rating, but I do believe LaSalle, Shen and Schenectady pose threats to knocking someone off in the top.
The boy's AA bracket is not as straight forward as the girls in that Green Tech isn't part of either the Big 10 or the Suburban so I'm not sure where the committee will put them.  What happens if CBA and Troy are tied atop the Big 10 and Shaker and Bethlehem atop the Suburban.  In that case, Green Tech would probably be the overall #1, but where do you put them, B1 or S1?  I can't really analyze it without knowing the answer.  As it stands now, they would be the S1 as Troy is above them in the model and would be the B1, but too much can still happen before the regular season ends to make a call.

Class A

(1) Scotia-Glenville  15-0
(16) Bye
(8) Gloversville  6-9     down 1
(9) Mohonasen  3-12
(5) Lansingburgh  7-6     up 1
(12) Bye
(4) Averill Park  6-9     up 1
(13) Bye
(3) Burnt Hills  6-8
(14) Bye
(6) South Glens Falls  8-6     down 2
(11) Bishop Gibbons  1-14
(7) Queensbury  8-7     up 1
(10) Amsterdam  4-11
(2) Glens Falls  10-3
(15) Bye

Glens Falls had a good week and put some distance between themselves and Burnt Hills.  GF has now moved above the final eight rating, which is good because they are the #2 seed.  Scotia is the biggest favorite at this point and by a lot.  They are just below the final four rating, but given how far they are ahead of everyone else, it may as well be championship level.  Burnt Hills is still a long way away from the final eight rating and they are sitting in third, so that means that six teams rated below the final eight rating will, in fact, reach the final eight.  Seeds 4 through 8 are so closely packed that we may see a number of upsets that may not really be upsets.  This bracket is competitive everywhere except for the first team so it may at least be entertaining.

Class B

(1) Watervliet  8-0
(16) Greenville  4-11     previously unranked
(8) Broadalbin-Perth  5-10     up 1
(9) Ichabod Crane  7-8     down 1
(5) Cairo-Durham  12-2     down 3
(12) Corinth  7-8     up 1
(4) Schuylerville  14-1
(13) Taconic Hills  6-9     down 2
(3) Catskill  16-1     up 2
(14) Chatham 5-11     up 2
(6) Cohoes  8-5
(11) Fonda-Fultonville  6-9     up 1
(7) Ravena  11-4
(10) Hudson  8-8
(2) Mekeel Academy  13-2     up 1
(15) Schalmont  6-9     down 1

Unranked:  Johnstown, Hudson Falls, Tamarac, Granville, Coxsackie-Athens, Cobleskill

This is a solid bracket at the top with Watervliet leading the charge just a hair below the finals rating.  Though none of the 2 through 5 seeds are above the final four rating, they are all really close.  Mekeel has the best chance to get over with two games remaining.  Catskill only has one game left and is in danger of being passed by Schuylerville who has three left.  Cairo's stunning loss to Rensselaer last weekend killed their chance as a #2 seed and will likely have to go through 2 of the top four to win sectionals.  It's not impossible, but it would currently be Schuylerville and Watervliet and I wouldn't bet on it.  Catskill and Mekeel would be a good match-up and one I would like to see.  Cohoes is also above the final eight rating but well below the HF48.  Ravena is just below the final eight rating and both of those teams are dangerous to the upper seeds. Watervliet will be the beneficiary as they won't meet any of those teams in the second round and are almost assured another trip to the Civic Center.

Class C

(1) Lake George  14-1
(16) Waterford  7-8
(8) Stillwater  9-7     down 1
(9) Mayfield  9-7     up 4
(5) Berne-Knox  10-5
(12) Maple Hill  10-7     up 2
(4) Greenwich  11-5
(13) Saratoga Catholic  8-8     down 5
(3) Canajoharie  14-2
(14) Voorheesville  6-7     down 5
(6) Schoharie  12-4
(11) Rensselaer  8-7     up 1
(7) Fort Plain  9-5     up 4
(10) Mechanicville  8-7
(2) Hoosic Valley  14-2
(15) Hoosick Falls  7-7

Unranked:  Berlin, Duanesburg, Whitehall, Cambridge, Middleburgh, Hadley-Luzerne, Galway

I hate this bracket.  I have a bad feeling it's going to blow up in the first round.  I think the model is undervaluing the Colonial teams and I would have Mechanicville as #6.  Schoharie should be ahead of Berne-Knox as they beat them twice.  To be fair, they are really close in the model.  Also, Mechanicville has beaten Stillwater twice so they should be up ahead of them.......
Ok, I'm just going to list them how I think they should be, 1. Lake George (because of the return of the other Wincowski), 2. Hoosic Valley (because they haven't jelled yet with the Academy transfer, though there is still time), 3. Greenwich (they beat Canjo), 4. Canajoharie (they beat Schoharie), 5. Schoharie (they beat Berne who beat Voorheesville, who beat Mechanicville), 6. Mechanicville (they are the best Colonial C),  7. Stillwater (they beat Voorheesville), 8. Berne-Knox, 9. Voorheesville (nice rematch there).  I can't do anymore.  It's completely ridiculous Spa Catholic split with Fort Plain (the win by 47 points) both of who split with Mayfield.  Mayfield lost to Maple Hill by 2.  Rensselaer lost to Berne-Knox by 8 and split with Maple Hill and Hoosick Falls lost to Lake George by 17, Hoosic Valley by 11, Stillwater and Greenwich by 12.  I do not envy the committee on this one, oh my God.
Anyway, back to the point of the column, Lake George is the only team rated above the final four but still have some work to do to be above the finals rating.  HV and Canjo are both above the HF48.  Berne and Schoharie are just above the final eight rating and are nearly tied.  Greenwich is about halfway between Canjo and Berne but below the HF48.  Seeds 7 through 15 are separated by .064 which is about half of the difference between Lake George and Hoosic Valley.  That is why you see such huge swings this week and I expect you will see until the final brackets come out.
Last week this bracket scared me, now I'm terrified.

Class D

(1) Argyle  15-0
(16) Sharon Springs 0-11
(8) Northville  7-9     down 1
(9) St. Johnsville  6-9     down 1
(5) Fort Ann  10-4     down 1
(12) Warrensburg  5-9
(4) North Warren  11-4     down 1
(13) Fort Edward  3-11
(3) Germantown  10-4     up 2
(14) Hawthorne Valley  2-10
(6) Hartford  7-6
(11) Salem  6-9
(7) Doane Stuart  8-6     up 3
(10) Heatly 7-8     down 1
(2) Loudonville Christian  14-0
(15) Bolton  0-15

Unranked: New Lebanon

Argyle has the highest rating of any team in the section and they are still .060 from the champion rating which means it's unlikely you will see anyone with that rating anytime soon.  That being said, they are only just over a tenth greater than Loudonville Christian who is also undefeated in Section 2.  LC is about mid way between finals and final four rating (maybe HF24?).  Regardless it seems like Argyle is on a runaway train in this bracket.  Germantown, North Warren and Fort Ann are all above the final eight rating, but below the HF48.  No one else has a prayer.

Only one more forecast before the final one.  I'll be putting that out on the evening of the 12th (hopefully early so I can go to bed) with as many games as I can get in.  For the sake of time, I'll save the analysis until after the official brackets come out.  I'm looking forward to it.

Girls Basketball Sectional Forecast #6

I'm going to do something a little different this week and let you know exactly where each team stands in relation to history and what the forecast predicts for them.  I would also like to thank the good folks at the PS Varsity at poststar.com for providing some box scores I was unable to obtain previously on my own.  This is only my first year doing this and not everyone is willing to cooperate.  Happy forecasting.  Sectional Forecast #6.

Class AA

(1) Bethlehem  14-0
(16) Bye
(8) Bishop Maginn  8-7     down 1
(9) Guilderland  6-7
(5) Catholic Central  10-4
(12) Schenectady  0-13     up 1
(4) Colonie  12-3
(13) Niskayuna  1-12
(3) Shaker  12-1
(14) Bye
(6) Shenendehowa  8-4
(11) Ballston Spa  2-13     up 1
(7) Columbia  7-7     up 1
(10) Saratoga Springs  6-9
(2) Albany  11-0
(15) Bye

Most of the season this bracket was extremely tight, but after the tweak to the model last week, Bethlehem passed Albany and did so by quite a bit.  Bethlehem is currently the only team that is rated to make the final in AA.  Albany and Shaker are within .020 of the final four rating.  In contrast they are roughly .200 better than the final eight rating so even though they don't meet the historical threshold, they are extremely close, especially in relation to their competition.  Colonie trails Shaker by .050 so they are still more than half way between final eight and four.  Catholic Central at #5 falls below that half way point as they are .050 better than the final eight rating.  Shen is the last team to meet the final eight rating and just barely by .001.  Every other team in the AA historically would lose an opening round game.  Two of them must of course as 8 teams advance but 7 through 10 are separated by .128 which isn't a large amount for a first round match-up.  These games are probably toss-ups.
As the standings currently sit, Bethlehem would have the B2, Catholic Central and the S3, Colonie in their bracket.  Albany would have the S2, Shaker and the B3, Bishop Maginn in their bracket.  I don't think either have the edge here because other than Albany, I don't see any of the Big 10 schools knocking off one of the top 3 Suburban Schools.  The only benefit for Bethlehem is they would get the B4 or S5 in the second round, which is Schenectady due to Troy, Amsterdam and Bishop Gibbons all being in lower classes, and Columbia, while Albany would draw Shen.

Class A

(1) Holy Names  15-0     up 1
(16) Bye
(8) Mohonasen  5-9
(9) Amsterdam  4-8
(5) Glens Falls  9-4
(12) Bye
(4) Queensbury  9-4     down 1
(13) Bye
(3) Averill Park  10-5     up 1
(14) Bye
(6) Scotia-Glenville  7-8     up 1
(11) Lansingburgh  0-15
(7) South Glens Falls  9-6     down 1
(10) Burnt Hills  2-13
(2) Troy  10-2     down 1
(15) Bye

Just as I was starting to worry the model would become too static from this point on, the top four teams switched positions.  When I talk about how playing good teams is beneficial and playing bad teams is detrimental, I couldn't prove it any better than this bracket.  Troy played Schenectady twice this week and won both games, but Schenectady hasn't won a game all year.  Troy not only gave up the #1 seed, but did so by having their rating drop by almost a full tenth of a point.  Holy Names is now the only team with a final four rating, though Troy remains close and is only short of that mark by .028.  On the other side of the coin, Averill Park played Bethlehem and Colonie this week and lost both games.  They were rewarded by moving up a spot and only losing .022 from their rating.  Seeds 3 through 5 are all above the final eight rating, but below the half way point to the final four rating.
If this were the bracket selected by the committee and the seeds were to hold, Holy Names would draw either Queensbury or Glens Falls in the final four while Troy would get Averill Park.  I actually like this set up as I tend to think of the Big 10 and Suburban a step above the Foothills and Colonial.  Either way, Holy Names has the easier draw.

Class B

(1) Tamarac  15-1
(16) Catskill  6-10
(8) Emma Willard  9-5     up 3
(9) Johnstown  8-7     up 3
(5) Greenville  9-6
(12) Broadalbin-Perth  8-7     down 5
(4) Ravena  10-5
(13) Schalmont  9-6     down 4
(3) Taconic Hills  13-3
(14) Fonda-Fultonville  7-8
(6) Corinth  10-5
(11) Hudson Falls 7-9     up 2
(7) Cohoes  11-4     up 1
(10) Hudson  9-6
(2) Watervliet  14-1
(15) Ichabod Crane 5-10

Unranked:  Granville, Albany Leadership, Bishop Gibbons, Coxsackie-Athens, Schuylerville, Cobleskill, Chatham, Cairo-Durham

Some big movers this week in the B bracket, but still not much going on up top.  No one is above the final four rating, but only 3 teams are above the final eight rating so it actually improves their odds somewhat.  Watervliet is about equidistant from Tamarac at #1 and Taconic Hills at #2.  Ravena and Greenville are in the neighborhood of the final eight, but I don't think it's going to matter much.  Tamarac would meet either of them in the final four and I believe will beat either, though I wouldn't take either lightly.  Ravena played Watervliet to 6 points so a good shooting night by them, or a bad one from Tamarac could be enough.  Watervliet's road isn't much different.  Taconic Hills has had a very good year and they'll be a tough out, but there isn't a lot of data from the Patroon schools as they have a 16 game league schedule, thus only 2 non-league games.  It's a tough read, but as a group the Patroon Conference seems a little bit below the Colonial and Wasaren this year.

Class C

(1) Berne-Knox  13-1
(16) Voorheesville 5-9     down 1
(8) Hoosick Falls  10-5
(9) Mekeel Academy 9-6     up 1
(5) Fort Plain  13-1     down 2
(12) Canajoharie  7-7     up 1
(4) Hoosic Valley  13-3     up 1
(13) Mechanicville  8-7     down 1
(3) Maple Hill  16-1     up 1
(14) Whitehall  8-6
(6) Galway  11-4     up 3
(11) Duanesburg  9-5
(7) Lake George  11-4     down 1
(10) Middleburgh  10-5     down 3
(2) Waterford  14-2
(15) Greenwich 7-8     up 1

Unranked:  Albany Academy, Mayfield, Stillwater, Saratoga Catholic, Berlin, Hadley-Luzerne, Rensselaer, Cambridge, Schoharie

The big mover here was Fort Plain dropping from #3 to #5, mostly due to Maple Hill and Hoosic Valley's ratings increasing a great deal.  Another example of who you play and not how well you do, Fort Plain's two wins this week were against teams that are now a combined 5-20, while Hoosic Valley's opponents this week are 12-18 (but just played Tamarac last week) and Maple Hill's are now 28-19.
The first four seeds are below the final four rating, but well the half way point between final eight and four.  Fort Plain falls just below that half way barrier.  The 6 through 10 seeds are essentially tied and a good or bad week by any of them could move them up or down that list accordingly, but currently only Lake George and Galway are above the final eight rating, and just barely.  After that it drops off quite a bit but if you looked you might have noticed that the first 14 seeds are all at or above a .500 winning percentage.
Berne-Knox definitely draws the short straw, even at #1 and I wouldn't be happy with any bracket that features the defending State Champions if I were the #1 seed (which means HV will likely not be the #4).

For the record, I do believe the committee will discount Hoosic Valley's loss to Scotia earlier in the year.  As  I have previously mentioned they essentially lost to a team that no longer exists as Scotia is without their best scorer due to an injury.  As I did last week, if that game were removed, HV would be the #2 with all the other just moving down one spot.  I think that's more likely how the committee will play it.

Class D

(1) Fort Edward  14-0
(16) Salem  0-14
(8) Hartford  4-11     down 1
(9) Northville 6-9     up 1
(5) Germantown  9-4
(12) Bolton  3-11
(4) Heatly  10-5
(13) Sharon Springs  0-10
(3) Argyle  10-5
(14) Doane Stuart  2-10
(6) Warrensburg  7-6     up 2
(11) New Lebanon  4-8     down 2
(7) Loudonville Christian  5-7     down 1
(10) North Warren  5-10     up 1
(2) Fort Ann  13-1
(15) St. Johnsville  0-10     up 1

Unranked:   Hawthorne Valley

Fort Edward remains the only team above the final four rating, though Fort Ann is really close.  FE is also really close to the finals rating so the separation between #1 and #2 is fairly large.  Their biggest threat is likely Argyle who has played them closer than any other this season, but with Argyle at #3 that match-up seems unlikely as Fort Ann has routed Argyle in both meetings.  Argyle is above the half way point in final eight and four, though just barely and Heatly is just thousandths of a percent below the final eight rating.  After Germantown the ratings drop off large and rapid.