Completed Girls Common Opponent Analysis

Here is the completed girls’ COA.  The biggest story in the AA bracket is the potential Albany-Bethlehem showdown in the finals and the COA has each of them getting there relatively easily.  The shocking thing to me was the final margin in the final with Albany coming out on top by 10 points.  While that is within the average +/- variance of 13, it does mean they are extremely close to being the prohibitive favorites which is a bit surprising to me at least.

Perhaps along the same lines showing a stronger than thought Big 10, Troy is coming out ahead of Holy Names in the A bracket.  Both Troy’s advantage and Holy Names' over Averill Park is 8 points, so not without reason either could flip.  Just for fun, Troy has a 20 point edge over Averill Park using the same analysis.

The B bracket is a bit of a question mark as the top seed Watervliet is missing two of their starters.  Still, they have a 17 point edge over Broadalbin-Perth in the second round so we’ll see just how diminished they are missing 40% of their starting five.  If they survive that one, they have a 9 point edge on Taconic Hills and an 11 point edge on Ichabod Crane and over Tamarac in the final by 11, which are not insignificant, but their tournament is certainly a lot tougher now. 

I know it’s a stretch at this point, but if Ravena were to meet Johnstown there would be another situation where there is a stark difference between the 4 team and 5 team comparisons.  I’m interested in situations like this because it provides information whether or not there is any legitimacy to such a stretch of an analysis.  In this case Ravena has the edge in the 4 team comp by 18 and Johnstown has a 5 point edge in the 5 team comp. 

The C and D brackets, while they each have a couple close games are basically chalk and in the case of the D bracket, really not even close.  The one game I think could be interesting is Berne-Knox and Greenwich which is another game where the 4 and 5 team comps don’t match up.  If the four team comp is right, BKW wins going away, but watch out if the five team comp is right.  I do however believe that both C and D finals will be good games and fun to watch.

	Class AA
S1	Bethlehem		Bethlehem		Bethlehem	26	Bethlehem	18
B8	Bye
S6	Guilderland		Columbia	7
S5	Columbia
S3	Colonie		Colonie		Colonie	14
B6	Bye
S7	Bye		Catholic Central
B2	Catholic Central								Albany	10
S2	Shaker		Shaker		Shaker	39	Albany	18
B7	Bye
S6	Bye		Bishop Maginn
B3	Bishop Maginn
S4	Shenendehowa		Shenendehowa	33	Albany	34
S7	Niskayuna
S8	Bye		Albany
B1	Albany

	Class A
1	Troy		Troy		Troy	22	Troy	19
16	Bye
9	Amsterdam		South Glens Falls	14
8	South Glens Falls
5	Mohonasen		Mohonasen		Queensbury	6
12	Bye
13	Bye		Queensbury
4	Queensbury								Troy	8
3	Averill Park		Averill Park		Averill Park	10	Holy Names	8
14	Bye
11	Bye		Glens Falls
6	Glens Falls
7	Scotia-Glenville		Scotia-Glenville		Holy Names	24
10	Bye
2	Holy Names		Holy Names
15	Bye

	Class B
1	Watervliet		Watervliet	50	Watervliet	8	Watervliet	13
16	Emma Willard	12
9	Broadalbin-Perth		Schalmont	5
8	Schalmont
5	Taconic Hills		Taconic Hills	30	Cohoes	5
12	Catskill	11
13	Ichabod Crane	21	Cohoes	18
4	Cohoes								Watervliet	11
3	Ravena		Ravena	14	Ravena	9	Tamarac	5
14	Fonda-Fultonville	23
11	Hudson		Hudson Falls	26
6	Hudson Falls
7	Johnstown		Johnstown	19	Tamarac	4
10	Greenville
15	Albany Leadership	10	Tamarac	44
2	Tamarac

	Class C
1	Hoosic Valley		Hoosic Valley	16	Hoosic Valley	12	Hoosic Valley	22
16	Middleburgh	3
9	Lake George		Fort Plain	6
8	Fort Plain
5	Duanesburg		Duanesburg	6	Hoosick Falls	1
12	Galway	20
13	Voorheesville	20	Hoosick Falls	14
4	Hoosick Falls								Hoosic Valley	6
3	Berne-Knox		Berne-Knox	17	Berne-Knox	9	Maple Hill	4
14	Canajoharie	5
11	Greenwich		Waterford	6
6	Waterford
7	Mekeel Academy		Mekeel Academy	2	Maple Hill	19
10	Mechanicville
15	Albany Academy	6	Maple Hill	54
2	Maple Hill

	Class D
1	Fort Edward		Fort Edward		Fort Edward	55	Fort Edward	43
16	Bye
9	Germantown		Germantown	4
8	North Warren
5	Northville		Northville		Northville	2
12	Bye
13	Bye		Warrensburg
4	Warrensburg								Fort Edward	15
3	Argyle		Argyle		Argyle	37	Fort Ann	18
14	Bye
11	Bolton		Bolton	1
6	Heatly
7	Hartford		Hartford	14	Fort Ann	22
10	New Lebanon
15	Bye		Fort Ann
2	Fort Ann

Completed Boys Common Opponent Analysis

Here is the completed COA for the boys.  You’ll notice several upsets in AA which again goes back to the CBA-Bethlehem game.  If you include all the first round games into the analysis (which I can’t for my official predictions) CBA wins by 2 instead of losing by 6 to Guilderland.  Troy loses by 2 instead of 6 to Bethlehem.  Even if Troy and CBA were to advance, they would both lose to Shaker and Green Tech respectively using the COA so the results wouldn’t change overall.  Doing the analysis this way, Green Tech is clearly the best team in AA and it really doesn’t matter who they play.  Their biggest test will have to be in CBA who has the experience to offset any talent or age gaps (if there are any).  There are still several really good games left in this bracket and it should be entertaining all the way through.

There is also an interesting case in the A bracket where Averill Park and Glens Falls play in the second round.  There are three cases where they played the same team and three cases where a team is once removed, where an opponent’ opponent played the other team.  In the first, Averill Park wins by 17, in the second Glens Falls wins by 25.  We’ll see which is right or if the average is a better predictor.

In the B bracket, almost every single game after the first round is less than 10 points, which basically means it can go either way.  So far, the average variance between what I have calculated using this method and what actually happened is 12 points in either direction.  This has the potential to be a very exciting tournament.

The C bracket is even more of a mess than the B.  I have had to do multiple contingency calculations because almost every game, even in the first round, calculates to less than 10.  Twelve of the fifteen games are below ten points and four are below five.

The opposite is true in the D bracket where only three of the games are less than ten.  The interesting thing here is how poorly the CHVL compares.  Granted, they are mostly using five team comps but I use what I can.  We’ll see how it plays out.  For the record, the standings I posted yesterday will be using the current match-up calculations, not this bracket.  I’m working on the girls’ bracket as well.  That should be done soon.

	Class AA
S1	Shaker		Shaker	32	Shaker	18	Shaker	4
B8	Albany
B4	LaSalle		Columbia	19
S5	Columbia
S3	Bethelehem		Bethlehem	29	Bethlehem	6
B6	Catholic Central
S7	Saratoga Springs		Troy	1
B2	Troy								Green Tech	19
S2	Shenendehowa		Shenendehowa	25	Green Tech	18	Green Tech	39
B7	Bishop Maginn
S6	Colonie		Green Tech	33
B3	Green Tech
S4	Guilderland		Guilderland	21	Guilderland	3
B5	Schenectady
S8	Niskayuna	3	CBA	4
B1	CBA

	Class A
1	Scotia-Glenville		Scotia-Glenville		Scotia-Glenville	30	Scotia-Glenville	34
16	Bye
9	Mohonasen		Mohonasen	1
8	Gloversville
5	South Glens Falls		South Glens Falls		South Glens Falls	1
12	Bye
13	Bye		Lansingburgh
4	Lansingburgh								Scotia-Glenville	24
3	Glens Falls		Glens Falls		Glens Falls	4	Burnt Hills	18
14	Bye
11	Bishop Gibbons		Averill Park	25
6	Averill Park
7	Queensbury		Amsterdam	2	Burnt Hills	19
10	Amsterdam
2	Burnt Hills		Burnt Hills
15	Bye

	Class B
1	Watervliet		Watervliet	29	Watervliet	17	Watervliet	7
16	Tamarac	15
9	Ichabod Crane		Broadalbin-Perth	8
8	Broadalbin-Perth
5	Cohoes		Cohoes	35	Cohoes	8
12	Taconic Hills
13	Fonda-Fultonville		Catskill	2
4	Catskill								Watervliet	5
3	Mekeel Academy		Mekeel Academy	34	Mekeel Academy	9	Mekeel Academy	3
14	Hudson Falls
11	Schalmont		Cairo-Durham	13
6	Cairo-Durham
7	Ravena		Ravena	15	Schuylverville	4
10	Hudson
15	Granville	5	Schuylverville	28
2	Schuylerville

	Class C
1	Hoosic Valley		Hoosic Valley	26	Hoosic Valley	7	Hoosic Valley	7
16	Waterford	7
9	Fort Plain		Rensselaer	6
8	Rensselaer
5	Schoharie		Stillwater	3	Stillwater	3
12	Stillwater
13	Voorheesville		Voorheesville	6
4	Canajoharie								Hoosic Valley	3
3	Greenwich		Greenwich	8	Mechanicville	7	Lake George	6
14	Mayfield	6
11	Hoosick Falls		Mechanicville	8
6	Mechanicville
7	Berne-Knox		Berne-Knox	17	Lake George	2
10	Maple Hill
15	Saratoga Catholic	9	Lake George	41
2	Lake George

	Class D
1	Argyle		Argyle		Argyle	47	Argyle	29
16	Bye
9	Heatly		St. Johnsville	16
8	St. Johnsville
5	North Warren		North Warren	19	North Warren	2
12	Warrensburg
13	Fort Edward		Germantown	20
4	Germantown								Argyle	34
3	Fort Ann		Fort Ann		Fort Ann	9	Fort Ann	13
14	Bye
11	Salem		Hartford	5
6	Hartford
7	Doane Stuart		Northville	6	Loudonville Christian	13
10	Northville
15	Bye		Loudvonville Christian
2	Loudonville Christian