In my last post I mentioned how well the Broadalbin-Perth boys started off with two solid wins in their first two games. Well, they followed that up with a 20 point loss to Cohoes yesterday. With the loss comes the increasing likelihood that their two wins were against lesser teams and the decreasing likelihood they will be around to make a strong push in March. I tend not to take too much stock in any one game result, and would caution anyone else to do the same, especially in the upper classes. Twenty point margins however aren't your typical losses for serious contenders within their own class.
In tonight's games, Troy and Albany Academy put up big numbers on Bishop Maginn and Shen respectively. If Troy stays in the A bracket this year, this kind of performance could be a sign of good things. I'm going to operate under the assumption Albany Academy won't be competing in Section 2's sectionals this year as well, but a 20 point win over Shen is a good start to anyone's season.
I think Rensselaer is my early season darkhorse in the C bracket. They had a good run in Sectionals last year and are off to a good start this year winning their first two games. As an early sign the girl's C bracket may not change much, Waterford already recorded a near 50 point win over another CHVL team (which apparently a good two-thirds of Class C could do regularly if last year's sectionals are any good measure) and Hoosic Valley just beat Catholic Central by 3 after losing their best player to graduation.
There isn't a ton of information to analyze yet, but scoreboard watching, even this early can be interesting. I have to go input some scores so I can go to bed sometime before tomorrow.
Tuesday, December 3, 2013
Sunday, December 1, 2013
Opening Weekend
The season has started and already there are tidbits you can pull from the action. On the boys' side, the two teams that really stand out are Broadalbin-Perth and Saratoga Catholic. BP won both of their games over Cobleskill and Fonda, both schools in their class and both games by solid margins. Saratoga Catholic also won both of their games, each by over 20 points, both over schools in classes above them. It's tough to know what that means for them at this point, but it certainly can't be a bad thing.
Saratoga Catholic's second win was over Schuylerville, who according to the Post Star lost its coach after last season to retirement. That may have been a sign they didn't have the same level of talent coming back this year, but Schuylerville hasn't had too many bad seasons in recent memory so any down year is somewhat shocking to see, especially this early. The Wasaren League in general didn't have a great weekend. Stillwater also lost by 20 points to Mechanicville, and though Hoosick Falls and Greenwich each won their openers by respectable margins, HF's win was over an Argyle team that lost one of the best players in the Section last season (though his brother may not be too far behind making 8 threes) and Greenwich beat an historically weak Berlin team. Argyle may still be a contender in March, but the loss of Joey Lufkin to graduation can't be overlooked.
On the girls' side, not much looks out of place. The Colonial council started strong again with Cohoes and Watervliet each picking up fairly easy wins over Ballston Spa and Bishop Maginn.
Overall there isn't much to go on yet, but as I have stated in the past, these non-league games go a long way to telling us how these Leagues match up with each other, and ultimately how things could turn out in Sectionals. For now though, that's a long way off. The games aren't even in the model yet. The busy Holiday weekend slowed me down a bit. Speaking of which, I hope everyone had a great Holiday.
Now we can sit back and relax, Basketball is finally here.
Saratoga Catholic's second win was over Schuylerville, who according to the Post Star lost its coach after last season to retirement. That may have been a sign they didn't have the same level of talent coming back this year, but Schuylerville hasn't had too many bad seasons in recent memory so any down year is somewhat shocking to see, especially this early. The Wasaren League in general didn't have a great weekend. Stillwater also lost by 20 points to Mechanicville, and though Hoosick Falls and Greenwich each won their openers by respectable margins, HF's win was over an Argyle team that lost one of the best players in the Section last season (though his brother may not be too far behind making 8 threes) and Greenwich beat an historically weak Berlin team. Argyle may still be a contender in March, but the loss of Joey Lufkin to graduation can't be overlooked.
On the girls' side, not much looks out of place. The Colonial council started strong again with Cohoes and Watervliet each picking up fairly easy wins over Ballston Spa and Bishop Maginn.
Overall there isn't much to go on yet, but as I have stated in the past, these non-league games go a long way to telling us how these Leagues match up with each other, and ultimately how things could turn out in Sectionals. For now though, that's a long way off. The games aren't even in the model yet. The busy Holiday weekend slowed me down a bit. Speaking of which, I hope everyone had a great Holiday.
Now we can sit back and relax, Basketball is finally here.
Monday, November 18, 2013
Enrollment Numbers Updated
I just updated the NYSPHSAA enrollment numbers page for 2013-2014 along with the five year averages. Last season I wrote a post in which I referred to Bishop Maginn and their declining enrollment and whether or not they still belonged in class AA. I'm happy to see their enrollment has climbed back up a notch to approximately the 2011-2012 enrollment. An argument can still be made to their class standing, but it's a good sign for Bishop Maginn and Section 2 to see them rebound a bit.
In other housekeeping news, from the Section 2 website, a few schools have changed classifications this year, those being; Cobleskill and Hudson Falls from B to A and Mechanicville, Voorheesville, Stillwater, and Hoosick Falls from C to B.
There was also a minor change to the cutoff numbers for the classes, also from the Section 2 website, AA now includes all schools with enrollments over 910, down from 925. The A schools are now including enrollments 480 to 909, down from 525 to 924. Class B went from 305 - 524 to 280 - 479, class C from 175 - 304 to 170 - 279 and class D went down from any enrollment under 175 to under 170.
These changes reflect an overall trend of reduced enrollment throughout New York State. Section 2 alone has declined in each of the past 6 years (that's all the info I have, it could be more). I haven't asked, but I did the exercise once just to see how one might accomplish setting class standards throughout the State. If you list all the schools in the State (available on the NYSPHSAA website) and line them up in enrollment order, then divide the total number of schools by 5 it gives you roughly the number of schools in each class. All you have to do is draw a line after each fifth. You need to adjust here and there to account for the line being in the middle of multiple schools with the same enrollment, but you get the idea.
As the cutoff numbers for each class decline, it represents a total decline in enrollment over the whole set of schools that make up the New York State Public High Schools, as each fifth has to reduce it's limits to fit in enough schools. It's probably not a great sign for our State, but doesn't matter too much for the model. I find it interesting either way.
In other housekeeping news, from the Section 2 website, a few schools have changed classifications this year, those being; Cobleskill and Hudson Falls from B to A and Mechanicville, Voorheesville, Stillwater, and Hoosick Falls from C to B.
There was also a minor change to the cutoff numbers for the classes, also from the Section 2 website, AA now includes all schools with enrollments over 910, down from 925. The A schools are now including enrollments 480 to 909, down from 525 to 924. Class B went from 305 - 524 to 280 - 479, class C from 175 - 304 to 170 - 279 and class D went down from any enrollment under 175 to under 170.
These changes reflect an overall trend of reduced enrollment throughout New York State. Section 2 alone has declined in each of the past 6 years (that's all the info I have, it could be more). I haven't asked, but I did the exercise once just to see how one might accomplish setting class standards throughout the State. If you list all the schools in the State (available on the NYSPHSAA website) and line them up in enrollment order, then divide the total number of schools by 5 it gives you roughly the number of schools in each class. All you have to do is draw a line after each fifth. You need to adjust here and there to account for the line being in the middle of multiple schools with the same enrollment, but you get the idea.
As the cutoff numbers for each class decline, it represents a total decline in enrollment over the whole set of schools that make up the New York State Public High Schools, as each fifth has to reduce it's limits to fit in enough schools. It's probably not a great sign for our State, but doesn't matter too much for the model. I find it interesting either way.
Monday, November 4, 2013
The Un-Preseason Preview
We're getting close to that time of year when we will start to read articles about what you can expect this season from your favorite teams. Will CBA rebound to regain AA supremacy? Will Watervliet, Lake George and Argyle be able to repeat as State Champions? Will the Albany girls have enough left to fend off Bethlehem for a second straight year? Truth be told, I haven't a clue.
I sit and await those articles along side you. As a fan, I want to know these answers and I'll read whatever article I can in the weeks prior to the start of the season. Insider information is always interesting and it's something of which I am a consumer, but it's not something that helps what I do.
The models I use don't care how many Seniors you are returning this year, or if you won the State title last year, or if you didn't even win a game. It only cares how you perform this year, and therein lies its beauty. The preseason analysis, while fun to read, doesn't help me very much. It isn't going to make me something I'm not. I won't be delving into my non-existent Rolodex (yes I grew up in the 80's, and no I don't yet own a smartphone) of coaching contacts for inside information.
Last season was my first season writing this blog. I set ambitious goals for myself and, unfortunately, for you. For not meeting them I am regretful, but there are only so many hours in a day and I don't regret the other things that kept me away from fulfilling those goals. Looking back, they were probably unattainable anyway. But, I tried my best and that's all I can ask of anyone.
This year I'll be focusing solely on the games and the models. Every game is fed into the models and therefore every game is important. It will be more of the same from the end of last year. Model changing games will be discussed and weekly brackets around the first of the year will be released. Maybe I'll even break out something new, just for fun. I do have one contact I've been working with, and hopefully that will come to fruition. I'll keep you updated if it does.
In the meantime, read the good work from the big guys. I will be.
I sit and await those articles along side you. As a fan, I want to know these answers and I'll read whatever article I can in the weeks prior to the start of the season. Insider information is always interesting and it's something of which I am a consumer, but it's not something that helps what I do.
The models I use don't care how many Seniors you are returning this year, or if you won the State title last year, or if you didn't even win a game. It only cares how you perform this year, and therein lies its beauty. The preseason analysis, while fun to read, doesn't help me very much. It isn't going to make me something I'm not. I won't be delving into my non-existent Rolodex (yes I grew up in the 80's, and no I don't yet own a smartphone) of coaching contacts for inside information.
Last season was my first season writing this blog. I set ambitious goals for myself and, unfortunately, for you. For not meeting them I am regretful, but there are only so many hours in a day and I don't regret the other things that kept me away from fulfilling those goals. Looking back, they were probably unattainable anyway. But, I tried my best and that's all I can ask of anyone.
This year I'll be focusing solely on the games and the models. Every game is fed into the models and therefore every game is important. It will be more of the same from the end of last year. Model changing games will be discussed and weekly brackets around the first of the year will be released. Maybe I'll even break out something new, just for fun. I do have one contact I've been working with, and hopefully that will come to fruition. I'll keep you updated if it does.
In the meantime, read the good work from the big guys. I will be.
Sunday, June 23, 2013
The Doldrums of Summer
When I was growing up baseball was always my favorite game and the Yankees my favorite team. Baseball was where I started my fascination with statistics and eventually math. My brother and I would play Strat-o-Matic and keep the stats on sheets of paper. I've come a long way. Over the past several years basketball has edged its way up the ladder, long ago overtaking football. But now, with the Yankees hovering near unwatchable, another summer with LeBron James as Champion, and the Celtics entering another decade of despair the summer seems to be moving a bit slower than normal.
After spending an inordinate amount of time on this blog for four months then watching the college basketball tournament and then the NBA playoffs I'm a little beside myself with no basketball. Mini hoops in the pool will have to do.
Monday, March 18, 2013
State Champions
Section 2 had an outstanding year in the State tournament this year with 4 State Champions at 4 different levels in both boys and girls basketball. Congratulations to the Troy girls, Watervliet, Lake George and Argyle boys for their title run through the state. It's an amazing accomplishment and also really hard to do.
I was able to watch the three boys finals thanks to Time Warner Cable. Agyle was so impressive in their win and it was unbelievable the rebounding advantage they had over a much bigger and taller team. It just shows how with hustle and hard work you can still outplay someone who might be bigger faster and stronger. To that point, no one showed more resolve in the Sectionals and State Tournament than Lake George. I picked them to lose to Berne-Knox, who they beat by two, and Hoosic Valley, who they beat by three in sectionals. In the State tournament they beat Moravia in OT after being down by 7 midway through the fourth quarter and beat Pine Plains for the title who started 5 kids 6'4" or taller. Even the announcers on TV were amazed Lake George was even in the game.
After watching the first half, I still wasn't blown away by Lake George's athleticism (other than Joel Wincowski), but it's amazing how well they play together as a unit. I don't mean to knock them and I hope it's not coming off that way, they are incredible athletes, it's just that they play better than athleticism would suggest (again, it's really hard to win a State title and you have to be really good to even get the chance to play for one). It's a credit to each of the players on that team and their coach that they are able to play to a level greater than the sum of their parts. It's something only a few teams can say and they were rewarded with a State title.
The Watervliet game had me worried, especially since I thought they would blow it open in the second half. You have to admire their poise in the final minute of regulation to keep their head, make baskets and play outstanding defense. Also their ability to shrug off losing a 16 point lead and having to go to overtime where they outscored Babylon by 12.
On the whole, I couldn't be more proud of the athletes from these four teams hailing from the section I where I live and was born and raised and from the classification, Class C, to which I belonged. Congratulations again to everyone for an outstanding season!
I was able to watch the three boys finals thanks to Time Warner Cable. Agyle was so impressive in their win and it was unbelievable the rebounding advantage they had over a much bigger and taller team. It just shows how with hustle and hard work you can still outplay someone who might be bigger faster and stronger. To that point, no one showed more resolve in the Sectionals and State Tournament than Lake George. I picked them to lose to Berne-Knox, who they beat by two, and Hoosic Valley, who they beat by three in sectionals. In the State tournament they beat Moravia in OT after being down by 7 midway through the fourth quarter and beat Pine Plains for the title who started 5 kids 6'4" or taller. Even the announcers on TV were amazed Lake George was even in the game.
After watching the first half, I still wasn't blown away by Lake George's athleticism (other than Joel Wincowski), but it's amazing how well they play together as a unit. I don't mean to knock them and I hope it's not coming off that way, they are incredible athletes, it's just that they play better than athleticism would suggest (again, it's really hard to win a State title and you have to be really good to even get the chance to play for one). It's a credit to each of the players on that team and their coach that they are able to play to a level greater than the sum of their parts. It's something only a few teams can say and they were rewarded with a State title.
The Watervliet game had me worried, especially since I thought they would blow it open in the second half. You have to admire their poise in the final minute of regulation to keep their head, make baskets and play outstanding defense. Also their ability to shrug off losing a 16 point lead and having to go to overtime where they outscored Babylon by 12.
On the whole, I couldn't be more proud of the athletes from these four teams hailing from the section I where I live and was born and raised and from the classification, Class C, to which I belonged. Congratulations again to everyone for an outstanding season!
Monday, March 11, 2013
The Long Winding Road of Data Entry
So I've started compiling all of the box scores I have into a spreadsheet so I can list each player's stats on the site and update them annually so you too can see how many points each player has scored over their careers. The problem is, it takes forever. I have completed 3 of the 180 plus section 2 teams' schedules. It's not as bad as it sounds because I'm putting both teams in at once for each box score so by the time I get to Watervliet there won't be any games left to input. Still it's slow going.
As far as the State Tournament goes, we still have four of the five boys teams remaining and all of those that won did so by healthy amounts and the one who didn't kept it to a handful only losing by five. The girls didn't fare as well with only two of the five advancing, but even in defeat they held their own averaging five point losses as Scotia did in the boys. It's also nice they are on television because who wants to drive to Onondaga Community College or Plattsburgh? Not I.
Good luck to those who remain and congrats on a great season for those who don't. Keep watching.
As far as the State Tournament goes, we still have four of the five boys teams remaining and all of those that won did so by healthy amounts and the one who didn't kept it to a handful only losing by five. The girls didn't fare as well with only two of the five advancing, but even in defeat they held their own averaging five point losses as Scotia did in the boys. It's also nice they are on television because who wants to drive to Onondaga Community College or Plattsburgh? Not I.
Good luck to those who remain and congrats on a great season for those who don't. Keep watching.
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