First Round Sectional Standings

I'm still working on the Common Opponent Analysis, but I've got most of the rest of the boys tournament done and will have that up as soon as I can.  In the meantime, I thought I would update you on how the different models are doing, as well as the Section 2 committee.  Please see the standings below.  One thing to note is that the committee has a built in advantage in the preliminary and first rounds as their picks get home court advantage whereas mine are at their mercy.  Most of the games the rest of the way are on neutral floors (I know there are still some that have home court but I believe they are the better seeds).  While I'm not overly thrilled with the girls' standings, they could be a lot worse and given how little information I have in the database it's not too bad.  There's also a lot of games left to make up some ground.  You can also see how much better the boys' model is doing with just two more years of games.

Boys                                        W            L         PCT.  
Section 2 Committee                31           7          .816
Sectional Forecast Rating         31            7         .816
Common Opponents Analysis  30            8          .789
Sectional Prediction Rating       29            9          .763


Girls                                        W            L         PCT.  
Sectional Prediction Rating       28            4          .875
Section 2 Committee                26            6          .813
Common Opponents Analysis  23             9         .719
Sectional Forecast Rating         21            11        .656

Upsets and Other Random Thoughts

So far I've seen three upsets tonight, Hoosick Falls over Mechanicville in the boys and in the girls Ichabod Crane over Cohoes and Greenwich over Waterford.  In the final forecast I posted before the seedings came out, Mechanicville was ahead of Hoosick Falls in the rating by .017, but was ranked 6 to Hoosick Falls' 10. That is a very small difference, one that can be made up by one of your opponents losing a game they should have won.  In that sense, I'm not totally shocked at the result.  One reason I picked (in my biased analysis) Greenwich over Mechanicville was because of the threat Hoosick Falls brought to the table.  It was a safer pick as I didn't think Greenwich's first round opponent wasn't going to cause any problems.  In this case the model was right to give less credit to Mechanicville's record that other may have suggested.  On the girls' side however, the same cannot be said.

Upsets happen all the time, and sometimes it's difficult to determine a true upset from poor seeding by the committee (or my model).  Ichabod over Cohoes was a true upset and it happens, that's why no one gets all the games right.  Greenwich over Waterford however, was not.  I was extremely worried about this game and how the models perceived it after Schuylerville crushed Emma Willard.  This is a case where the model was extremely wrong and after witnessing how poorly the CHVL has done so far, I'm pretty convinced Waterford's undefeated league record was entirely due to how bad the rest of the conference was as opposed to how good they were.  I do think they are better than this showing, but certainly not a contender in this tournament.  The good news for me is that this is better data than the one season I previously had and next year the model will be better for it.

A couple other games of note, mostly for their MOV's.  In the boys, Berne-Knox beat Maple Hill by 30 points.  I heard some talk this might be a close game and the COA had it at 17 points in BKW's favor.  Since I have them beating Lake George, I'm going to take that as a good sign.  Also, the COA had Troy only 1 point ahead of Saratoga Springs, and while I wasn't buying that it would be that tight of a game (COA relied heavily on the CBA-Bethlehem game that did not feature Marini), I was surprised to see it was only a 13 point game.  The Suburban has been a little inconsistent this year, but their COA numbers matched up really well against the Big 10 and I really do believe this is their best chance in years to dethrone CBA and the Big 10 from AA supremacy.

Updated:
One quick point of clarification.  When I was referring to how the model evaluated Mechanicville's chances, I was referring to their SFR which was below that of a team to win a first round game, not their actual seed as the committee and the forecast both had them as 6 seeds.

Boys First Round COA

Alright, here is the first round for the boys.  There are a ton of close games in here and mostly anything under 10 is a toss up.  To reiterate, the numbers next to the names are the points spreads that the analysis came out with.  The Big 10 was hurt a lot by CBA's loss to Bethlehem even though they were missing Marini, it all counts the same by this method.  I wouldn't bet on that upset.  Almost all the games used that as one of their reference points which tilted things a bit farther than one might expect.

	Class AA
S1	Shaker		Shaker	32
B8	Albany
B4	LaSalle		Columbia	19
S5	Columbia
S3	Bethelehem		Bethlehem	29
B6	Catholic Central
S7	Saratoga Springs		Troy	1
B2	Troy
S2	Shenendehowa		Shenendehowa	25
B7	Bishop Maginn
S6	Colonie		Green Tech	33
B3	Green Tech
S4	Guilderland		Guilderland	21
B5	Schenectady
S8	Niskayuna	3	CBA	4
B1	CBA

	Class A
1	Scotia-Glenville		Scotia-Glenville
16	Bye
9	Mohonasen		Mohonasen	1
8	Gloversville
5	South Glens Falls		South Glens Falls
12	Bye
13	Bye		Lansingburgh
4	Lansingburgh
3	Glens Falls		Glens Falls
14	Bye
11	Bishop Gibbons		Averill Park	25
6	Averill Park
7	Queensbury		Amsterdam	2
10	Amsterdam
2	Burnt Hills		Burnt Hills
15	Bye

	Class B
1	Watervliet		Watervliet	29
16	Tamarac	15
9	Ichabod Crane		Broadalbin-Perth	8
8	Broadalbin-Perth
5	Cohoes		Cohoes	35
12	Taconic Hills
13	Fonda-Fultonville		Catskill	2
4	Catskill
3	Mekeel Academy		Mekeel Academy	34
14	Hudson Falls
11	Schalmont		Cairo-Durham	13
6	Cairo-Durham
7	Ravena		Ravena	15
10	Hudson
15	Granville	5	Schuylverville	28
2	Schuylerville

	Class C
1	Hoosic Valley		Hoosic Valley	26
16	Waterford	7
9	Fort Plain		Rensselaer	6
8	Rensselaer
5	Schoharie		Stillwater	3
12	Stillwater
13	Voorheesville		Voorheesville	6
4	Canajoharie
3	Greenwich		Greenwich	8
14	Mayfield	6
11	Hoosick Falls		Mechanicville	8
6	Mechanicville
7	Berne-Knox		Berne-Knox	17
10	Maple Hill
15	Saratoga Catholic	9	Lake George	41
2	Lake George

	Class D
1	Argyle		Argyle
16	Bye
9	Heatly		St. Johnsville	16
8	St. Johnsville
5	North Warren		North Warren	19
12	Warrensburg
13	Fort Edward		Germantown	20
4	Germantown
3	Fort Ann		Fort Ann
14	Bye
11	Salem		Hartford	5
6	Hartford
7	Doane Stuart		Northville	6
10	Northville
15	Bye		Loudvonville Christian
2	Loudonville Christian

Girls First Round Common Opponent Analysis (COA)

I did mention this analysis takes forever right?  I'm only through the first round of the girls which means I have a long night ahead of me for the boys.  Basically, I use the head to head match-ups when I can and go out from there.  I stopped at common opponents five teams away, for example, Waterford played Duanesburg who played Columbia who played Tamarac who played Greenwich.  Even that is quite a bit of a stretch but for some of these match-ups you have to go that far just to get one point of reference.  By definition this means that there is less and less value in those types.  Luckily we have strength in numbers in most cases with at least four or more of those cases.  I'm still not entirely thrilled with it, but you have to have something.  I listed the average point variances of those common opponents as well so you can see how close things are.  I would say anything under 10 should be considered toss-ups which means the CHVL has the potential to get shut out in this sectionals.

COA

	Class AA
S1	Bethlehem	Bethlehem
B8	Bye
S6	Guilderland	Columbia	7
S5	Columbia
S3	Colonie	Colonie
B6	Bye
S7	Bye	Catholic Central
B2	Catholic Central
S2	Shaker	Shaker
B7	Bye
S6	Bye	Bishop Maginn
B3	Bishop Maginn
S4	Shenendehowa	Shenendehowa	33
S7	Niskayuna
S8	Bye	Albany
B1	Albany

	Class A
1	Troy	Troy
16	Bye
9	Amsterdam	South Glens Falls	14
8	South Glens Falls
5	Mohonasen	Mohonasen
12	Bye
13	Bye	Queensbury
4	Queensbury
3	Averill Park	Averill Park
14	Bye
11	Bye	Glens Falls
6	Glens Falls
7	Scotia-Glenville	Scotia-Glenville
10	Bye
2	Holy Names	Holy Names
15	Bye

	Class B
1	Watervliet	Watervliet	50
16	Emma Willard
9	Broadalbin-Perth	Schalmont	5
8	Schalmont
5	Taconic Hills	Taconic Hills	30
12	Catskill
13	Ichabod Crane	Cohoes	18
4	Cohoes
3	Ravena	Ravena	14
14	Fonda-Fultonville
11	Hudson	Hudson Falls	26
6	Hudson Falls
7	Johnstown	Johnstown	19
10	Greenville
15	Albany Leadership	Tamarac	44
2	Tamarac

	Class C
1	Hoosic Valley	Hoosic Valley	16
16	Middleburgh
9	Lake George	Fort Plain	6
8	Fort Plain
5	Duanesburg	Duanesburg	6
12	Galway
13	Voorheesville	Hoosick Falls	14
4	Hoosick Falls
3	Berne-Knox	Berne-Knox	17
14	Canajoharie
11	Greenwich	Waterford	6
6	Waterford
7	Mekeel Academy	Mekeel Academy	2
10	Mechanicville
15	Albany Academy	Maple Hill	54
2	Maple Hill

	Class D
1	Fort Edward	Fort Edward
16	Bye
9	Germantown	Germantown	4
8	North Warren
5	Northville	Northville
12	Bye
13	Bye	Warrensburg
4	Warrensburg
3	Argyle	Argyle
14	Bye
11	Bolton	Bolton	1
6	Heatly
7	Hartford	Hartford	14
10	New Lebanon
15	Bye	Fort Ann
2	Fort Ann

One final note, I calculated off the teams I had winning the play-in games so I could do the whole tournament based on the original brackets and make it comparable to the others I've presented.  I'll also be doing it with the updated winners for comparisons sake.

Boys Sectional Breakdown

As I have previously mentioned I'm doing three different statistical analyses (I think that's the right word) using the Sectional Forecast Rating (SFR as I will start referring to it, not sure how I didn't think of that one before) that you have been reading about all year, the Sectional Prediction Rating (SPR) and the Common Opponents Analysis (COA).  Unfortunately I just haven't had the time to complete all the games for the COA so I'll have to update you as I get them done.  It takes forever to sort through all the combinations.  Anyway, I'll also be telling you what I think in my own biased opinion.

SFR

	Class AA
S1	Shaker		Shaker	Shaker	Troy
B8	Albany
B4	LaSalle		Columbia
S5	Columbia
S3	Bethelehem		Bethlehem	Troy
B6	Catholic Central
S7	Saratoga Springs		Troy
B2	Troy					Troy
S2	Shenendehowa		Shenendehowa	Green Tech	Green Tech
B7	Bishop Maginn
S6	Colonie		Green Tech
B3	Green Tech
S4	Guilderland		Guilerland	CBA
B5	Schenectady
S8	Ballston Spa		CBA
B1	CBA

Class A                 1  Scotia-Glenville    Scotia-Glenville Scotia-Glenville Scotia-Glenville     16  Bye           9  Mohonasen    Gloversville        8  Gloversville           5  South Glens Falls    South Glens Falls Lansingburgh     12  Bye        13  Bye    Lansingburgh        4  Lansingburgh    Scotia-Glenville      3  Glens Falls    Glens Falls Glens Falls Glens Falls     14  Bye        11  Bishop Gibbons    Averill Park        6  Averill Park           7  Queensbury    Queensbury Burnt Hills     10  Amsterdam           2  Burnt Hills    Burnt Hills     15  Bye         Class B                 1  Watervliet    Watervliet Watervliet Watervliet     16  Greenville           9  Ichabod Crane    Broadalbin-Perth        8  Broadalbin-Perth           5  Cohoes    Cohoes Catskill     12  Taconic Hills        13  Fonda-Fultonville    Catskill        4  Catskill    Watervliet      3  Mekeel Academy    Mekeel Academy Mekeel Academy Mekeel Academy     14  Hudson Falls        11  Schalmont    Cairo-Durham        6  Cairo-Durham           7  Ravena    Ravena Schuylerville     10  Hudson        15  Corinth    Schuylerville        2  Schuylerville         Class C                 1  Hoosic Valley    Hoosic Valley Hoosic Valley Hoosic Valley     16  Waterford           9  Fort Plain    Rensselaer        8  Rensselaer           5  Schoharie    Schoharie Canajoharie     12  Stillwater        13  Voorheesville    Canajoharie        4  Canajoharie    Lake George      3  Greenwich    Greenwich Greenwich Lake George     14  Mayfield        11  Hoosick Falls    Mechanicville        6  Mechanicville           7  Berne-Knox    Berne-Knox Lake George     10  Maple Hill        15  Saratoga Catholic    Lake George        2  Lake George         Class D                 1  Argyle    Argyle Argyle Argyle     16  Bye           9  Heatly    St. Johnsville        8  St. Johnsville           5  North Warren    North Warren Germantown     12  Warrensburg        13  Fort Edward    Germantown        4  Germantown    Argyle      3  Fort Ann    Fort Ann Fort Ann Loudonville Christian     14  Bye        11  Salem    Hartford        6  Hartford           7  Doane Stuart    Northville Loudonville Christian     10  Northville        15  Bye    Loudvonville Christian        2  Loudonville Christian      SPR    Class AA           S1   Shaker  Shaker Shaker Troy    B8   Albany     B4   LaSalle  LaSalle    S5   Columbia     S3   Bethelehem  Bethlehem Troy    B6   Catholic Central     S7   Saratoga Springs  Troy    B2   Troy  Troy  S2   Shenendehowa  Bishop Maginn Green Tech Green Tech    B7   Bishop Maginn     S6   Colonie  Green Tech    B3   Green Tech     S4   Guilderland  Schenectady CBA    B5   Schenectady     S8   Ballston Spa  CBA    B1   CBA       Class A               1  Scotia-Glenville  Scotia-Glenville Scotia-Glenville Scotia-Glenville     16  Bye         9  Mohonasen  Gloversville        8  Gloversville         5  South Glens Falls  South Glens Falls Lansingburgh     12  Bye      13  Bye  Lansingburgh        4  Lansingburgh  Scotia-Glenville      3  Glens Falls  Glens Falls Glens Falls Glens Falls     14  Bye      11  Bishop Gibbons  Averill Park        6  Averill Park         7  Queensbury  Queensbury Burnt Hills     10  Amsterdam         2  Burnt Hills  Burnt Hills     15  Bye       Class B               1  Watervliet  Watervliet Watervliet Watervliet     16  Tamarac         9  Ichabod Crane  Broadalbin-Perth        8  Broadalbin-Perth         5  Cohoes  Cohoes Catskill     12  Taconic Hills      13  Fonda-Fultonville  Catskill        4  Catskill  Mekeel Academy      3  Mekeel Academy  Mekeel Academy Mekeel Academy Mekeel Academy     14  Hudson Falls      11  Schalmont  Cairo-Durham        6  Cairo-Durham         7  Ravena  Ravena Schuylerville     10  Hudson      15  Corinth  Schuylerville        2  Schuylerville       Class C               1  Hoosic Valley  Hoosic Valley Hoosic Valley Hoosic Valley     16  Waterford         9  Fort Plain  Rensselaer        8  Rensselaer         5  Schoharie  Schoharie Schoharie     12  Stillwater      13  Voorheesville  Canajoharie        4  Canajoharie  Lake George      3  Greenwich  Greenwich Greenwich Lake George     14  Mayfield      11  Hoosick Falls  Mechanicville        6  Mechanicville         7  Berne-Knox  Berne-Knox Lake George     10  Maple Hill      15  Saratoga Catholic  Lake George        2  Lake George       Class D               1  Argyle  Argyle Argyle Argyle     16  Bye         9  Heatly  St. Johnsville        8  St. Johnsville         5  North Warren  North Warren Germantown     12  Warrensburg      13  Fort Edward  Germantown        4  Germantown  Argyle      3  Fort Ann  Fort Ann Fort Ann Loudonville Christian     14  Bye      11  Salem  Hartford        6  Hartford         7  Doane Stuart  Northville Loudonville Christian     10  Northville      15  Bye  Loudonville Christian        2  Loudonville Christian    Class AA is tough this year because unlike a number of previous years I actually think the Suburban has a chance to dethrone the Big 10.  I also think Green Tech as a solid chance.  My contenders are CBA, Troy, Green Tech, Shaker and Bethlehem.  A lot has to go right for all of these teams to win, but CBA is the favorite again this year.  Their loss to Bethlehem was without Marini and with Troy missing one of their best guards to suspension that drops them a tick behind the favorites.  LaSalle has also been solid this year and I wouldn't be surprised if they made some noise early in the tournament.  This bracket is actually a lot harder than I thought it would be.  Everyone but CBA will have a strong test in the second round which also factors in to them being the favorite.  I wouldn't be shocked if any of the teams I've mentioned or Shen make the final four.  My prediction: Troy over Shaker, CBA over Green Tech, CBA over Troy.  Potential upsets: Just about every game from the second round on and a couple in the first. In class A it's pretty unanimous that Scotia-Glenville probably runs away with it, but this could be one of the more entertaining brackets in all of sectionals.  Much like on the girls' side, a lot of these teams are good and it should make for some good games.  I would have loved to see Troy play in this bracket because I think it would have been an epic showdown in the final with SG, but instead we'll probably see them face off against one of the Suburban teams.  I would actually prefer it that way as we know they will crush any of the Foothills teams as they have already proven.  It's really hard to list only one team as having a chance, but unless something out of the ordinary happens I do believe that's the case.  Burnt Hills, Averill Park and Glens Falls would be in that second tier and coincidentally, they are all on the same side of the opposite bracket from Scotia.  My prediction: Scotia over South Glens Falls, Burnt Hills over Averill Park, Scotia over Burnt Hills.  No significant upsets as, in this case, the difference between 3 and 6 isn't that great. I know the larger schools get a lot of pub and talk, but having grown up in a smaller school I actually find their tournaments to be a lot more intriguing most years.  There are some years, like this year's potential Albany-Bethlehem match-up in girls AA that pique my interest, but I often find the most compelling games in the smaller classes.  For me, this year is no different.  In class B alone there are ten or so games I would like to see in person.  In the second round there are two potential games featuring Patroon teams against Colonial and WAC teams and one Colonial against Wasaren team and they should all be really good games.  Ultimately this is Watervliet's tournament to lose, but if they give it up, Mekeel Academy, Schuylverville, Cairo-Durham, Catskill, Cohoes and Ravena all stand in line with a shot.  The first real test of this tournament will be Catskill against Cohoes.  It will tell us how much punch the Patroon will have in this tournament.  I believe the Patroon is weaker than the other conferences, but they could prove me wrong early on.  I could pick this six different ways and still get it wrong so here it goes.  My prediction: Watervliet over Catskill, Mekeel Academy over Schuylverville, Watervliet over Mekeel Academy.  Potential upsets: Schalmont over Cairo-Durham, Ravena over Schuylerville, Mekeel Academy over Watervliet. When I was growing up they always had a CC and a C bracket and I never really liked it (even though my alma mater won two C titles and lost two CC-C finals).  I always thought if they were going to split them they should give each of the top two schools a bracket, but I like it even better this way.  The most deserving team is going to win and that's the way it should be.  This year contenders for that title are Hoosic Valley, Lake George, Greenwich, Mechanicville and Berne-Knox.  The reason I stop at Berne-Knox and not include Schoharie and Canajoharie is pretty simple.  Neither of them have a player at the level of Garrett Pitcher.  I have seen more than one class C championship won by a team with a dynamic big man and I wouldn't count out BKW for that reason.  Canajoharie has beaten Schoharie twice and should meet them again in the second round and I just don't see Canajoharie as a major threat (maybe a minor threat) against Hoosic Valley.  The challenge for Hoosic Valley could well come in the second round against a very dangerous Rensselaer team who knocked off Cairo-Durham late in the year and gave Catskill a good run in their second meeting.  The other side of the bracket is a nightmare.  All four of the top seeds could lose to each other, and some even have a threat in the first round.  Lake George's two losses both came at the hands of Joey Lufkin's Argyle and while there may not be a Joey Lufkin in this bracket LG has yet to face any team the caliber Greenwich, Mechanicville, or Berne-Knox.  As tough as HV's second round game is, LG's may prove to be even tougher.  This is the first and only time this year I'm going to go out on a limb.  My prediction: Hoosic Valley over Schoharie (via Voorheesville), Berne-Knox over Greenwich (via Mechanicville), Hoosic Valley over Berne-Knox.  Potential upsets: Rensselaer over Hoosic Valley, Stillwater over Schoharie, Voorheesville over Canjoharie, Hoosick Falls over Mechanicville, Maple Hill over Berne-Knox, Voorheesville over Schoharie, Mechanicville over Greenwich, Berne-Knox over everyone else. The D bracket is actually very similar to the A bracket in that there is one team that should run away with it (Argyle) and then another group of pretty good teams behind them.  Those teams would be Loudonville Christian, North Warren, Germantown, and Fort Ann.  The battle in this bracket should be for second place and I honestly don't see a lot of upsets happening though a few could.  The two CHVL teams are solid and should be able to hold their seeds as should Fort Ann and Hartford.  Doane Stuart is looking to win their first sectional game in at least 5 years and have a home game as an advantage.  Unfortunately, Northville is probably underseeded at 10 and will give them a run for their money.  My prediction: Argyle over Germantown, Loudonville Christian over Fort Ann, Argyle over Loudonville Christian.  Potential upsets: Northville over Doane Stuart, Hartford over Fort Ann, Fort Ann over Loudonville Christian. Good luck to everyone and let the best teams win.....and my predictions be right.