Monday, November 18, 2013

Enrollment Numbers Updated

I just updated the NYSPHSAA enrollment numbers page for 2013-2014 along with the five year averages.  Last season I wrote a post in which I referred to Bishop Maginn and their declining enrollment and whether or not they still belonged in class AA.  I'm happy to see their enrollment has climbed back up a notch to approximately the 2011-2012 enrollment.  An argument can still be made to their class standing, but it's a good sign for Bishop Maginn and Section 2 to see them rebound a bit.

In other housekeeping news, from the Section 2 website, a few schools have changed classifications this year, those being; Cobleskill and Hudson Falls from B to A and Mechanicville, Voorheesville, Stillwater, and Hoosick Falls from C to B.

There was also a minor change to the cutoff numbers for the classes, also from the Section 2 website, AA now includes all schools with enrollments over 910, down from 925.  The A schools are now including enrollments 480 to 909, down from 525 to 924.  Class B went from 305 - 524 to 280 - 479, class C from 175 - 304 to 170 - 279 and class D went down from any enrollment under 175 to under 170. 

These changes reflect an overall trend of reduced enrollment throughout New York State.  Section 2 alone has declined in each of the past 6 years (that's all the info I have, it could be more).  I haven't asked, but I did the exercise once just to see how one might accomplish setting class standards throughout the State.  If you list all the schools in the State (available on the NYSPHSAA website) and line them up in enrollment order, then divide the total number of schools by 5 it gives you roughly the number of schools in each class.  All you have to do is draw a line after each fifth.  You need to adjust here and there to account for the line being in the middle of multiple schools with the same enrollment, but you get the idea.

As the cutoff numbers for each class decline, it represents a total decline in enrollment over the whole set of schools that make up the New York State Public High Schools, as each fifth has to reduce it's limits to fit in enough schools.  It's probably not a great sign for our State, but doesn't matter too much for the model.  I find it interesting either way.

Monday, November 4, 2013

The Un-Preseason Preview

We're getting close to that time of year when we will start to read articles about what you can expect this season from your favorite teams. Will CBA rebound to regain AA supremacy? Will Watervliet, Lake George and Argyle be able to repeat as State Champions? Will the Albany girls have enough left to fend off Bethlehem for a second straight year? Truth be told, I haven't a clue.

I sit and await those articles along side you. As a fan, I want to know these answers and I'll read whatever article I can in the weeks prior to the start of the season. Insider information is always interesting and it's something of which I am a consumer, but it's not something that helps what I do.

The models I use don't care how many Seniors you are returning this year, or if you won the State title last year, or if you didn't even win a game. It only cares how you perform this year, and therein lies its beauty. The preseason analysis, while fun to read, doesn't help me very much. It isn't going to make me something I'm not. I won't be delving into my non-existent Rolodex (yes I grew up in the 80's, and no I don't yet own a smartphone) of coaching contacts for inside information.

Last season was my first season writing this blog. I set ambitious goals for myself and, unfortunately, for you. For not meeting them I am regretful, but there are only so many hours in a day and I don't regret the other things that kept me away from fulfilling those goals. Looking back, they were probably unattainable anyway. But, I tried my best and that's all I can ask of anyone.

This year I'll be focusing solely on the games and the models. Every game is fed into the models and therefore every game is important. It will be more of the same from the end of last year. Model changing games will be discussed and weekly brackets around the first of the year will be released. Maybe I'll even break out something new, just for fun. I do have one contact I've been working with, and hopefully that will come to fruition. I'll keep you updated if it does.

In the meantime, read the good work from the big guys. I will be.