Wednesday, February 26, 2014

Revisiting CCHS v Nisky and Other Stuff

I'm sure I wasn't alone in my initial shock at seeing that Niskayuna beat Catholic Central.  I bring it up because I 'm doing a little back track work on the Common Opponent Analysis like I did last year (as everything seems to be this year a little late) and was shocked again when it came out that CCHS was only an average 5 points better than Nisky.  I was aware that CCHS's MOV wasn't outstanding but I didn't suspect they would be that close to a four win team from the Suburban.

It actually clears things up a bit however as the average variance on the COA last year was +/- 12.5 meaning essentially the range for the game was from a 17 point CCHS win to a 7 point loss.  While this method isn't perfect it does provide some much needed perspective for some folks.

As far as tonight's games I'm more convinced than ever that Twitter is the greatest invention ever. I basically watched play by play of the historic Guilderland v Columbia game.  I wasn't really rooting for either so it made it that much more fun.  After Nails got hurt I did kind of hope Guilderland would pull it out just so the final wouldn't be a letdown after such a great game. At the same time Spa Catholic made a huge run to knock out the Wincowski led defending State Champs of Lake George.  Here again while I wasn't rooting for either but knowing LG was down their second best player I'd rather not have to ask "what if" in a Title game depending on its outcome.

Finally, the model is still two games back after the second round and desperately needs Green Tech to win for any chance to make up ground. As of right now they are ahead 40-35 so I can momentarily breathe.

I'll be heading up on Saturday for the C final and if they are fast enough the B as well.  I'll try to tweet if service is good. I'm sure everyone will be updating the scores do I'll do my best to stick to commentary.  Also, on a side note, I typed this on my phone so I apologize for any typos.  My computer is not well.

Friday, February 21, 2014

Round 2 Class D

Some good games tonight but first I want to get the D games out of the way.

Class D
Argyle over Northville
Fort Ann over North Warren
Hartford over St. Johnsville
Germantown over Salem

Since Waterford already lost, I'm not 3 games back and quickly running out of opportunities to make up ground.  The D bracket probably won't afford any opportunities either, at least not in this round.  Germantown should beat Salem as well.  They have each played Heatly, Germantown winning by an average of 25.5 points and Salem winning by 14.  That seems pretty clear as well.  Northville lost to North Warren by 13 who Argyle beat by 28.

Using that same Northville v NW comp, Northville lost to St Johnsville twice by an average of 6 points, putting NW ahead of St J by 7.  NW split with Hartford with an average of 2 points variance so they are essentially even and both were 11-6 in the Adirondack League.  So, one would think Hartford should be the favorite.  Finally, Fort Ann and North Warren might seem like a lock for FA since they won the first meeting by 25, however, NW played Hartford six days after the seedings were released in a make-up game and beat them by 14.  The reason I point that out is that Hartford won that first meeting by 18, so there was a 32 point swing.  More than likely that was a lack of interest on Hartford's part, but you never know

Onto tonight.  HV and Greenwich moved on to face each other on Wednesday.  They have already played twice with HV winning both by an average margin of 20.5.  That doesn't mean everything, but they should be favored and it will be an upset if Greenwich pulls it out.

In the B bracket, all the higher seeds won with the exception of Mekeel Academy who lost to Mechanicville.  Perhaps the surprising thing here is that two Colonial teams will be meeting in the semis, not the finals.  I think both of these games, Mechanicville v Voorheesville and BP v Hoosick Falls should be great games to watch and any of the four could win the whole thing.  It's also nice to see 3 different leagues represented and rightfully represented.  Cohoes may be better than any of them over the course of a season, but the four that are left are all deserving.

On the Girls side, we get to see another Shaker / Shen showdown in the semis as both moved on relatively easily tonight.  Hoosic Valley, Greenwich and Maple Hill also advanced.  The Maple Hill v Greenwich matchup is well worth watching if you get the chance.  Greenwich can lay claim to beating HV earlier this year, something MH wasn't able to accomplish.  Unlike last year, where the best game was HV v HF in the semis and there was a blowout in the final, the winner of Greenwich v MH should make the final a game that is actually watchable.

On a programming note, I signed up for twitter the other day, I'm @cdsals.  I haven't actually tweeted anything yet, but I followed a number of people tonight keeping tabs on the scores.  I intend to go to a couple games sometime this week.  I'll let you know which ones and I'll tweet some scores while I'm there.  And, thank you for finding me, those of you who have.  I'm not entirely sure what happened, but I'm roughly 50% on my own now so I appreciate your support.  Thanks.

1st Round Update and 2nd Round Picks

For the first round, the model didn't have a great go at it.  For the boys, the Committee went 27-7 and the model went 25-9.  On the girls side a similar outcome with the committee going 27-5 and the model going 25-7.  So I'm two games behind on both.  Let's see if there are any chances for redemption in round 2.

Boys Class AA
Shen over Saratoga
Green Tech over Shaker
Guilderland over CBA
Columbia over Niskayuna

No room for making up ground on these, as the model and the Committee agree on all four.  This may be the last chance for the non-Suburban schools to prove themselves as there are only two of them left.  Shaker did not finish the season on a high note, neither did Green Tech.  They have both now played Bethlehem with Shaker winning by 17 and GT winning by 20.  On a neutral floor this seems reasonably even and will probably come down to how they match up against each other.  I still think GT has every chance to win the whole thing so I'll take them.  

Guilderland and CBA also have one common opponent, Ballston Spa.  Guilderland won by 14, CBA by 10.  Almost the same spread as the GT-Shaker comp.  I really believe that Guilderland is a better team than CBA and should win but it's just so hard to count out the experience on CBA's coaching staff.  Ultimately I believe it comes down to players however and I will take Guilderland.  

The other two games are both rematches of Suburban contests earlier this year and since Columbia and Shen prevailed then, there's no reason to think they shouldn't now.

Class A
Scotia over Lansingburgh
Averill Park over Amsterdam
Gloversville over Queensbury
Troy over Mohonasen

No chances for a make up here either.  Scotia, Troy and Gloversville should all move on with relative ease.  The Averill Park v Amsterdam game should be a good one.  Amsterdam has had some very good games this year and is definitely capable of winning.  They have no common opponents, however, Mekeel Academy played both Amsterdam (winning by 11) and Gloversville (winning by 4).  That puts Gloversville +7 on Amsterdam.  G'ville played AP twice to an average of +8.  That's the very definition of a toss-up.  I'll take Amsterdam just because they have a greater upside (even if they don't often show it).

Class B
Voorheesville over Catskill
Mekeel Academy over Mechanicville
Broadalbin-Perth over Hudson
Hoosick Falls over Schalmont

Nothing going on here either, in terms of making up ground.  This has the potential to be a very interesting group of games however.  V'ville and HF should move on, and by how much, if they do, will tell a lot as to who has the better chance at winning the whole thing.  BP is greatly improved since the beginning of the year when they lost to Cohoes and they did so by a smaller margin than Hudson.  Hudson has obviously improved as well since they just beat Cohoes after losing to them earlier in the year as well.  I like BP in this one but, as with all the games in the B bracket from here out, nothing would shock me.  Mekeel and Mechanicville has the potential to be a great game.  Mekeel is very talented having beaten the #3 class A school and Mechanicville has played everyone close even if they haven't pulled out the victory.  I think the hard nosed style of the Colonial wins out and M'ville advances to face Voorheesville in a Colonial showdown in the semis.

Class C
Hoosic Valley over Canajoharie
Waterford over Greenwich
Saratoga Catholic over Rensselaer
Lake George over Maple Hill

The only chance here is the one I'm least confident in Waterford over Greenwich.  The model has them very close, but they do have a better score.  I would find that to be a surprising outcome if Waterford were to win.  HV gets a rematch with their semifinal opponent from last year and the results should be the same with an easy win for HV.  This is the round in which they had a close call against Rensselaer last year, so I wouldn't discount it being closer than you might thing, but there's no reason to believe HV shouldn't move on.

Spa Catholic against Rensselaer should be the best game of the round.  SC is a bit of an unknown as they don't get out of the WAC too much.  Even their two games against Wasaren teams were contradictory so I really don't know what to expect from them.  The Patroon plays a different style than the northern conferences and sometimes it can take an opponent by surprise.  I'll take Rensselaer with the upset.

The only question with Lake George is will Andrew Zibro play and if he doesn't how much of an effect will it have on them.  Wincowski is capable of carrying a team offensively as he showed last year in Sectionals and States, but defensively it could be a question mark.  I won't discount Mr. Wincowski at this stage of the game and LG will move on.

I have to run but I got through the C's done.  I'll update the D's a bit later.

Tuesday, February 18, 2014


It's taken me a bit to actually be able to write something after digesting the scores from tonight.  First of all, one of the things I hate about how they rank the AA teams is that there is no true #1.  I'm not sure why we need to appease both leagues by giving each a #1, but it's mostly pointless.  The better league is going to end up with more teams in the end anyway so why not just do it right to begin with so we can get the better match-ups at the end of the tournament.

Now that I've gotten that out of the way, I don't recall ever seeing a #1 seed lose in the first round of a Section 2 sectional tournament, regardless of how AA's are seeded.  I'm sure it's happened, but I really don't remember it if it did.  CCHS losing in the first round to Niskayuna is beyond words stunning.  I have stated I thought their youth and inexperience could play a factor in Sectionals but I never thought they would lose in the first round.  The other stunning thing about the AA bracket is that only one Big 10 team remains.  I suppose it's not shocking that team is CBA, but they didn't light the world on fire tonight either.  Six of the 8 remaining teams are from the Suburban with the other being Green Tech. 

Last year I thought the Big 10's dominance was going to end at the hands of Green Tech.  I was wrong, but unless CBA puts together a run worthy of their name the streak may finally come to an end.

I don't know if anyone else saw this score or not, but the Post Star is reporting that Cohoes lost to Hudson 58-57.  Now, the B bracket is insanely deep so I'm not surprised to see an upset, I'm actually slightly shocked there wasn't any more, but Cohoes beat Hudson by 33 earlier this year.  I'm not a huge fan of the Patroon this year in the B's, but they still have two teams left and at this point, I could see any one of the remaining teams winning in the second round. 

This doesn't look to be a great year for the model so far, but as I've said the first round is not kind to me.  I have a built in disadvantage of any upsets I have playing on the road and not a neutral floor.  Where the model should make up some ground is in the later rounds.  At least I hope.  I'll update the records once the first round is over. 

Considering I was speechless prior to writing this, I'm rather impressed I got that many words out.

Saturday, February 15, 2014

Boys Sectional Seeding Analysis and Predictions C - D

Feeling a bit more rested now, finally.  Below is the first round breakdown for C and D.

Class C
First Round
Hoosic Valley over Waterford
Berlin over Canajoharie
Waterford over Schoharie
Greenwich over Fort Plain
Saratoga Catholic over Hadley-Luzerne
Rensselaer over Berne-Knox
Duanesburg over Maple Hill
Lake George over Middleburgh

The top four seeds shouldn't have any trouble in class C, beyond them however, many things are possible.  The only upset the model picked is Berlin over Canajoharie.  I actually disagree with that one, I see Canajoharie facing off with Hoosic Valley in a rematch of the last year's semifinal game.  Canajoharie handled Duanesburg pretty well in their only meeting and Duanesburg, though 2-0 vs Waterford, managed 3 and 2 point victories.  Waterford split with Berlin losing by 24 early in the year, but rebounding to beat them by 10 later in the season.  The head to head comps between Waterford and Berlin suggest that the second score, with Waterford winning by 10, is the more likely of the two to be accurate.  If that's the case, even with an inflated win by Canjo over Duanesburg, Canjo looks better.

The other CHVL - WAC matchup could also be up for grabs between Schoharie and Waterford.  Duanesburg played both teams twice.  They were +5 vs Waterford and -7 vs. Schoharie.  I see this as a pick em game, but I'll give the edge to the home team  and say Waterford hangs on.  In another WAC pick em game, Duanesburg is the higher seed against Maple Hill, but I feel Maple Hill got a bit of a raw deal on their seed.  They split with Rensselaer, losing only by six in their final meeting and yet they are 4 spots lower in the seeding.  MH also beat Berne-Knox by 18 who split with Duanesburg and had a -5 point margin for the two games.  The reason I call it a pick em is that Berne-Knox also played and lost to Taconic Hills, but by only 3.  MH lost to TH twice by a combined 11.  I don't know which score is more accurate of telling what's going to happen when MH meets Duanesburg, but it gives pause, and along with MH playing in Duanesburg makes me think it could easily go either way.  That said, I'll take Maple Hill for the upset. 

The final first round game is between, two other WAC - Patroon teams with Rensselaer facing Berne-Knox.  Given how much of a roll Rensselaer is on, and being at home, and the previous scores already discussed I'll take Rensselaer.  The reason I think it might be closer than scores might indicate is the time off for Rensselaer could lead to some cooling off.  I don't think that will happen, but you never know what can happen when you get the chance to sit around not playing anybody.

Class D
First Round
Loudonville Christian over Northville
St. Johnsville over Fort Edward
Heatly over Salem

Heatly v Salem will probably be a good game as neither team was able to separate themselves from being average.  With the exception of Argyle and Lake George, the competition in the Adirondack and CHVL isn't too different and both racked up records just under 0.500.  They don't have any common opponents however, Loudonville Christian beat Bolton by 14 and Salem beat them by 15.  LC and Heatly played twice and averaged a 1 point margin.  Heatly played a much tougher non-league schedule but had zero wins to show for it.  Honestly, I have no idea how this is going to turn out.  I'll go with the home team.

Loudonville Christian played Galway and won by 20, while Northville played and beat Galway three times averaging just under a 19 point margin.  This too could be a toss-up, but I'll again take the home team due to the large distance Northville needs to travel. 

Finally, St. Johnsville and Fort Edward could also be a tight game.  North Warren beat Northville and Fort Edward by 13 and 14 respectively.  Northville lost to SJ twice by an average of 6 points.  Of the three opening round games in class D, this has the largest certainty and even this I wouldn't write in stone.  Again, in class D these schools are so far apart, though SJ and FE are less so than the other two, I find it to be just as important to be the home team than to actually be better.  Riding on a bus for an hour or two just isn't a good way to prepare to play basketball. That said, I'll take St. Johnsville, but I bet at least one of those home teams loses.

Quick update on the B first round.  The forecast went 3-1, the Committee went 4-0.

Wednesday, February 12, 2014

Boys Sectional Seeding Analysis and Predictions AA - B

I don't remember exactly how I did this last year, but I'm going to tell you who, according to the forecast will win each game in the tournament.  Tonight I'll do the first round, since I don't yet know the second round matchups.  I'll also throw some of my own opinions in there.  What's the point of having a blog if you don't give your opinions right?

Class AA
First Round
Shen over Bishop Maginn
Schenectady over Saratoga
Shaker over Colonie
Green Tech over Bethlehem
Guilderland over LaSalle
Ballston Spa over CBA
Columbia over Albany
CCHS over Niskayuna

The only upset the forecast is giving us is Ballston Spa over CBA.  I don't think that will happen, but I do recall a player from Ballston Spa predicting they would beat CBA last year in the first round.  They didn't of course, but Ballston Spa is greatly improved this year and CBA is not. It seems bizarre to think that CBA could possibly lose a first round game in Sectionals after all those years dominating the Class, but I don't think it out of the realm of the possible for it to happen.  The model sees each team as less than a first round winner.  Once I have a few more years of this in, if I last that long, I'm going to maintain a database of each Sectional game and compare the ratings to what actually happened and see if I can find some trends that will help sort out games like CBA and Ballston Spa, where neither would be favored to win an opening round game if not for playing each other. 

The only other game the model has as close is Schenectady and Saratoga Springs, which I think could go either way.  I'll give the edge to Schenectady.  The other game I'll be watching is Shaker and Colonie.  I may not mention rivalries often, as Joe has pointed out, mostly because the model doesn't take that into account.  Each regular season rivalry game is a very small portion of a regular season schedule, and since a lot of schools have rivalries, they can cancel each other out.  My alma mater had three that I seem to recall.  But, in a Sectional game, where it's one and done, a rivalry is certainly one to watch.  Shaker did not play well down the stretch and though they beat Colonie by 19 earlier this year, it's still a game I'll be keeping an eye on.

Class A
First Round
Lansingburgh over Burnt Hills
Mohonasen over South Glens Falls

Well, there isn't much going on here in the first round.  Quite honestly, this may be the worst bracket I've ever seen.  Only three teams have a rating above a first round score.  The average score of the bottom 11 teams is 0.189.  Burnt Hills didn't have a very good year, but looking outside the model, they could beat Lansingburgh.  Lansingburgh had an inconsistent year, playing some good teams close and others not so close.  This game will depend more on which Lansingburgh team shows up, than on Burnt Hills.

The other first round game should not be much of one.  Mohonasen nearly just beat Guilderland.  We may eventually see some upsets in this bracket, but unless one of the losers is Troy or Scotia, it won't be Earth shattering.

Class B
Play-In Round
Stillwater over Ravena
Fonda over Tamarac
Hudson over Granville
Corinth over Coxsackie-Athens

This bracket is ridiculous.  Ravena played two teams that Stillwater played and had a better showing against both, so I'm not sure I'm in agreement with the model on that one.  The next two seem clear to me.  Both Fonda and Hudson should be able to take care of business against Tamarac and Granville respectively.  I'm not very high on the Patroon this year in the B bracket so even though the Adirondack doesn't usually do great here, I'll take Corinth over Coxsackie.

First Round (known matchups)
Catskill over Watervliet
Mechanicville over Johnstown
Broadalbin-Perth over Schuylerville
Taconic Hills over Schalmont

Now it's even more ridiculous.  Any of these could be upsets and I don't think it would be overly shocking.  That doesn't mean I won't pick them however.  I'm not sure the last time Watervliet lost in the first round but at one point they were near 20 straight seasons making the Civic Center.  It's hard to discount that expectation in their locker room regardless of how up and down their season was.  The fact that this is an 8 - 9 game says a lot about the bracket.  It could easily be a 4 - 5 matchup in other years.  I'll take Watervliet and hope history backs me up.  Mechanicville has been slightly off the top of the Colonial, but they should have enough to get by Johnstown.  The tough thing about this bracket is, one bad night ends your season, no doubt, and even a good one may not be enough.  M'ville will need a bad night to not get by round 1. 

In recent years BP and Schuylerville have been playing in the regular season and chose not to this year.  Schuylerville is not what they have been in the past 10 years or so and BP has come on strong at the end of the year and I believe they'll move on.  If there were ever a game that cried out for an upset it would be Taconic Hills and Schalmont.  Taconic lost to Ravena by 15 whereas Schalmont beat Ravena by 21.  Now, that was Taconic's second worse game of the year and was in the top 5 or so best games for Schalmont.  Regardless, a 36 point gap is tough to explain away by a bad night v a good night.  Taconic has one of the greatest disparities between what their average winning percentage would be based on their MOV and their actual winning percentage.  In fact, Schalmont's 10-8 record resulted in a +77 MOV, where TH's 14-4 only netted them a +63.  I don't think anyone would argue that the level of competition in the Patroon was better than the Colonial as well.  This game may be close, by I'll take Schalmont.

I wore a tie for 17 hours yesterday and took two plane rides, two cab rides, walked four blocks with a zero wind chill, worked a full day today and about 3 hours tonight on this.  I'm tired.  I'll do the rest tomorrow.

Final Girls Forecast Rankings

Let me preface once again that this formula needs a bit of retooling.  I'm not overly happy with it, but I'm carrying it through for those interested.  For those not, you may stop reading now.  I laid out what the rankings indicate in the boys Final so you may reference those if need be.  I'll be doing some analysis as the night and days progress.

1 Shaker    0.808 AA
2 Albany    0.798 AA
3 Bethlehem    0.685 AA
4 Shenendehowa    0.602 AA
5 Catholic Central    0.509 AA
6 Columbia    0.494 AA
7 Saratoga Springs    0.401 AA
8 Guilderland    0.340 AA
9 Colonie    0.330 AA
10 Niskayuna    0.236 AA
11 Ballston Spa    0.137 AA
12 Bishop Maginn    0.116 AA
13 Schenectady    0.095 AA

1 Holy Names    0.755 A
2 Averill Park    0.742 A
3 Queensbury    0.728 A
4 Glens Falls    0.682 A
5 Albany Leadership    0.647 A
6 Troy    0.624 A
7 Scotia-Glenville    0.611 A
8 Amsterdam    0.381 A
9 Hudson Falls    0.356 A
10 South Glens Falls    0.340 A
11 Lansingburgh    0.217 A
12 Burnt Hills    0.085 A
13 Mohonasen    0.059 A
14 Gloversville  (0.060) A

1 Tamarac    0.760 B
2 Watervliet    0.715 B
3 Hudson    0.686 B
4 Greenville    0.640 B
5 Fonda-Fultonville    0.578 B
6 Johnstown    0.542 B
7 Hoosick Falls    0.514 B
8 Emma Willard    0.510 B
9 Schalmont    0.508 B
10 Corinth    0.503 B
11 Ichabod Crane    0.500 B
12 Cohoes    0.446 B
13 Mechanicville    0.404 B
14 Stillwater    0.404 B
15 Catskill    0.392 B
16 Voorheesville    0.391 B
17 Bishop Gibbons    0.378 B
18 Chatham    0.369 B
19 Ravena    0.316 B
20 Taconic Hills    0.307 B
21 Coxsackie-Athens    0.300 B
22 Broadalbin-Perth    0.175 B
23 Albany Academy    0.167 B
24 Cobleskill    0.139 B
25 Cairo-Durham    0.108 B
26 Schuylerville    0.097 B
27 Granville  (0.031) B

1 Maple Hill    0.793 C
2 Waterford    0.767 C
3 Lake George    0.711 C
4 Middleburgh    0.622 C
5 Hoosic Valley    0.618 C
6 Fort Plain    0.585 C
7 Canajoharie    0.579 C
8 Greenwich    0.563 C
9 Galway    0.486 C
10 Mayfield    0.446 C
11 Berne-Knox    0.420 C
12 Mekeel Academy    0.369 C
13 Schoharie    0.358 C
14 Cambridge    0.339 C
15 Saratoga Catholic    0.327 C
16 Duanesburg    0.297 C
17 Berlin    0.203 C
18 Whitehall    0.127 C
19 Rensselaer    0.069 C
20 Hadley-Luzerne    0.062 C

1 Fort Edward    0.778 D
2 Fort Ann    0.728 D
3 Heatly    0.674 D
4 Warrensburg    0.579 D
5 Germantown    0.560 D
6 North Warren    0.450 D
7 Argyle    0.409 D
8 Hartford    0.408 D
9 Northville    0.373 D
10 New Lebanon    0.360 D
11 Doane Stuart    0.263 D
12 Hawthorne Valley    0.252 D
13 Bolton    0.238 D
14 St. Johnsville    0.139 D
15 Sharon Springs    0.120 D
16 Loudonville Christian    0.112 D
17 Salem  (0.006) D

Final Boys Forecast Rankings

Since the brackets are already out and it takes more time to get them into that order I thought I would just list everyone top to bottom along with their scores.  I have to get all the Girls games in from yesterday and run the model and once I post that, I'll put some thoughts together on how the Committee did and some things I'll be watching for once the games begin.  Just as a reminder, a ranking of 1.000 would be Championship level, 0.889 Finals level, 0.778 Semi-Finals, 0.667 Contender (by my own judgement), 0.556 Quarter-Final level. 

1  Catholic Central     0.749  AA 
2  Guilderland     0.733  AA 
3  Columbia     0.569  AA 
4  Green Tech     0.559  AA 
5  Shenendehowa     0.546  AA 
6  Ballston Spa     0.518  AA 
7  Shaker     0.472  AA 
8  CBA     0.465  AA 
9  Schenectady     0.413  AA 
10  Saratoga Springs     0.374  AA 
11  Bethlehem     0.255  AA 
12  Bishop Maginn     0.247  AA 
13  Albany     0.234  AA 
14  Niskayuna     0.208  AA 
15  Colonie     0.165  AA 
16  LaSalle     0.087  AA 

1  Scotia-Glenville     0.909  A 
2  Troy     0.807  A 
3  Gloversville     0.666  A 
4  Averill Park     0.486  A 
5  Amsterdam     0.398  A 
6  Queensbury     0.292  A 
7  Glens Falls     0.267  A 
8  Hudson Falls     0.203  A 
9  Mohonasen     0.200  A 
10  Lansingburgh     0.180  A 
11  Burnt Hills     0.135  A 
12  Cobleskill   (0.020)  A 
13  South Glens Falls   (0.028)  A 
14  Bishop Gibbons   (0.035)  A 

1  Hoosick Falls     0.895  B 
2  Voorheesville     0.816  B 
3  Mekeel Academy     0.785  B 
4  Cohoes     0.775  B 
5  Mechanicville     0.661  B 
6  Broadalbin-Perth     0.655  B 
7  Catskill     0.624  B 
8  Taconic Hills     0.609  B 
9  Watervliet     0.569  B 
10  Schalmont     0.483  B 
11  Corinth     0.437  B 
12  Schuylerville     0.423  B 
13  Johnstown     0.404  B 
14  Stillwater     0.397  B 
15  Coxsackie-Athens     0.380  B 
16  Hudson     0.369  B 
17  Fonda-Fultonville     0.343  B 
18  Ravena     0.316  B 
19  Cairo-Durham     0.259  B 
20  Ichabod Crane     0.181  B 
21  Tamarac     0.088  B 
22  Granville     0.067  B 
23  Greenville     0.027  B 
24  Chatham     0.003  B 

1  Lake George     0.814  C 
2  Hoosic Valley     0.757  C 
3  Saratoga Catholic     0.720  C 
4  Waterford     0.619  C 
5  Greenwich     0.603  C 
6  Duanesburg     0.598  C 
7  Berlin     0.559  C 
8  Rensselaer     0.557  C 
9  Fort Plain     0.508  C 
10  Canajoharie     0.491  C 
11  Berne-Knox     0.488  C 
12  Maple Hill     0.487  C 
13  Hadley-Luzerne     0.393  C 
14  Schoharie     0.361  C 
15  Middleburgh     0.344  C 
16  Mayfield     0.249  C 
17  Whitehall     0.074  C 
18  Cambridge     0.006  C 
19  Galway   (0.113)  C 

1  Argyle     0.845  D 
2  Germantown     0.678  D 
3  Hartford     0.608  D 
4  Fort Ann     0.594  D 
5  North Warren     0.535  D 
6  Heatly     0.373  D 
7  St. Johnsville     0.352  D 
8  Loudonville Christian     0.348  D 
9  Salem     0.302  D 
10  Northville     0.285  D 
11  Fort Edward     0.202  D 
12  Doane Stuart     0.080  D 
13  Warrensburg     0.001  D 
14  Sharon Springs   (0.035)  D 
15  New Lebanon   (0.052)  D 
16  Bolton   (0.053)  D 
17  Hawthorne Valley   (0.081)  D 

Sunday, February 9, 2014

Girls Class C HV v. Field

So I'm attempting to do the girls class C  the same way I did the boys B's last night.  I had to include five teams this time as I thought it was necessary and it turns out to be cleaner as there are five different classes that are in play.  I chose the best of each league just to be fair to all and get a good comparison between the leagues involved.  They are Hoosic Valley from the Wasaren, Maple Hill from the Patroon, Lake George from the Adirondack, Waterford from the CHVL and Fort Plain from the WAC.  There could be some argument to using Fort Plain.  My reasoning is this, though tied with Canjo for the best record, they beat them twice head to head.  They also beat Berne-Knox by 7.  Berne-Knox split with Middleburgh, who has the best record on the other side of the WAC. 

The strongest argument would be Middleburgh.  They and Fort Plain both split with Mayfield by roughly the same margin, however Middleburgh beat Canjo by 24 which is 15 better than Fort Plain could do with two tries.  I chose Fort Plain, mostly because of a lovely email I received regarding them and my methods.

Anyway, I'm not done yet, because I'm using five teams instead of four and because the C schools don't have nearly as many common opponent opportunities since they are located at greater distances apart from each other.  Either way, I finished HV's analysis vs the other four teams I mentioned, and thought I'd put it out there for your consumption.

Of the four teams, Maple Hill was the closest having a head to head and a few other common opponents averaged together the margin went down to 7.0.  Lake George was second with 27.13, Fort Plain third with 27.14 and Waterford fourth at 33.13. 

Just to round it out, I also did HV v Greenwich, who would move ahead of Maple Hill slightly at 5.2.  I'll keep working on the rest of the analysis when I have more time as it's now past midnight, but if you just used the HV analysis the order would look like this.

1.  Hoosic Valley
2.  Greenwich
3.  Maple Hill
4a.  Middleburgh
4b.  Lake George
4c.  Fort Plain
7.  Waterford

Saturday, February 8, 2014

Boys Class B Wasaren v. Colonial

I've seen a lot of discussion of how much better the Colonial is over the Wasaren and how Hoosick Falls doesn't deserve the #1 seed and shouldn't be the favorite.  My forecast has shown Hoosick Falls to be the most likely to win Sectionals and thus thinks they should be the #1 seed.

My personal opinion hadn't really be formed yet.  I'm fully aware of two things, the Colonial wins Sectionals a lot, and Hoosick Falls doesn't.  But, history is just that and though I use it in my formula to predict the future, I do so in an unbiased fashion.  I do not take into account how specific teams or Leagues have done in the past, rather how teams that are alike have done in the past, using certain criteria and variables.

All of this said, neither perspective really gives any clear definite answer as to who deserves the #1 seed this year, so I thought what I would do is a similar exercise that I did with the AA boys.  I compared common opponents for each of the top 3 Colonial teams, Voorheesville, Cohoes and Mechanicville as well as Hoosick Falls.  I know I left out Broadalbin-Perth and Mekeel Academy but I don't think anyone is arguing either of those should be the #1 seed nor does it help settle the argument of Wasaren v. Colonial if I included them (not to mention it would take forever, and time is not my friend right now). 

In a head to head comparison of common opponents, Hoosick Falls is 1.5 points better than Voorheesville, just over 5 points better than Cohoes and just over 11 points better than Mechanicville.  Voorheesville is 2.5 points better than Cohoes and 3.7 points better than Mechanicville and Cohoes is 3.8 points better than Mechanicville. When you average all of those head to head comps together, Hoosick Falls has the best score and when set to zero, they are an average +4.3 points better than Voorheesville, +7.1 points better than Cohoes and +12.1 better than Mechanicville. 

What this tells me is simply that Hoosick Falls' 14-0 in the Wasaren League and 16-0 in Section 2 is probably worth 3 to 4 points more than Voorheesville's 12-1 Colonial Council record and 15-1 Section 2 record, and yes, Hoosick Falls should be the #1 seed.  Whether they win Sectionals or not is up to them.

Tuesday, February 4, 2014

Counting the Days

I haven't actually looked, but I think we're about a week away from the end of the regular season.  Usually at this late of a date, there aren't too many games that change our perceptions too much, nor too many that change the Forecasts a great deal.  Though I haven't entered all the games tonight into the database yet, I think there are at least two that have the chance to have done just that.

The first, and probably the more surprising was the Voorheesville girls beating Watervliet by 2.  Voorheesville certainly isn't a bad team.  They only have one loss this year that I would call a blow out, but they did lose to Vliet by 11 earlier in the year and Watervliet, aside from their loss to Holy Names, has been pretty dominant the whole season.  I actually thought they would beat Holy Names.  Now, in each of these losses, one of their five leading scorers (outside Teagan Clough they have four other scorers with nearly identical points) didn't score a point.  I don't know the cause of that, whether it was good defense, poor individual performance or injury but this loss has to raise some concerns if you're a fan of Watervliet.

It by no means says they can't win Sectionals, but at this point, I think you have to give Tamarac the nod for the #1 seed.

On the boys side there was an upset not nearly as shocking, given the recent strong performances of the team that won and the overall lack of dominance of the team that lost.  I'm referring to Rensselaer's win over Taconic Hills.  I've been watching Rensselaer all season as a darkhorse in the class C bracket and mentioned last week how Taconic Hills' MOV is less than stellar despite a pretty good record.  What this means for the future is that Mechanicville should move into the fifth spot, where they belong, and the Patroon has little chance for a Sectional title in the B bracket.  For Rensselaer, it just confirms what I've suspected all along, they tend to finish strong and are a threat for perhaps an upset or two, depending on seeding, come Sectionals.

On a different track, I wanted to point out there was discussion in the comments section on the Girls' Forecast #3 that I encourage you to read.  I make every effort to be as transparent as possible with regards to the models I use for this blog and whatever shortcomings they may have.  For the boys there are individual cases, like Shen, where they are always going to be undervalued due to their enrollment comparative to those teams they play (and how that compares to the rest of the section).  That should sort itself out once I'm able to run a model for each class (hoping next season for that, if I can get them set up in time). 

The girls forecast contains a lot less data, but has what may be a fatal flaw that I've detailed in those comments.  I don't want to waste space typing it again, but it's something I need to re-evaluate in the offseason and see if there aren't some other options I can use to make the model more useful.  I'll post the final seedings prior to the real brackets regardless, given I have the time but definitely before the first games, for those of you who are still interested.  If I can get some time this week, I want to do something a little different for the girls bracket so cross your fingers I can get a few hours to get it done.