Saturday, February 1, 2014

Boys Sectional Forecast #5 thru 1/31/14

Not a ton of games this week, but some interesting things happened.  CCHS finally lost, Albany Academy beat Guilderland and Schuylerville petitioned to join the Foothills next year and leave the Wasaren.  I have some further thoughts on that last one I'll be writing about in a couple days.  In the meantime, let's see how the forecast is doing.

Class AA
(1) Guilderland      13-2  no change
(16) La Salle     4-11  no change
(8) CBA     10-4 no change
(9) Schenectady     10-6  down 2
(5) Shaker     11-4  up 2
(12) Albany     6-8  up 1
(4) Green Tech     3-1  up 1
(13) Bishop Maginn   4-11 up 1
(3) Columbia     9-5  no change
(14) Niskayuna     4-11 down 3
(6) Shenendehowa     12-2 up down 2
(11) Bethlehem    5-8  up 1
(7) Ballston Spa     9-6  down 1
(10) Saratoga Springs     9-6  no change
(2) Catholic Central     12-1  no change
(15) Colonie     4-11  no change

Despite Guilerland and CCHS both losing a game this week, they both maintained their spots in the bracket.  It's not entirely surprising since both are the only two in the bracket that have rankings above 0.667.  I remain disappointed that Green Tech doesn't play more in-section games, but since there is nothing I can do about it I have to assume the model knows what it's doing. 

Green Tech does have more losses this year than they did all of last season and their MOV isn't nearly as impressive.  Given that CBA is having a down year and Troy lost their two biggest players from last year's team, it was reasonable to believe GT would jump up to the top spot since they were in the final last year.  But, maybe that hasn't happened and Guilderland and CCHS really are more likely to win the whole thing.  There isn't much I can do about the Shen problem, other than point it out, regardless this year's bracket looks to be a very competitive one.  There appear to be several teams who could knock off any of the top 4 (Guilerland, Shen, CCHS and GT) so maybe we get a surprise or even two in the final.

Class A
(1) Scotia-Glenville     14-0  no change
(16) Bye
(8) Glens Falls     4-11  no change
(9) Lansingburgh     4-10  up 1
(5) Amsterdam     5-10  no change
(12) South Glens Falls     2-13  no change
(4) Averill Park     8-7  no change
(13) Bishop Gibbons     0-14  no change
(3) Gloversville     11-3 no change
(14) Cobleskill     0-13  no change
(6) Queensbury     6-8  no change
(11) Burnt Hills     1-13  no change
(7) Hudson Falls    5-10  no change
(10) Mohonasen     2-13  down 1
(2) Troy     11-2  no change
(15) Bye

Troy had a nice bounce back week beating CCHS last night.  It remains to be seen if they are going to be able to compete with Scotia in this bracket but as things go, they seem to be the only team that has a legitimate shot.  Gloversville has a nice rating and will more than likely be in the semifinal, but they've already proven they can't keep up with Scotia.  Beyond that, Averill Park and Amsterdam would be a nice story making the semis, but I don't see how they can compete for the title.

Class B
(1) Hoosick Falls     14-0  no change
(16) Ravena     7-7  down 1
(8) Broadalbin-Perth     9-5  down 1
(9) Watervliet     9-4  down 1
(5) Taconic Hills     12-3 up 1
(12) Schuylerville     10-6  up 2
(4) Cohoes     13-2 no change
(13) Schalmont    7-6  down 2
(3) Mekeel Academy     9-1 no change
(14) Stillwater     8-8  down 1
(6) Mechanicville    11-4  down 1
(11) Coxsackie-Athens     9-5  down 2
(7) Catskill    10-3  up 3
(10) Johnstown     9-6 up 2
(2) Voorheesville     13-1  no change
(15) Corinth     7-7  up 1

Not rated: Hudson, Fonda-Fultonville, Cairo-Durham, Ichabod Crane, Tamarac, Granville, Chatham, Greenville

Regardless of order I believe the model has the top 4 contenders correct, though I would have Mechanicville fifth over Taconic Hills.  Speaking of Taconic Hills, despite racking up an impressive 12-3 record, their average MOV is 3.7.  Not overly inspiring.  The Colonial Council is just really good this year.  Even though Voorheesville, Cohoes and Mechanicville have only lost a combined 7 games, they have each played multiple games within a handful of points, and several were to teams you wouldn't consider top of the class.

I will point out, that can show also show that the opposite is true.  Much like Taconic Hills winning several games by less than 5 points, it may just show each of the three, Voorheesville, Cohoes and Mechanicville have flaws (ones they were able to overcome).  We don't know what the brackets are going to look like yet, but there is a scenario where only one of these teams makes the semis and yet another where all three do (and perhaps a fourth).  I do believe it's an up year for the Colonial, but there are three other good teams (Hoosick Falls, Mekeel Academy and the sleeper Broadalbin-Perth) that could prove that theory wrong. 

Class C
(1) Lake George     13-1  no change
(16) Mayfield     6-8  down 1
(8) Fort Plain     9-4  no change
(9) Maple Hill     9-6  up 1
(5) Waterford     12-4  up 2
(12) Canajoharie     9-6  down 1
(4) Duanesburg     13-3  no change
(13) Hadley-Luzerne     8-6  no change
(3) Saratoga Catholic    14-2  no change
(14) Schoharie     5-8  no change
(6) Greenwich     10-5 no change
(11) Berne-Knox     8-6  up 1
(7) Berlin     9-4  down 2
(10) Rensselaer     9-6  down 1
(2) Hoosic Valley     14-1  no change
(15) Middleburgh     5-7  up 1

Not rated:  Whitehall, Cambridge, Galway

I'm good with the top 3 in that order.  I would put Greenwich fourth.  Early in the year I said I thought Rensselaer could be a dark-horse and though it didn't look very good in the early going, they have rebounded well similar to last year.  They are not a team I would want to play as a upper seed.  The CHVL has actually surprised me a bit this year performing better against non-league opponents than I'm used to.  It doesn't mean I think Waterford or Berlin (who is playing Greenwich on Wednesday) have a legit shot but you may be surprised by their performance in a couple weeks.  I still see this as a Lake George, Hoosic Valley rematch for the title.

Class D
(1) Argyle     12-2 no change
(16) Bolton     0-14  down 2
(8) St. Johnsville    5-8  no change
(9) Northville     5-10  no change
(5) North Warren     9-5  no change
(12) Doane Stuart     3-12  no change
(4) Fort Ann     9-4  no change
(13) Warrensburg     2-11  no change
(3) Hartford     9-4  no change
(14) Sharon Springs     0-11  up 1
(6) Loudonville Christian      8-6  up 1
(11) Salem     5-9  down 1
(7) Heatly     7-9  down 1
(10) Fort Edward     4-9  up 1
(2) Germantown     11-2  no change
(15) New Lebanon     0-9  up 1

Not rated:  Hawthorne Valley

Argyle has widened the gap on Germantown, but taking a loss to a Colonial B by 10 points will probably help more than hurt Germantown's chances in Sectionals.  We'll see just how much.

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