Friday, February 21, 2014

1st Round Update and 2nd Round Picks

For the first round, the model didn't have a great go at it.  For the boys, the Committee went 27-7 and the model went 25-9.  On the girls side a similar outcome with the committee going 27-5 and the model going 25-7.  So I'm two games behind on both.  Let's see if there are any chances for redemption in round 2.

Boys Class AA
Shen over Saratoga
Green Tech over Shaker
Guilderland over CBA
Columbia over Niskayuna

No room for making up ground on these, as the model and the Committee agree on all four.  This may be the last chance for the non-Suburban schools to prove themselves as there are only two of them left.  Shaker did not finish the season on a high note, neither did Green Tech.  They have both now played Bethlehem with Shaker winning by 17 and GT winning by 20.  On a neutral floor this seems reasonably even and will probably come down to how they match up against each other.  I still think GT has every chance to win the whole thing so I'll take them.  

Guilderland and CBA also have one common opponent, Ballston Spa.  Guilderland won by 14, CBA by 10.  Almost the same spread as the GT-Shaker comp.  I really believe that Guilderland is a better team than CBA and should win but it's just so hard to count out the experience on CBA's coaching staff.  Ultimately I believe it comes down to players however and I will take Guilderland.  

The other two games are both rematches of Suburban contests earlier this year and since Columbia and Shen prevailed then, there's no reason to think they shouldn't now.

Class A
Scotia over Lansingburgh
Averill Park over Amsterdam
Gloversville over Queensbury
Troy over Mohonasen

No chances for a make up here either.  Scotia, Troy and Gloversville should all move on with relative ease.  The Averill Park v Amsterdam game should be a good one.  Amsterdam has had some very good games this year and is definitely capable of winning.  They have no common opponents, however, Mekeel Academy played both Amsterdam (winning by 11) and Gloversville (winning by 4).  That puts Gloversville +7 on Amsterdam.  G'ville played AP twice to an average of +8.  That's the very definition of a toss-up.  I'll take Amsterdam just because they have a greater upside (even if they don't often show it).

Class B
Voorheesville over Catskill
Mekeel Academy over Mechanicville
Broadalbin-Perth over Hudson
Hoosick Falls over Schalmont

Nothing going on here either, in terms of making up ground.  This has the potential to be a very interesting group of games however.  V'ville and HF should move on, and by how much, if they do, will tell a lot as to who has the better chance at winning the whole thing.  BP is greatly improved since the beginning of the year when they lost to Cohoes and they did so by a smaller margin than Hudson.  Hudson has obviously improved as well since they just beat Cohoes after losing to them earlier in the year as well.  I like BP in this one but, as with all the games in the B bracket from here out, nothing would shock me.  Mekeel and Mechanicville has the potential to be a great game.  Mekeel is very talented having beaten the #3 class A school and Mechanicville has played everyone close even if they haven't pulled out the victory.  I think the hard nosed style of the Colonial wins out and M'ville advances to face Voorheesville in a Colonial showdown in the semis.

Class C
Hoosic Valley over Canajoharie
Waterford over Greenwich
Saratoga Catholic over Rensselaer
Lake George over Maple Hill

The only chance here is the one I'm least confident in Waterford over Greenwich.  The model has them very close, but they do have a better score.  I would find that to be a surprising outcome if Waterford were to win.  HV gets a rematch with their semifinal opponent from last year and the results should be the same with an easy win for HV.  This is the round in which they had a close call against Rensselaer last year, so I wouldn't discount it being closer than you might thing, but there's no reason to believe HV shouldn't move on.

Spa Catholic against Rensselaer should be the best game of the round.  SC is a bit of an unknown as they don't get out of the WAC too much.  Even their two games against Wasaren teams were contradictory so I really don't know what to expect from them.  The Patroon plays a different style than the northern conferences and sometimes it can take an opponent by surprise.  I'll take Rensselaer with the upset.

The only question with Lake George is will Andrew Zibro play and if he doesn't how much of an effect will it have on them.  Wincowski is capable of carrying a team offensively as he showed last year in Sectionals and States, but defensively it could be a question mark.  I won't discount Mr. Wincowski at this stage of the game and LG will move on.

I have to run but I got through the C's done.  I'll update the D's a bit later.

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