Wednesday, February 26, 2014

Revisiting CCHS v Nisky and Other Stuff

I'm sure I wasn't alone in my initial shock at seeing that Niskayuna beat Catholic Central.  I bring it up because I 'm doing a little back track work on the Common Opponent Analysis like I did last year (as everything seems to be this year a little late) and was shocked again when it came out that CCHS was only an average 5 points better than Nisky.  I was aware that CCHS's MOV wasn't outstanding but I didn't suspect they would be that close to a four win team from the Suburban.

It actually clears things up a bit however as the average variance on the COA last year was +/- 12.5 meaning essentially the range for the game was from a 17 point CCHS win to a 7 point loss.  While this method isn't perfect it does provide some much needed perspective for some folks.

As far as tonight's games I'm more convinced than ever that Twitter is the greatest invention ever. I basically watched play by play of the historic Guilderland v Columbia game.  I wasn't really rooting for either so it made it that much more fun.  After Nails got hurt I did kind of hope Guilderland would pull it out just so the final wouldn't be a letdown after such a great game. At the same time Spa Catholic made a huge run to knock out the Wincowski led defending State Champs of Lake George.  Here again while I wasn't rooting for either but knowing LG was down their second best player I'd rather not have to ask "what if" in a Title game depending on its outcome.

Finally, the model is still two games back after the second round and desperately needs Green Tech to win for any chance to make up ground. As of right now they are ahead 40-35 so I can momentarily breathe.

I'll be heading up on Saturday for the C final and if they are fast enough the B as well.  I'll try to tweet if service is good. I'm sure everyone will be updating the scores do I'll do my best to stick to commentary.  Also, on a side note, I typed this on my phone so I apologize for any typos.  My computer is not well.

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