Feeling a bit more rested now, finally. Below is the first round breakdown for C and D.
Hoosic Valley over Waterford
Berlin over Canajoharie
Waterford over Schoharie
Greenwich over Fort Plain
Saratoga Catholic over Hadley-Luzerne
Rensselaer over Berne-Knox
Duanesburg over Maple Hill
Lake George over Middleburgh
The top four seeds shouldn't have any trouble in class C, beyond them however, many things are possible. The only upset the model picked is Berlin over Canajoharie. I actually disagree with that one, I see Canajoharie facing off with Hoosic Valley in a rematch of the last year's semifinal game. Canajoharie handled Duanesburg pretty well in their only meeting and Duanesburg, though 2-0 vs Waterford, managed 3 and 2 point victories. Waterford split with Berlin losing by 24 early in the year, but rebounding to beat them by 10 later in the season. The head to head comps between Waterford and Berlin suggest that the second score, with Waterford winning by 10, is the more likely of the two to be accurate. If that's the case, even with an inflated win by Canjo over Duanesburg, Canjo looks better.
The other CHVL - WAC matchup could also be up for grabs between Schoharie and Waterford. Duanesburg played both teams twice. They were +5 vs Waterford and -7 vs. Schoharie. I see this as a pick em game, but I'll give the edge to the home team and say Waterford hangs on. In another WAC pick em game, Duanesburg is the higher seed against Maple Hill, but I feel Maple Hill got a bit of a raw deal on their seed. They split with Rensselaer, losing only by six in their final meeting and yet they are 4 spots lower in the seeding. MH also beat Berne-Knox by 18 who split with Duanesburg and had a -5 point margin for the two games. The reason I call it a pick em is that Berne-Knox also played and lost to Taconic Hills, but by only 3. MH lost to TH twice by a combined 11. I don't know which score is more accurate of telling what's going to happen when MH meets Duanesburg, but it gives pause, and along with MH playing in Duanesburg makes me think it could easily go either way. That said, I'll take Maple Hill for the upset.
The final first round game is between, two other WAC - Patroon teams with Rensselaer facing Berne-Knox. Given how much of a roll Rensselaer is on, and being at home, and the previous scores already discussed I'll take Rensselaer. The reason I think it might be closer than scores might indicate is the time off for Rensselaer could lead to some cooling off. I don't think that will happen, but you never know what can happen when you get the chance to sit around not playing anybody.
Loudonville Christian over Northville
St. Johnsville over Fort Edward
Heatly over Salem
Heatly v Salem will probably be a good game as neither team was able to separate themselves from being average. With the exception of Argyle and Lake George, the competition in the Adirondack and CHVL isn't too different and both racked up records just under 0.500. They don't have any common opponents however, Loudonville Christian beat Bolton by 14 and Salem beat them by 15. LC and Heatly played twice and averaged a 1 point margin. Heatly played a much tougher non-league schedule but had zero wins to show for it. Honestly, I have no idea how this is going to turn out. I'll go with the home team.
Loudonville Christian played Galway and won by 20, while Northville played and beat Galway three times averaging just under a 19 point margin. This too could be a toss-up, but I'll again take the home team due to the large distance Northville needs to travel.
Finally, St. Johnsville and Fort Edward could also be a tight game. North Warren beat Northville and Fort Edward by 13 and 14 respectively. Northville lost to SJ twice by an average of 6 points. Of the three opening round games in class D, this has the largest certainty and even this I wouldn't write in stone. Again, in class D these schools are so far apart, though SJ and FE are less so than the other two, I find it to be just as important to be the home team than to actually be better. Riding on a bus for an hour or two just isn't a good way to prepare to play basketball. That said, I'll take St. Johnsville, but I bet at least one of those home teams loses.
Quick update on the B first round. The forecast went 3-1, the Committee went 4-0.