Monday, December 31, 2012

Private School Enrollment and the Decline of Bishop Maginn

Every school has fluctuation in enrollments as does the Section as a whole, but sometimes you can see a trend develop and for someone who relies on enrollments for my models, that it very worth noting.  Since the 2006-2007 season total Section enrollment is down 9.6% or 4,663 students.  That number has declined every year in that span.  While most schools have seen a slight decline, not all schools have and some have had dramatic drops in enrollment in that time.

Of the 96 schools that have played in Section 2 over the past 5 seasons, only 14 (14.51%) have an increase enrollment over that first season.  Of those, only 6 (6.25%) are Public schools, and only Schuylerville (1.05%) has increased their enrollment by greater than 3%.  By my count there are currently 15 Private schools and 8 (53.33%) of them have increased their enrollment over that time.  Part of this is due to the financial collapse in 2008.  When people don't have jobs, or fear they might lose theirs they are less likely to spend money, even on important things like education.  Between the 2008-2009 and 2009-2010 seasons 10 of the 13 Private schools operational at the time (not including Green Tech and Albany Leadership) saw a decrease in enrollment. 

Since then, most of the schools have rebounded with 6 bringing enrollment back above pre 2008 levels.  Three more are within 80% of their 2008 level and three more are over 70%.  If you're counting that's 12 of the 13 that are within 70% of where they were prior to the financial collapse.  That one remaining is Bishop Maginn which is currently at 32.9% of it's 2008 level.  Right now they have a lower enrollment than Doane Stuart, Loudonville Christian, Saratoga Catholic, Mekeel Academy and Bishop Gibbons, all schools that are in lower classes and two of them are in D.  The only school they have more students than is Hawthorne Valley. 

I believe the main reason for this decline is not due to the financial collapse, though that did have some influence, but rather the opening of Green Tech and Albany Leadership.  There are more financial benefits to families for sending their children to Charter schools than to Parochial schools.  This could explain why Bishop Maginn is having a down year and why Green Tech is surging.  Albany City schools have also felt the effect of the new Charter Schools.  The enrollment at these schools more than makes up for the 32% loss at Albany and the 204% loss at Bishop Maginn. 

At this point it's too early to say Bishop Maginn belongs anywhere but AA, but if they don't find a way to stop the slide in talent they won't be for long and if they don't find a way to stop the slide in enrollment their doors won't be open for long either.

Sunday, December 30, 2012

Boy's Basketball Sectional Forecast #1

Before I get into this, I would like to make one note about the one difference between the Girl's and Boy's forecast.  I have made it before, but it is an important one.  That is I only have one season of information for the Girl's forecast so the output could be a little more volatile.  I have three seasons for the Boy's so I think you'll see it a little more stable.  Without further adieu, please find the 1st Boy's Sectional Forecast.

Class AA

(1) Green Tech  2-0
(16) Saratoga Springs  3-4
(8) Schenectady  4-3
(9) Colonie  4-2
(5) Shaker  6-0
(12) Ballston Spa  3-4
(4) Troy  5-1
(13) Shenendehowa  3-1
(3) Bethlehem  6-0
(14) Bishop Maginn  3-5
(6) CBA  6-2
(11) Catholic Central  3-3
(7) Columbia  5-1
(10) Guilderland  3-3
(2) Albany Academy  1-0
(15) LaSalle  4-4

Unranked:  Albany, Niskayuna

For the most part, this is what I laid out the other day.  I neglected to put Albany Academy in the discussion because they only have 1 in-section game.  Their position along with Green Tech has the potential to fluctuate more than the others because they play so few in-section games.  Other than Shen, this looks about what I would have thought.  One notable thing about this is the first 4 teams are above the final four number and Shaker at 5 is only a few points back.  Remarkably, CBA isn't really that close.

Class A

(1) Scotia-Glenville  7-0
(16) Bye
(8) Queensbury  3-3
(9) Burnt Hills  1-4
(5) Averill Park  2-4
(12) Bye
(4) South Glens Falls  4-3
(13) Bye
(3) Gloversville  3-3
(14) Bye
(6) Mohonasen  2-5
(11) Bishop Gibbons  0-8
(7) Lansingburgh  3-3
(10) Amsterdam  2-5
(2) Glens Falls  4-2
(15) Bye

I'm not sure I could do any better here, it seems like everyone has beaten everyone else and only by a handful of points.  Lansingburgh beat Mohonasen by 5, Queensbury beat Gloversville by 3, Glens Falls beat Queensbury by 2, Averill Park beat Gloversville by 6, South Glens Falls beat Glens Falls by 3.  I think you get the idea, it's anybody's bracket to get to lose to Scotia in the final.  Only two teams are above the second round threshold.  Scotia who is only a few points away from the final game and Glens Falls who is just barely over winning their first game.  Luckily for the top 5, they get bye's so they don't have to win a game to advance.

Class B

(1) Watervliet  3-0
(16) Greenville  2-5
(8) Taconic Hills  5-3
(9) Broadalbin-Perth  3-4
(5) Ichabod Crane  5-2
(12) Corinth  4-3
(4) Schuylerville  5-1
(13) Tamarac  4-3
(3) Cairo-Durham  5-1
(14) Mekeel Academy  2-2
(6) Cohoes  4-3
(11) Hudson  4-3
(7) Ravena  4-2
(10) Schalmont  5-3
(2) Catskill  9-0
(15) Fonda-Fultonville  3-4

Unranked:  Johnstown, Hudson Falls, Chatham, Granville, Coxsackie-Athens, Cobleskill

The top 4 look right to me, but maybe not in the same order.  I would assume the committee would give Schuylerville the 3rd spot in favor of the 2nd place team in the Patroon, but I think this bracket is going to come down to a rematch of the 2010-2011 BB-B game between Watervliet and Catskill as they are the only two with final four values.  One team that I would watch in the coming weeks is Mekeel Academy.  They usually dominate their league schedule and I only have 4 games logged for them at this point.  They did lose to Mechanicville who is only middle to bottom of the Colonial, so they may not make a run in sectionals, but I don't expect them to be the 14 seed either.  I also think you'll see Cohoes pass Ichabod Crane for the 5th spot and ride up on Schuylerville and Cairo-Durham for their spots as well. 

Class C

(1) Lake George  6-0
(16) Waterford  4-5
(8) Hoosick Falls  3-2
(9) Voorheesville  3-3
(5) Greenwich  6-2
(12) Rensselaer  4-4
(4) Canajoharie  7-2
(13) Mayfield  4-4
(3) Berne-Knox  4-1
(14) Mechanicville  3-4
(6) Schoharie  5-1
(11) Stillwater  3-3
(7) Fort Plain  5-2
(10) Maple Hill  5-5
(2) Hoosic Valley  7-1
(15) Saratoga Catholic  3-5

Unranked:  Berlin, Duanesburg, Whitehall, Cambridge, Middleburgh, Hadley-Luzerne, Galway

I'm going to go out on a limb here even though I really don't need to.  I think Hoosic Valley is going to end up 1 and Lake George 2 and for this reason, Hoosic Valley will probably end with 2 or 3 losses and Lake George will probably end with 1 or 2 because I think Argyle is better than they are, as well I think Schuylerville is better than Hoosic Valley.  Hoosic Valley however, plays a more difficult schedule on the whole than does Lake George.  They are also really close in the ranking and a loss for Lake George could make all the difference.  As far as the rest of the bracket goes, I think Greenwich is a couple spots too high and Hoosick Falls, Voorheesville and Fort Plain are a couple too low, but they have to go somewhere and at best they would just shuffle around.

Class D

(1) Argyle  7-0
(16) Bolton  0-7
(8) Heatly  3-4
(9) St. Johnsville  2-4
(5) Germantown  4-3
(12) Warrensburg  3-4
(4) Fort Ann  4-2
(13) Fort Edward  0-5
(3) North Warren  6-1
(14) Hawthorne Valley  1-4
(6) Northville  4-4
(11) Salem  3-4
(7) Hartford  3-3
(10) Doane Stuart  3-3
(2) Loudonville Christian  7-0
(15) Sharon Springs  0-3

Unranked: New Lebanon

This is the one and only bracket I am in complete agreement with.  Both Argyle and Loudonville Christian have final four values and Argyle is only slightly below the championship game.  Without disrespecting Loudonville Christian and their undefeated record, it seems to me Argyle is the favorite here and by a lot.  They beat the number 3 North Warren by 29.  LC has some nice wins, but nothing that amounts to the whipping Argyle has put on everyone they have faced.  If I had to pick a dark horse, and I'm not sure you can call a 3 seed a dark horse, it would be North Warren.  They have put up some big scores and it feels like they are playing better now than at the beginning of the season.  I wouldn't count out Germantown at 5 from making an unexpected run either but I don't think they can beat Argyle.

Ok, so the first forecast is in the books.  I'm going to try and do these once a week for the rest of the season.  I might be off a day or two, but I'm shooting for Saturday-Sunday, or Sunday-Monday.  I'm going to try to update the leading scorer pages this week as well now that I have everything running smoothly for the forecast.  Enjoy your New Year and be safe on the roads.  I'll be on my couch.

Girl's Basketball Sectional Forecast #1

Ladies and gentlemen, the first girls forecast is listed below followed by comments.  The boys will follow either tonight or tomorrow.  We are about a third of the way through the season with 287 games logged and a lot will change between now and when the Sectional Seedings come out.  So don't yell I'll do my best to explain.

I do want to preface this by pointing out that the model gives each team a percentage value.  This is the order of those values.  It's based on what round in the tournament they should get to, so a team that gets a .900 in the model would be projected to make the final, regardless of seeding position.  

Class AA

(1) Bethlehem  6-0
(16) Bye
(8) Catholic Central  4-4
(9) Columbia  4-3
(5) Bishop Maginn  6-3
(12) Niskayuna  1-4
(4) Colonie  5-2
(13) Schenectady  0-6
(3) Shaker  5-0
(14) Bye
(6) Guilderland  3-2
(11) Ballston Spa  1-6
(7) Shenendehowa  3-1
(10) Saratoga Springs  3-3
(2) Albany  6-0
(15) Bye

First things first, the model gives the Suburban the top spot even though both the top teams in the Big 10 and Suburban have the same record.  That seems logical to me.  Bethlehem is performing greater than the historical averages would suggest against their schedule than Albany is against theirs.  Bethlehem also has a greater MOV.  The same two points can be made for Albany over Shaker.  At least the model is consistent.  Shen might be the only one that is slightly out of line if you put them in order by winning percentage and that has to do with their really low MOV.  History only has them as a .500 club at their current rate.  Finally, Bethlehem is the only team that is close to the assigned value where the model puts them in the final outright.  Bethlehem and Albany are both over the threshold for the final four and Shaker and Colonie are close.

Class A

(1) Troy  4-1
(16) Bye
(8) Mohonasen  2-5
(9) Amsterdam  2-4
(5) Averill Park  4-3
(12) Bye
(4) Queensbury  5-1
(13) Bye
(3) Glens Falls  4-2
(14) Bye
(6) South Glens Falls  6-2
(11) Lansingburgh  0-6
(7) Scotia-Glenville  4-3
(10) Burnt Hills  1-6
(2) Holy Names  6-0
(15) Bye

This one gets a little more complicated.  Troy (you can put an asterisk next to this one because I haven't heard if the girls are playing in AA as the boys are) the only one here who even crosses the final four mark, though Holy Names, Glens Falls and Queensbury are close.  So why does Troy outscore Holy Names even though they have a loss and two less wins?  The answer has mostly to do with who each team has played.  Troy's opponents not only have larger enrollments, they are also performing better than expected by 2 full games over an 18 game schedule.  Holy Names opponents are performing 2.5 games below average in an 18 game schedule, so Troy's opponents are 4.5 games better than average than Holy Names' and have larger enrollments.  It gets substantially worse from there as I now have to explain how Glens Falls is ahead of Queensbury even though Queensbury has now beaten them twice.  Oh yeah, and South Glens Falls is two spots below Queensbury even though they beat them once.  The answer is a mishmash of unbalanced schedules, MOV's and expected winning percentages all falling just right and would take half my day to explain.  This one will sort itself out as they complete their league schedules and their common opponents come into line.  These are the inherent dangers of running the model so early in the season.

Class B

(1) Watervliet  6-1
(16) Chatham  3-5
(8) Broadalbin-Perth  3-3
(9) Corinth  4-2
(5) Greenville  5-2
(12) Catskill  3-5
(4) Ravena  4-2
(13) Johnstown  2-4
(3) Tamarac  7-1
(14) Hudson  4-4
(6) Emma Willard  5-2
(11) Cobleskill  4-3
(7) Fonda-Fultonville  3-4
(10) Schalmont  5-2
(2) Taconic Hills  6-2
(15) Cohoes  5-3

Unranked:  Granville, Albany Leadership, Bishop Gibbons, Coxsackie-Athens, Schuylerville, Hudson Falls, Ichabod Crane, Cairo-Durham

On the surface I'm ok with this one.  The top three are right regardless of order and the order will straighten itself out.  There are some problems within the Colonial Council teams much like with the Foothills in A, but again, they'll work out themselves in the next few weeks.  The interesting thing about this one is that none of the teams are above the final four grading.  I'm curious if that changes as the year goes on and Watervliet hits their league opponents. 

Class C

(1) Fort Plain  6-0
(16) Schoharie  2-3
(8) Berne-Knox  4-1
(9) Duanesburg  4-2
(5) Middleburgh  4-1
(12) Mekeel Academy 2-4
(4) Lake George  6-1
(13) Whitehall  2-3
(3) Waterford  6-2
(14) Canajoharie  4-4
(6) Hoosic Valley  5-2
(11) Greenwich  4-3
(7) Galway  4-2
(10) Hoosick Falls  4-2
(2) Maple Hill  9-1
(15) Mechanicville  4-3

Unranked:  Albany Academy, Mayfield, Stillwater, Saratoga Catholic, Berlin, Hadley-Luzerne, Rensselaer, Cambridge, Voorheesville

What I believe you'll see in the C bracket is a ton of movement from week to week.  Hoosic Valley has already moved up one from my initial run two days ago and the separation between 2 and 8 is pretty slim.  I think the biggest shock here is how low Berne-Knox is, but any bracket that can put a team of that caliber 8th under any circumstances is going to be a tough bracket to win for any of the teams.  Fort Plain is further ahead of Maple Hill than Maple Hill is of Galway at number 7 and that is almost solely due to their undefeated record.  Any way you slice it this bracket is packed and I think the model is doing a fairly good job so far of sorting it out.  Remember, it's made for a full season of information not a third.

Class D

(1) Fort Edward  5-0
(16) St. Johnsville  0-3
(8) Hartford  1-4
(9) Northville  3-5
(5) Loudonville Christian  3-2
(12) Salem  1-4
(4) Fort Ann  6-0
(13) Doane Stuart  1-5
(3) Heatly  5-2
(14) Sharon Springs  0-2
(6) Germantown  2-3
(11) New Lebanon  2-4
(7) Warrensburg  3-3
(10) North Warren  2-4
(2) Argyle  4-2
(15) Bolton  0-6

Unranked:   Hawthorne Valley

Let me start by saying that Fort Edward is the only team to have a forecast over 1.000 which means the model thinks they should win the whole thing, not just get to the final.  I tend to agree with that sentiment.  The most notable surprise here is that Fort Ann is only 4th even though they are undefeated and beat Argyle by 20.  The reason for this is that other than Argyle not one team they have played is doing anywhere near as well as can be expected from historical trends.  In fact, they are a combined 4-19 excluding their losses to Fort Ann.  This will work itself out when each team plays everyone in the Adirondack League and their opponents expected percentages even out. 

This wasn't bad for a first run especially when most teams haven't even made it once through their in conference schedules.  The accuracy and reliability will improve with each game that's played.  I'll be working on the boys forecast tonight and hopefully I can get it done, if not, tomorrow sometime. 

Friday, December 28, 2012

Boy's Balance of Power Shifts Away from Big 10

There are two huge scores tonight in boys basketball.  Couple them together with the Green Tech win over Schenectady and it looks like there is a trend away from the Big 10 atop the AA bracket.  Let's sum up what just happened in the in-section games.

Schenectady lost to Green Tech by 31
CBA lost to Bethlehem by 11
LaSalle lost to Colonie by 6

Without playing a game, the current top team in the Big 10 took a blow to their strength of schedule by losses from the three teams directly behind them.  Troy has a 2-1 record against those 3 teams and a positive point differential of 13.  Though at this point we can probably take Troy's loss as a bit of a fluke, Green Tech's MOV is 2 and a half times greater than that after just one game.

CBA's 11 point loss is exactly the same MOV Bethlehem had over Colonie, whose 6 point win over LaSalle is just 2 points different than LaSalle's loss to CBA.  That puts CBA on roughly the same line as Colonie, with Bethlehem a few baskets ahead.  Troy falls somewhere in the middle, though closer to CBA than Bethlehem.  And this doesn't even talk about Shaker who in the 3 games they have with common opponents of Bethlehem have a 70 MOV, while Bethlehem has a 72.  We'll find out what the forecast says in a couple more days, but using just these MOV's, I would put the AA in this order:

1.  Green Tech
2.  Shaker
3.  Bethlehem
4.  Troy
5a.  CBA
5b.  Colonie

This is far from a perfect analysis, but three days ago it looked a lot different.

Thursday, December 27, 2012

A New Favorite in Boys Class AA?

A few nights ago I wrote about how Saratoga Catholic blew out Fort Plain by 47 points.  It had the potential to change the entire landscape in the WAC and it was certainly not a score I expected to see.  Tonight there is another score that has the potential to change everything in boys Class AA.  Fresh off Schenectady's 1 point loss to CBA and blowout of Bishop Gibbons, Green Tech returned the favor beating Schenectady by 31 points. 

Green Tech only has 6 Section 2 teams on its schedule and aside from 2 games with Albany Academy (who also plays a light Section schedule with only 5 in section games) this was their biggest Section 2 test.  I know Albany Academy in the past has chosen to play in other post season tournaments instead of Section 2 but I don't know what their plans are this year or if Green Tech has similar aspirations.  I'll try to find out in the next couple days.  What I do know is that Green Tech is now a legitimate threat to unseat the Big 10 in Sectionals and may even be the new favorite.

On another front, I ran the girls Sectional Forecast tonight and though I'm not posting the results until after the Christmas tournaments are complete, there are some surprises.  I'll get into details within the post, but where we stand right now, those surprises do make some sense and reinforce my worry about running it so early in the season.  Even so, it's a good starting point and with each new Forecast you can see how more games influences the brackets.  It's also worth mentioning that unlike other polls, there is no predetermined bias with each new poll.  Each teams standing is independent of their previous standing and only relies on the newest full picture information available.  So don't worry if your favorite team is lower than you think they should be.  Schedules aren't balanced and things will even out.  Each team will end up where they belong in the end.

Saturday, December 22, 2012

Bizarre Score of the Night

It's not Troy's win over CBA.  However important in the Big 10 standings, it's not all that shocking and especially not bizarre.  It must be the Argyle boys 103 point performance versus Warrensburg then?  While you don't see 100 points in a game too often it does happen and Argyle has been averaging 37 MOV's in Adirodack League play.

No, I'm talking about Saratoga Catholic's 47 point win over Fort Plain.  Fort Plain had been undefeated in WAC play and though every game had been close with the exception of their win over Galway, the same could be said for Saratoga Catholic.  SC additionally had a loss to St. Johnsville who was 0-3 excluding that win.  The MOV was 9 points more than SC's win over Galway who is has yet to win a game and is averaging losses of 40 points per game.

I would not have been surprised if you told me it was a 4 or 7 point win.  With Galway the one exception this is probably the most competitive division in terms of how evenly matched each team has been so far.  9 games have been under 10 points, 4 have been 10 or over and the other 4 were games in which Galway played.  I will be interesting to see how each team responds to this game.  Whether Fort Plain bounces back or folds, and if SC can build on this and take it the rest of the way or comes back down to Earth.  Regardless of how the rest of the season plays out, this one was certainly shocking, enough so I waited another day to make sure I was reading it right.

In girls basketball, there was another score that not many people would have seen coming though there was a sign it could be a competitive game.  Ichabod Crane defeated Schalmont in Colonial Council play by 20 points.  As with the FP-SC boys game a close game could have been expected and wouldn't have been a shock.  Entering the game Schalmont had a 5-1 record though several of their games were close and their opponents are now 7-10 against other Colonial Council teams.  IC on the other hand may have been 0-4, but their opponents are now 10-5.  Voorheesville is their only common opponent to date and both games were remarkably close with both IC and Schalmont each losing by 2. 

 I'm still trying to get a grasp on the Suburban.  Bethlehem has been looking pretty solid and already have one win over Colonie.  They should continue to get better as the season progresses as the Giacone sisters are only a Freshman and Sophomore and the rest of the team is pretty young too. Shaker looks to be the team to beat on the other side with Shen taking one on the chin from Colonie.  Shen's wins haven't been as impressive as Shaker's and though it remains to be seen whether or not Shaker can match-up against Colonie and Bethlehem, Shaker is the only real threat coming out of the North Division.

Friday, December 21, 2012

Week Four Leading Scorer Tally

This is the last week I'll be posting this list in a post form.  I'm going to create a page for each boys and girls and update it when I have time.  At some point it will include all the games and maybe then I'll write something out about it in its totality.  For now, it's taking too much time and I don't think it's really giving that much useful information.  For the most part, the important items to take away from the exercise are that 1) with the exception of a dozen or so quality scorers on less than competitive teams the team that scores the most points usually has the higher single scorer as well and thus, wins the game,  2) there are probably a few less of these scorers in girls high school basketball than in boys which is why the girls have less leading scorers on the losing team and, 3) there isn't any predictive value about the results since we don't know until after the game who had the high scorer.  Instead of using the game results, you could look at which team has the scorer with the highest average before the game, and I may look at that in the off-season but I need to refine my data collection efforts to make it sustainable as an in season analysis.

Regardless, I wanted to highlight individual performance a bit on this blog and this is one way to do it so keep checking back on the pages once they are up.  I will be updating them periodically.

Boys Week 4 - 12/11/12 - 12/17/12
Dean Mazzaccelli, Taconic Hills, Neutral floor Waterford, 16 pts (12/8/12), W     91-26-10
Obokoh, Bishop Kearney, vs. Albany Academy , 15 pts, W     92-26-10
Darius Macon and Syeed McPherson, Schenectady and Albany , 18 pts, T     92-26-11
Christian Hodson, Ravena, @ Ichabod Crane, 21 pts, W     93-26-11
Will Turner, Fonda-Fultonville, @ Voorheesville, 37 pts, L     93-27-11
Eli Newsome, Cohoes , vs. Lansingburgh, 29 pts, W     94-27-11
Ralph Erickson, LaSalle, @ CBA, 16 pts, L     94-28-11
Dwayne Freeman, Bishop Gibbons, vs. Amsterdam , 27 pts, L     94-29-11
Anthony Mack, Catholic Central, @ Troy , 25 pts, L     94-30-11
Derek Durkee, Fort Ann , vs. Salem , 30 pts, W     95-30-11
Delsharay Pryce, Argyle, @ Hartford , 24 pts, W     96-30-11
Justin Baird, Warrensburg, vs. Bolton , 20 pts, W     97-30-11
Greg Rosenthal, Lake George, vs. Hadley-Luzerne, 22 pts, W     98-30-11
Nick Sapienza, North Warren , @ Corinth, 29 pts, W     99-30-11
Matt McKenna, Bethlehem , @ Guilderland, 17 pts, W     100-30-11
Jake Samuels, Colonie, vs. Averill Park , 22 pts, W     101-30-11
Conrad Zampier, Columbia , vs. Mohonasen, 43 pts, W     102-30-11
4 tied, Shenendehowa @ Saratoga Springs, 11 pts, T     102-30-12
Jeremy Mendrick, Ballston Spa, vs. Niskayuna , 19 pts, W     103-30-12
Robert Knightes, Burnt Hills, vs. Shaker, 22 pts, L     103-31-12
Dylan Toscano, Mayfield, vs. Galway, 26 pts, W     104-31-12
Jordan Gleason and Tyler McLeod, Watervliet, @ Cobleskill, 18 pts each, W     105-31-12
Jared Beattie, Granville, @ Fair Haven, 25 pts, L     105-32-12
Kalob Russell, Northville, vs. St. Johnsville, 17 pts, W     106-32-12
Luke VanDixhorn, South Glens Falls, @ Hudson Falls, 22 pts, W     107-32-12
Hunter Goodwin, Gloversville, vs. Broadalbin-Perth, 15 pts, W     108-32-12
Joe Cremo, Scotia-Glenville, vs. Johnstown, 21 pts, W     109-32-12
Charles Peltz, Queensbury, @ Glens Falls, 29 pts, L     109-33-12
Dillan Veeder, Canajoharie, vs. Fort Plain, 17 pts, L     109-34-12
Corey Rathjen, Germantown, vs. Hawthorne Valley, 19 pts, W     110-34-12
Matt Yamin, Loudonville Christian, @ Heatly, 27 pts, W     111-34-12
Andrew Hoag, Hoosick Falls, @ Greenwich, 16 pts, W     112-34-12
Shane Lyon, Schuylerville, @ Cambridge, 18 pts, W     113-34-12
Jared Beattie, Granville, @ Hoosic Valley, 23 pts, L     113-35-12
Shawn Pondillo, Rensselaer, vs. Cairo-Durham, 17 pts, L     113-36-12
Logan Samarija, Maple Hill, vs. Hudson, 22 pts, L     113-37-12
Ryan Havlick, Taconic Hills, vs. Chatham, 14 pts, W     114-37-12
Travis Overby, Chatham, @ Waterford, 23 pts (12/9/12), W     115-37-12
Jordan Brantley, Catskill, vs. Coxsackie-Athens, 27 pts, W     116-37-12
Elijah Burns, LaSalle, vs. Bishop Maginn, 16 pts, W     117-37-12
Rory Siy, Doane Stuart, @ New Lebanon, 26 pts, W     118-37-12
Will Turner, Fonda-Fultonville, @ Cobleskill, 22 pts, W     119-37-12

Ryan Hennessy and Dylan Toscano, Mayfield, @ Canajoharie, 20 pts each, L     119-38-12

Josh Orton, Waterford , vs. Doane Stuart, 19 pts, W     120-38-12

Greg Stire, CBA, vs. Albany , 18 pts, W     121-38-12
Javion Ogunyemi, Troy , @ Schenectady , 25 pts, W     122-38-12
Brian Brooks and Anthony Mack, Catholic Central, @ Bishop Gibbons, 20 pts each, W     123-38-12
Jared Beattie, Granville, @ Hoosick Falls, 17 pts, L     123-39-12
Shane Lyon, Schuylerville, vs. Stillwater, 18 pts, W     124-39-12
Ethan Ross-Hixson, Hoosic Valley, @ Tamarac, 17 pts, W     125-39-12
Colin Oswald, Greenwich, vs. Cambridge, 19 pts, W     126-39-12
George Lehoisky and Nick Sapienza, Fort Ann and North Warren, 15 pts each, T     126-39-13
Josh Hoagland, Whitehall, vs. Lake George, 24 pts, L     126-40-13 
Joey Lufkin, Argyle, @ Hadley-Luzerne, 32 pts, W     127-40-13
Nate Burkhardt, Fort Edward, @ Corinth, 13 pts, L     127-41-13
Kyle Hall, Maple Hill, vs. Taconic Hills, 25 pts, L     127-42-13
Jordan Brantley, Catskill, @ Hudson, 26 pts, W     128-42-13
Shawn Pondillo, Rensselaer, @ Greenville, 16 pts, W     129-42-13
John Sica, Bethlehem, vs. Colonie, 19 pts, W     130-42-13
Conrad Zampier, Columbia, vs. Averill Park, 24 pts, W     131-42-13
Grant Massaroni, Mohonasen, vs. Guilderland, 30 pts, L     131-43-13
Jeremy Mendrick, Ballston Spa, @ Shenendehowa, 22 pts, W     132-43-13
Robert Knightes, Burnt Hills, vs. Niskayuna, 23 pts, W     133-43-13
Christopher Byno, Saratoga Springs, @ Shaker, 18 pts, L     133-44-13
Malik Miller, Lansingburgh, vs. Mechanicville, 18 pts, W     134-44-13
Shane Morris, Ichabod Crane, @ Germantown , 18 pts, W     135-44-13
Tyler Bianchine, Sharon Springs, vs. Schoharie, 20 pts, L     135-45-13
Mudge, Hunter-Tannersville, vs. Coxsackie-Athens, 24 pts, W     136-45-13
Brandon LaForest, Cohoes, @ Ravena, 20 pts, W     137-45-13
Ryan Czarnecki, Saratoga Catholic, vs. Northville, 21 pts, W     138-45-13
Everest, Johnstown, vs. South Glens Falls, 22 pts, L     138-46-13
Asa Barnhill, Gloversville, @ Glens Falls, 18 pts, L     138-47-13
Ben Bellandi, Broadalbin-Perth, @ Queensbury, 22 pts, W     139-47-13
Andrew Tabbert, Scotia-Glenville, @ Hudson Falls, 24 pts, W     140-47-13
Dominic Caputo, Schalmont, vs. Voorheesville, 27 pts, W     141-47-13
Caleb Steward, Mekeel Academy, vs. Berne-Knox, 37 pts, W     142-47-13
Nick Sapienza, North Warren, vs. Hadley-Luzerne, 25 pts, W     143-47-13
Mat Yamin, Loudonville Christian, vs. Hawthorne Valley, 29 pts, W     144-47-13
Greg Depaolis, Berlin, vs. New Lebanon, 30 pts, W     145-47-13
Austin Horton, Heatly, @ Germantown, 21 pts, L     145-48-13  

Girls Week 4 - 12/11/12 - 12/17/12 
Lyndsey Wadsworth, Northville, @ St. Johnsville, 18 pts, W     105-19-4
Frankie Pearson, Hoosick Falls, vs. Greenwich, 25 pts, W     106-19-4
Jenna Erickson, Tamarac, vs. Stillwater, 20 pts, W     107-19-4
Cassidy Chapko, Hoosic Valley, @ Granville, 24 pts, W     108-19-4
Cayla Heffern, Heatly, @ Berlin, 10 pts, W     109-19-4
Cassidy Allen, Loudonville Christian, @ Hawthorne Valley, 9 pts, W     110-19-4
Emia Willingham-Hurst, Albany, @ Schenectady, 21 pts, W     111-19-4
Cortlynn Jepsen, Hudson, @ Maple Hill, 14 pts, L     111-20-4
Kelly Meyer, Catskill, vs. Coxsackie-Athens, 20 pts, W     112-20-4
Ashley Acker, Shenendehowa, vs. Saratoga Springs, 15 pts, W     113-20-4
Madison Rowland, Shaker, vs. Burnt Hills, 17 pts, W     114-20-4
Gabby Giacone, Bethlehem, vs. Guilderland, 22 pts, W     115-20-4
Sydnie Rosales, Colonie, @ Averill Park, 25 pts, L     115-21-4
Kelsey Cowell, Mohonasen, vs. Columbia, 23 pts, L     115-22-4
Emilie Benton, Nisakyuna, vs. Ballston Spa, 12 pts, W     116-22-4
Nera Brajac, Cohoes, @ Lansingburgh, 16 pts, W     117-22-4
Anna Feller, Voorheesville, @ Fonda-Fultonville, 22 pts, L     117-23-4
Hope Rebeor, Ravena, vs. Ichabod Crane, 22 pts, W     118-23-4
Hannah Friend, Holy Names, vs. Mechanicville, 21 pts, W     119-23-4
Hailee Metzold, Schalmont, vs. Albany Academy, 17 pts, W     120-23-4
Ailayia Demand, Watevliet, vs. Cobleskill, 24 pts, W     121-23-4
Cristiana Johnson, Amsterdam, vs. Bishop Gibbons, 13 pts, W     122-23-4
Kiana Patterson, Troy, @ Catholic Central, 15 pts, W     123-23-4
Elizabeth Harvey, Berne-Knox, vs. Greenville, 19 pts, W     124-23-4
Abby Spagnola, Galway, vs. Mayfield, 13 pts, W     125-23-4
Haley Kilmartin, Fort Plain, vs. Canajoharie, 17 pts, W     126-23-4
Sam Godfrey, Fort Edward, vs. Whitehall, 17 pts, W     127-23-4
Hannah Murphy, Corinth, @ North Warren, 16 pts, W     128-23-4
Jordan Aubin, Fort Ann, @ Salem, 23 pts, W     129-23-4
Jacquelyn Miller, Argyle, vs. Hartford, 20 pts, W     130-23-4
Erin Langworthy, Warrensburg, @ Bolton, 15 pts, W     131-23-4
Brittany Hoose, Cairo-Durham, @ Rensselaer, 10 pts, W     132-23-4
Shelby Preston, Ravena, @ Cohoes, 25 pts, L     132-24-4
Jillian Davis, Queensbury, @ Broadalbin-Perth, 27 pts, W     133-24-4
Brianna O'Rourke and Alexis Smith, Johnstown and South Glens Falls, 17 pts each, T     133-24-5
Madison Purcell, Catholic Central, vs. Bishop Gibbons, 21 pts, W     134-24-5
Lyndsey Wadsworth, Northville, vs. Saratoga Catholic, 22 pts, W     135-24-5
Rachel Pine, Hoosick Falls, @ Granville, 21 pts, W     136-24-5
Tori Menneto, Stillwater, vs. Schuylerville, 18 pts, W     137-24-5
Jenna Erickson, Tamarac, @ Hoosic Valley, 17 pts, L     137-25-5
Sarah Cuddihy, Cambridge, vs. Greenwich, 14 pts, L     137-26-5
3 tied with 15, New Lebanon @ Berlin, T     137-26-6
Jordan Aubin, Fort Ann, vs. North Warren, 25 pts, W     138-26-6
Jenelle Dillenbeck, Canajoharie, @ Mayfield, 16 pts, W     139-26-6
Elizabeth Harvey, Berne-Knox, vs. Mekeel Academy, 35 pts, W     140-26-6
Emily Gaige, Schoharie, vs. Sharon Springs, 17 pts, W    141-26-6
Amanda Roney, Middleburgh, @ Duanesburg, 16 pts, W     142-26-6
Brittney Putorti, Whitehall, @ Lake George, 16 pts, L     142-27-6
Jacquelyn Miller, Argyle, vs. Hadley-Luzerne, 25 pts, W    143-27-6
Erin Langworthy, Warrensburg, vs. Salem, 18 pts, W     144-27-6
Hannah Murphy, Corinth, @ Fort Edward, 14 pts, L     144-28-6
Morgan Wicks, Hartford, vs. Bolton, 18 pts, W     145-28-6
Lindsay Mannion, Maple Hill, @ Taconic Hills,  11 pts, W     146-28-6
Cortlynn Jepsen, Hudson, @ Catskill, 23 pts, W     147-28-6
Heather Carl, Greenville, @ Rensselaer, 17 pts, W     148-28-6
Carly Boland, Shenendehowa, @ Ballston Spa, 26 pts, W     149-28-6
Jaclyn Welch, Colonie, vs. Bethlehem, 17 pts, L     149-29-6
Madison Rowland, Shaker, @ Saratoga Springs, 29 pts, W     150-29-6
Lauren Von Roy and Caraline Wood, Averill Park vs. Columbia 18 pts each, W     151-29-6
Shannon Mackesey, Guilderland, vs. Mohonasen, 10 pts, W     152-29-6
Morgan Sullivan, Burnt Hills, @ Niskayuna, 11 pts, W     153-29-6
Hailee Metzold, Schalmont, @ Voorheesville, 15 pts, L     153-30-6
De'Janaire Deas, Holy Names, vs. Ichabod Crane, 11 pts, W     154-30-6
Tabia Gamble and Aubrie Zecca, Lansingburgh and Mechanicville, 14 pts each, T     154-30-7
Ailayia Demand, Watervliet, @ Albany Academy, 19 pts, W    155-30-7
Emily Parslow, Fonda-Fultonville, vs. Cobleskill, 26 pts, L     155-31-7
Rachel Emery, Loudonville Christian, @ Doane Stuart, 13 pts, W     156-31-7
Shiann Coons, Bishop Maginn, vs. South Glens Falls, 22 pts, L     156-32-7
Nicole Conley, Scotia-Glenville, vs. Hudson Falls, 15 pts, W     157-32-7
Carly Brazil and Abby Fountain, Waterford, vs. Heatly, 15 pts each, W     158-32-7
Hannah Bowersox, Schoharie, vs. Fort Plain, 20 pts, L     158-33-7
Kaylie Fish and Natalie Pikus, Saratoga Catholic, vs. Hartford, 10 pts each, W     159-33-7
Cayla Heffern, Heatly, vs. Germantown, 14 pts, W     160-33-7
Skylar Girard, Glens Falls, vs. South Glens Falls, 19 pts, W     161-33-7
Heather Carl, Greenville, @ Hudson, 15 pts, W     162-33-7

Tuesday, December 18, 2012

First Thoughts on Tonight's Games 12/18/12

My first thought is I shouldn't have hit "send" on my last post.  Although it does illustrate what I was talking about that LaSalle plays up (or down) to its competition with its loss tonight to Catholic Central.  The part I was wrong about was that they are the third best team in the Big 10.  While I think they are still close to Schenectady, I don't believe Schenectady will be having a loss like this on their schedule, especially after their strong performance tonight with a one point loss to CBA.  All things being equal I still think the Big 10 is up for grabs with CBA the slight favorite, and they still do have 4 potential teams with Sectional championship pedigree.

All the scores aren't in yet, but I also noticed a couple teams continued dominance in their respective leagues tonight.  Joe Cremo threw up another 20 in a 39 point win over Broadalbin-Perth and Joey Lufkin put up 28 in Argyle's 35 point win over Fort Ann.  On the other side of the Adirondack, Joel Wincowski dropped 31 in a 40 point win over Warrensburg and Nigel Gray's 19 was the difference in Catskill's win over Maple Hill.  Shaker might also be separating themselves in the Suburban with a 31 point win over Averill Park.  Finally, in less dominant fashion, Fort Plain beat Northville in another low single digit WAC North game to stay undefeated in Conference play.  All of these teams seem to be rolling and with the exception Fort Plain (only because a loss probably isn't an upset as every game is so close) I don't see any losses like LaSalle had tonight.

In the girls world there wasn't too much out of the ordinary.  Scotia's two point win over Broadalbin-Perth was closer than I would have guessed, but in their case, a win is a win.  Tamarac and Hoosic Valley continued their dominance in the Wasaren with strong performances from Tamarac's top two scorers, Jenna Erickson and Briana Matazinsky and from Hoosic Valley's Cassidy Chapko.  Waterford also put up another huge win over Hawthorne Valley.

The most interesting game tonight was from the Colonial where we got a little clarity with Holy Names' 8 point win over Watervliet.  Certainly not a blowout, but it cleared up the question as they are most likely the top two teams in the Colonial.  As for the rest of the Conference, it's still a mess with 2, 4 and 5 point games in three of the other four games.

Overall, a good night of basketball with around 50 more games in the database.  The first Sectional Forecast is rapidly approaching.  I'm getting things ready now, so stay tuned.

Monday, December 17, 2012

Where Does LaSalle Stand in Big 10

There is a good article from Eric Medved about underclassmen scorers (please let me know if the link isn't working) in the section this year.  It is a trend I also noticed and am trying to find the time to put some numbers to it so you can see just what he is talking about.  Maintaining the scores database is going well, but the box scores database is taking a lot longer than I expected and I haven't even started the girls yet.  So, I apologize for not getting more into the scorers as I had previously mentioned, but it's hard to keep up doing this part time.

What I did want to get into was another early trend I noticed with LaSalle.  They have proven they belong in the conversation with a win over Troy and a single digit loss to CBA, but their other two wins over Amsterdam and Bishop Maginn make me wonder if they play more to the level of their competition.  That's not necessarily a bad thing.  It is certainly a good attribute to have to be able to get up for a big game, and perform.  But, a 9 point win over, by all accounts, a mediocre Bishop Maginn and a 24 point win over an Amsterdam team that is over matched in the Big 10 don't exactly send chills up your spine.  Right now I would put them a solid third just ahead of Schenectady and just behind Troy.  I am curious to see how they respond in the next few games and their rematches with CBA and Troy. 

If LaSalle comes out of league play as the 3rd seed in the Big 10 and keeps up their trend of playing up to their competition, they could be very dangerous in sectionals.

Friday, December 14, 2012

State of Section 2 Basketball (Girls edition)

With the benefit of an extra Friday slate of games a full analysis of the Section 2 leagues and conferences is upon you.  This one is a bit more interesting for me as this is the first time I've delved into this type of analysis for girls basketball.  A couple of quick notes before I start.  I've been noticing a few differences between the girls and boys stats so far.  First of all, if you've been following the leading scorer posts you've seen how in the girls games, the leading scorer's team is more likely to win than for the boys.  I think this lends itself to my previous thoughts that there might be a bit more parity in boys basketball.  The plus side for the girls is that it might lead to better and more dominant teams, and it's always fun to watch greatness.

Another thing I've noticed is that the private schools in the girls aren't as much of a force as on the boys side.  The team with the larger enrollment (typically the public school) is currently winning 60% in girls basketball and only 46% in boys basketball.  I think this is mainly due to Emma Willard's significant enrollment advantage over the other teams in the CHVL, but another factor is there is no dominant team like CBA on the girls side consistently beating teams with greater enrollments.  Alright, enough with my side notes, without further adieu, the State of the Section.

Girls CHVL

We got a big clue as to how this is going to play out tonight with Waterford beating Heatly by 33.  Waterford has won their five league games by an average of 44 points.  The real question for Waterford is whether or not they'll have enough to win sectionals with Hoosic Valley, Maple Hill, Fort Plain and Lake George are waiting.  They could potentially be a 4th or 5th seed in the forecast with that lineup.  Heatly and Emma Willard are next in line but there is a bit of separation between each of the three and with them and the rest of the league.

Girls Adirondack

The East division looks like it could be a solid three team battle between Argyle, Fort Ann and Fort Edward.  FE beat Argyle by one in their meeting and Argyle and FA have comparable Margins of Victory (MOV) in their common opponents.  All of these teams will also be fighting for the D sectional title.

In the West, Lake George looks to have the upper hand but Warrensburg isn't far behind.  The West appears to be playing second fiddle to the East this year with LG beating Hartford by single digits who is already 0-2 in East play.

Girls WAC

Similar to the boys the Southern division has barely played a league game yet, but each of the class C teams has decent out of league wins or near misses.  This might be a situation where the team that comes out of it on top has a few losses and could be a tough out as a lower seed in sectionals.

On north side of town Fort Plain and Galway have shown the most promise and FP already has a low single digit win vs. Galway.  At this point they are in the driver's seat and it is theirs to lose.

Girls Wasaren

There was a tight game tonight for the leader in the Wasaren between Hoosic Valley and Tamarac with HV coming out on top by 1 point.  That is their 3rd one point game out of six total games played.  Both teams played tough out of league games so far and this is going to come down to one of them for the title.  I'm looking forward to the rematch in this one.  One more thing to point out here.  Last year HV beat Catholic Central by 20 points.  CC only lost 2 Big 10 games last year and those were by a combined 9 points (oh yeah, those two losses were to Albany who lost in the AA final).  This year HV lost to CC by 1.  It's not often you find C schools that can consistently compete at the same or greater level than solid AA schools and you almost never see it on the boys side.  It's one of the things I'm starting to like about girls basketball.  The girls have a different kind of parity, between the really good teams.

Girls Patroon

Things start and end with Maple Hill in the Patroon.  Taconic Hills will probably end up 2nd and they just lost by 13 to MH.  Again, the most important question in the Patroon is whether or not MH has enough to get through the C bracket.  I'm really looking forward to the first forecast for this one.

Girls Colonial

There's a gaggle (yes I said gaggle) of good teams here but this is going to come down to Watervliet and Holy Names.  The Colonial Council in both boys and girls basketball remains one of the toughest in Section 2 and I'm glad I don't have to navigate through their league schedules.  Voorheesville beat Schalmont by 2, Schalmont beat Albany Academy by 8, AA lost to Cohoes by 4 and Cohoes beat Ravena by 4.  It's a mess, but fun to look at.

Girls Independent

Albany Leadership finds itself without a home but at least they are playing Section 2 teams, which the model appreciates.   They probably won't compete this year but every team provides useful data.

Girls Foothills

Not a whole lot to go on yet, but Scotia and South Glens Falls are both 2-0 with close wins over Johnstown who is now 0-2 and in a tough spot for what seems to be a very competitive team.  Queensbury is also 2-0 but not sure where that is going as they haven't played either SG or SGF.  On a side note, if anyone knows why Gloversville doesn't have girls team, I'd be interested to know.

Girls Big 10

Did anyone notice I put the Big 10 before the Suburban unlike what I did in the boys SOS?  That's because for all the dominance the Big 10 has in boys basketball, the Suburban has it in girls basketball.  They have won 8 of the 9 AA championships since the change to 5 classes and have fielded 16 of the 18 title game participants.  This year the Big 10 looks an awful lot like last year.  Albany and Troy have the most impressive results at the moment with Catholic Central a close third.

Girls Suburban

For all the love I gave the Colonial Council, this might be the toughest league in 2012-2013 for both boys and girls.  The defending AA champs returning their best player are currently 1-2.  If I had to pick right now I'd have to say Bethlehem wins the South and Shaker the North, but I'm not counting out Colonie yet and Averill Park and Shen are still players.  That's 5 teams, 4 in AA that are really good.  I wouldn't bet against another all Suburban AA final. 

Thursday, December 13, 2012

State of Section 2 Basketball (Boys edition)

I've gone through each League and/or Conference in Section 2 and laid out where we stand at this early stage in the season.  Since we haven't gotten to the point where a full Sectional Forecast can be given, perhaps this can satisfy the desire (even if it's only mine) for info.  From the CHVL to the Big 10, they are all covered.  I'll be following this up with one for the girls in the next couple days.  On a programming note, I've decided to hold the first forecast til around the 1st of the year.  The Independents and a couple other teams are throwing things off a bit since they really haven't played many in-section games.  Without further adieu, the State of the Section....

In the CHVL the boys play a 14 game league schedule and although they are only 3 or 4 games in you can already see this is probably going to be a two team race and those two teams have already played each other.  Germantown and Loudonville Christian are 3-1 and 4-0 in the league respectively with Germantown’s loss coming at the hands of LC by 3 points.  They are currently the only two teams in the league with positive point differentials with both being over 100.  I think the key for who wins the league will be in who performs best against the next tier of teams of Berlin , Doane Stuart and Heatly.
Boys Adirondack
We may already know who is going win each of the Adirondack divisions.  Argyle is 3-0 in East division league play and has an impressive win over Hoosick Falls in the Wasaren.  That helps in determining whether or not they are really that good or just playing in a weak league.  I think the Adirondack is down a bit this year as a whole, but Argyle is certainly not to blame.  The next closest team is probably For Ann but unless they gel as a team more than they already have it most likely won’t be that close. 
In the West it’s almost the same story for Lake George .  They have won each of their 3 games by 32 points.  They just don’t have the same kind of out of league win that Argyle has.  Warrensburg and North Warren should be fighting for 2nd and 3rd place in this one.
Boys WAC
The WAC South has yet to play a conference game and I haven’t recorded a single game for Middleburgh.  There has been only one common opponent so all I can really tell at this point is that Duanesburg is probably better than Sharon Springs .  Mekeel Academy is the only B school and if history is any guide they’ll be on top this year.
In the WAC North there has been limited action, but it looks like this one could go down to the wire.  Fort Plain currently has the upper hand but 5 of the 9 games played have been single digit victories and 3 of the other 4 were all against the same team.  They are the only team without at the least an outside chance to take the division.
Boys Wasaren
This year’s Wasaren looks like a four team battle.  Hoosic Valley struck the first blew against Hoosick Falls in close game in HF so they have the early lead, but Schuylerville and Stillwater each have 2-0 records as well.  The wild cards here are how Greenwich and Granville play each of these four teams.  They are a tier below the top four, but don’t be surprised if they throw an upset against one or more of them and ruin someone’s title hopes.
Boys Patroon
The Patroon Conference plays 16 conference games so it should be pretty clear at the end who is the best.  Presently, however it’s a different story.  Catskill is undefeated and looks to be on their way, but Cairo-Durham, Hudson and Maple Hill aren’t far behind.  My guess is that CD, Hudson and MH take each other out of the running and Catskill is left standing.  The most interesting game so far has been a non-leaguer with Maple Hill and Hoosic Valley .  HV won by 18 and though both teams will probably finish with comparable records, HV’s 7 point win over Hoosick Falls might indicate the Wasaren class C’s have a very slight edge on the Patroon’s C’s.
Boys Colonial
There haven’t been a lot of games in the Colonial so far this year, but I’m going out on a limb and saying Watervliet will win this going away.  They might drop a game or two, but if I said the same thing any other year I’d feel alright about it so why change now.  Unfortunately there just isn’t much to go on with the teams not having many common opponents at this point.  In another two weeks we’ll be able to connect the dots a bit better and will revisit.

Boys Foothills
Not much to go on here, but Scotia looks to be strong again this year winning their three games by a combined 116 points.  Based on common opponents, Hudson Falls , Johnstown and South Glens Falls don’t look to be up to the task.  We’ll see how the rest of the league shakes out with Broadalbin-Perth, Glens Falls , Gloversville and Queensbury stacked up behind Scotia .
Boys Independents

Green Tech and Albany Academy don't currently belong to a league and have each only played 1 in-section game, both to Lansingburgh.  Both were wins, which shouldn't be surprising.  I have been referencing individual game point margins, but it is important to note they are much more useful when taken as a whole than individually.  These two teams show no greater proof as GT beat Lansingburgh by 45 more points than AA and then lost to Kingston by 17 while AA beat beat Kingston by 14.  So even though GT has a 14 point edge in Margin of Victory (MOV), AA went 2-0 and GT went 1-1

Boys Suburban

The Suburban has 4 undefeated teams but no one has played more than two league games.  Shaker looks the most impressive so far, but I'm sure Shen will be in the hunt as the season moves on.  In the South Division both Bethlehem and Colonie are 2-0.  There has only been one game between the two divisions so it's hard to even get a read on how they compare within the league.  For any league with 12 teams it's gonig to take longer to see how things line up.  More time will help clear up the questions.

Boys Big 10

We actually have some games to look at here and even had one surprise already.  The Big 10 over the past decade has been CBA's to lose and until proven otherwise that has to be where we stand.  That doesn't mean they run away with it.  Schenectady and Troy have two common opponents and both beat them by the same combined 50 points.  By now we've all seen or heard about LaSalle's 2 point overtime win against Troy, and LaSalle lost to CBA by single digits.  I still have to think Troy expects to be in contention until the end but, at this point, there really is not much separation at all between these four teams.  I'm sure we'll see somebody bow out earlier than later, after all, someone has to lose these games, but there is potential for this to be a four team run to the end and leave the Big 10 four solid chances at a 10th consecutive AA sectional title.

Wednesday, December 12, 2012

Week Three Leading Scorer Tally

We had a big week and lots of games.  While the leading scorers are still doing pretty well, they seem to be coming back down to Earth a bit on the boys side, but are still holding strong on the girls side.  Leading scorer's are currently winning .776 in boys games and .846 in girls games.

Boys Week 3 - 12/4/12 - 12/10/12
Keneef Danzy and Jeremy Nixon, Albany and Bishop Maginn, 12 pts, T     49-8-3
Anthony Mack, Catholic Central, vs. Amsterdam , 30 pts, W     50-8-3
Ralph Erickson, LaSalle, vs. Troy , 28 pts, W     51-8-3
Dwayne Freeman, Bishop Gibbons, vs. CBA, 23 pts, L     51-9-3
Derek Durkee, Fort Ann , vs. Hartford , 24 pts, W     52-9-3
Pat LaPorte, Salem,  @ Whitehall, 22 pts, L     52-10-3
Joey Lufkin, Argyle, @ Fort Edward , 34 pts, W     53-10-3
Ethan Wincowski, Lake George, vs. Corinth , 23 pts, W     54-10-3
Nick Perrone and Jesse DeMarsh, Warrensburg and Hadley-Luzerne, 18 pts, T     54-10-4
Nick Sapienza, North Warren, @ Bolton, 14 pts, W     55-10-4
Kyle Hall, Maple Hill, @ Coxsackie-Athens, 17 pts, W     56-10-4
Caleb Gregg, Chatham , @ Rensselaer , 15 pts, L     56-11-4
Brenner Bachman, Greenville , vs. Hudson , 28 pts L     56-12-4
Nigel Gray and Sawyer Spohler, Catskill and Cairo-Durham, 13 pts, T     56-12-5
Hunter Goodwin, Gloversville , @ Averill Park , 14 pts, L     56-13-5
Zach Sweet, Fort Plain, @ Mayfield, 17 pts, W     57-13-5
Dylan Klock, St. Johnsville, @ Schoharie, 17 pts, L     57-14-5
Dominic Caputo, Schalmont, Neutral floor Hudson Falls, 22 pts, W     58-14-5
Joe Cremo, Scotia-Glenville, vs. Ravena, 30 pts, W     59-14-5
J. Kelly, Richfield Springs, @ Sharon Springs , 10 pts, W     60-14-5
Ryan Czarnecki, Saratoga Central Catholic, @ Galway , 15 pts, W     61-14-5
Charlie Peltz,Queensbury, @ Niskayuna, 19 pts, W     62-14-5
Andre Taylor, Broadalbin-Perth, vs. Schuylerville, 21 pts, W     63-14-5
Caleb Stewart, Mekeel Christian Academy , vs. Mechanicville, 16 pts, L     63-15-5
Hoosac School @ Green Tech
Ezra Glatt, Hawthorne Valley , vs. Heatly, 22 pts, L     63-16-5
Zach Folts, Canajoharie, @ Northville, 15 pts, W     64-16-5
Rory Siy, Doane Stuart, @ Berlin , 19 pts, W     65-16-5
Nolan Lewis, Germantown , @ Waterford , 22 pts, W     66-16-5
Mat Yamin, Loudonville Christian, vs. New Lebanon, 22 pts, W     67-16-5
Pat LaPorte, Salem, vs. Bolton, 14 pts, W     68-16-5
Devin Murphy, Schalmont, @ Fonda-Fultonville, 13 pts, W     69-16-5
Jerrell Reid, Troy, @ Bishop Maginn, 22 pts, W     70-16-5
Anthony Mack, Catholic Central, vs. Schenectady, 18 pts, L     70-17-5
Dwayne Freeman, Bishop Gibbons, @ Albany, 34 pts, L     70-18-5
John Rooney, Hoosic Valley, @ Hoosick Falls, 19 pts, W     71-18-5
Ryan Buell, Schuylerville, vs. Greenwich, 9 pts, W     72-18-5
Jared Beattie, Granville, vs. Stillwater, 34 pts, L     72-19-5
Matt Parmenter, Cambridge, @ Tamarac, 17 pts, L     72-20-5
Joey Lufkin, Argyle, @ North Warren, 35 pts, W     73-20-5
Ryan Collier, Fort Edward, @ Warrensburg, 28 pts, L     73-21-5
Ethan Wincowski, Lake George, vs. Hartford, 26 pts, W     74-21-5
Blake Basmajian, Corinth, vs. Whitehall, 17 pts, W     75-21-5
Kyle Hall and Travis Overby, Maple Hill and Chatham, 18 pts, T     75-21-6
Mike Bowes, Hudson, vs. Coxackie-Athens, 15 pts, W     76-21-6
Dean Mazzacelli, Taconic Hills, vs. Rensselaer, 16 pts, W     77-21-6
Jordan Brantley, Catskill, @ Greenville, 17 pts, W     78-21-6
Myles Bergere and Lucas Ziegler, Bethlehem and Averill Park, 17 pts, T     78-21-7
Conrad Zampier and Marc Dumoulin, Columbia and Guilderland, 18 pts, T     78-21-8
Jake Samuels, Colonie, @ Mohonasen, 22 pts, W     79-21-8
Rob Knightes and Chris Byno, Burnt Hills and Saratoga Springs, 20 pts, T     79-21-9
Andrew Holmes, Shaker, vs. Ballston Spa, 16 pts, W     80-21-9
Brian Ginter, Northville, @ Sharon Springs, 11 pts, W     81-21-9
Mike Cannizzo, Mechanicville, @ Ravena, 18 pts, L     81-22-9
Jordan Gleason, Watervliet, vs. Voorheesville, 28 pts, W     82-22-9
Eli Newsome, Cohoes , vs. Ichabod Crane, 21 pts, W     83-22-9
Josh Gonzalez, Canajoharie, @ Saratoga Catholic, 24 pts, W     84-22-9
Nick Marini and Greg Stire, CBA, @ Amsterdam, 9 pts each, W     85-22-9
Chris Hanifin, Fort Plain, Neutral floor Chatham , 21 pts, W     86-22-9
Thomas, James Monroe, @ Green Tech, 20 pts, L     86-23-9
Mark McCarty and Jordan Brantley, New Lebanon and Catskill, 12 pts each, T     86-23-10
Anthony Mack, Catholic Central, Neutral floor Kellenberg, 20 pts, L     86-24-10
Nigel Gray, Catskill, Neutral floor Fort Plain, 20 pts, W     87-24-10
Nolan Lewis, Germantown , @ Doane Stuart, 18 pts, W     88-24-10
Austin Horton, Heatly, vs. Waterford , 19 pts, W     89-24-10
Zack Krajkowski, New Lebanon , vs. Hawthorne Valley , 21 pts, L     89-25-10
Parmentor, Cambridge Latin, @ Mechanicville, 18 pts, L     89-26-10
Gabe Brown, Loudonville Christian, @ Berlin , 24 pts, W     90-26-10

Girls Week 3 - 12/4/12 - 12/10/12
Cayla Heffern, Heatly, vs. Emma Willard, 13 pts, W     47-7-2
Kendra Houston, New Lebanon, vs. Hawthorne Valley, 10 pts, W     48-7-2
Jenna Erickson, Tamarac, vs. Johnstown, 23 pts, W     49-7-2
Shadasia Alston and Cassia Gravensande, Cohoes and Albany Academy, 12 pts each, T     49-7-3
Emia Willingham-Hurst, Albany, vs. Bishop Maginn, 23 pts, W     50-7-3
Cassidy Chapko, Hoosic Valley, vs. Scotia-Glenville, 22 pts, L     50-8-3
Megan Phelan, Germantown, @ Doane Stuart, 15 pts, W     51-8-3
Emily Forcier, Hudson Falls, vs. Schuylerville, 14 pts, W     52-8-3
Hannah Saroff, Lake George, vs. Corinth, 15 pts, W     53-8-3
Regan McFerran, Catholic Central, @ Amsterdam, 20 pts, W     54-8-3
Dainera Veeder, Canajoharie, vs. Northville, 13 pts, W     55-8-3
Erica Chase, Galway, @ Saratoga Catholic, 10 pts, W     56-8-3
Skylar Girard, Glens Falls, vs. Hoosick Falls, 22 pts, W     57-8-3
Carly Brazil, Waterford, vs. Loudonville Christian, 18 pts, W     58-8-3
Abby Boyer, Fort Plain, vs. Mayfield, 21 pts, W     59-8-3
Jordan Aubin and Kara White, Fort Ann, @ Hartford, 10 pts, W     60-8-3
Brittney Putorti, Whitehall, @ Salem, 16 pts, W     61-8-3
Jacquelyn Miller, Argyle, vs. Fort Edward, 26 pts, L     61-9-3
Elle Underwood, North Warren, vs. Bolton, 15 pts, W     62-9-3
Lindsay Mannion, Maple Hill, vs. Coxsackie-Athens, 16 pts, W     63-9-3
Lauren Konsul, Catskill, vs. Cairo-Durham, 22 pts, W     64-9-3
Alyssa Keeler and Jessina Kelly, Chatham, vs. Rensselaer, 10 pts, W     65-9-3
Amelia Stapleton, Doane Stuart, vs. Doane Stuart, 8 pts, W     66-9-3
Maggie Gordon, Berlin, @ Emma Willard, 11 pts, L     66-10-3
Carly Brazil, Waterford, @ Germantown, 20 pts, W     67-10-3
Miller, Richfield Springs, vs. Sharon Springs, 13 pts, W     68-10-3
Emia Willingham-Hurst, Albany, @ Bishop Gibbons, 20 pts, W     69-10-3
Cayla Heffern, Heatly, @ Loudonville Christian, 22 pts, W     70-10-3
Bella Nelson, Maple Hill, @ Chatham, 12 pts, W     71-10-3
Kayla Brenz, Schuylerville, @ Greenwich, 16 pts, L    71-11-3
Cassidy Chapko, Hoosic Valley, vs. Hoosick Falls, 16 pts, W      72-11-3
Mary Pattison, Troy, vs. Bishop Maginn, 16 pts, W     73-11-3
Kaylie Fish, Saratoga Catholic, @ Canajoharie, 16 pts, L     73-12-3
Tori Menneto, Stillwater, vs. Granville, 13 pts, W     74-12-3
Abby Boyer, Fort Plain, @ Galway, 18 pts, W     75-12-3
Rylie Smith, St. Johnsville, @ Mayfield, 21 pts, L     75-13-3
Christina Tucker, Argyle, vs. North Warren, 18 pts, W    76-13-3
Brittany Sardina, Fort Edward, vs. Warrensburg, 13 pts, W     77-13-3
Sydney Coon, South Glens Falls, vs. Hudson Falls, 11 pts, W     78-13-3
Dana Kupiec, Salem, @ Bolton, 18 pts, L     78-14-3
Mackenzie Bennett, Lake George, @ Hartford, 14 pts, W     79-14-3
Jordan Aubin, Fort Ann, vs. Hadley-Luzerne, 24 pts, W     80-14-3
Danielle Simmons, Rensselaer, @ Taconic Hills, 16 pts, L     80-15-3
Heather Carl and Kassidi Bulich, Greenville and Catskill, 13 pts, T     80-15-4
Naslasja Johnston, Columbia, vs. Guilderland, 12 pts, L     80-16-4
Gabby Giacone, Bethlehem, vs. Averill Park, 31 pts, W     81-16-4
Sydnie Rosales, Colonie, vs. Mohonasen, 22 pts, W     82-16-4
Lindsay Rutz, Saratoga Springs, @ Burnt Hills, 14 pts, W     83-16-4
Madison Rowland, Shaker, @ Ballston Spa, 20 pts, W     84-16-4
Isabella Vanelli, Cohoes, @ Ichabod Crane, 21 pts, W     85-16-4
Hannah Friend, Holy Names, @ Lansingburgh, 18 pts, W     86-16-4
Hope Rebeor, Ravena, @ Mechanicville, 13 pts, W     87-16-4
Morgan Loder, Cobleskill, vs. Albany Academy, 18 pts, W     88-16-4
Hailee Metzold, Schalmont, vs. Fonda-Fultonville, 26 pts, W     89-16-4
Mikayla DeGuire, Watervliet, @ Voorheesville, 16 pts, W     90-16-4
Kaitlin Wood, Broadalbin-Perth, vs. Albany Leadership, 28 pts, W     91-16-4
Skylar Girard, Glens Falls, @ Queensbury, 14 pts, L     91-17-4
Madison Purcell, Catholic Central, @ Schenectady, 19 pts, W     92-17-4
Jenna Erickson and Briana Matazinsky, Tamarac, @ Cambridge, 15 pts, W     93-17-4
Shiann Coons, Bishop Maginn, vs. Emma Willard, 24 pts, W     94-17-4
Stephanie Rice, Duanesburg, vs. Chatham, 23 pts, W     95-17-4
Hope Cerasulo, Johnstown, vs. Amsterdam, 14 pts, W     96-17-4
Abby Fountain, Waterford, vs. Taconic Hills, 20 pts, L     96-18-4
Savanna Fistrowicz, Edmeston, @ Sharon Springs, 14 pts, W     97-18-4
Shiann Coons, Bishop Maginn, Neutral floor Taconic Hills, 21 pts, W     98-18-4
Natalie Kiley-Bergen, Emma Willard, Neutral floor Chatham, 14 pts, W     99-18-4
Stephanie Rice, Duanesburg, @ Waterford, 15 pts, W     100-18-4
Meaghen Sausville, Emma Willard, vs. Doane Stuart, 18 pts, W     101-18-4
Natalie Pikus, Saratoga Catholic, @ Whitehall, 14 pts, L     101-19-4
Jessica VanOrt, Germantown, vs. New Lebanon, 14 pts, W     102-19-4
Alexis McComb, Taconic Hills, vs. Chatham, 15 pts, W     103-19-4
Cassie Broadhead, Scotia-Glenville, @ Johnstown, 30 pts, W     104-19-4