Sunday, December 30, 2012

Boy's Basketball Sectional Forecast #1

Before I get into this, I would like to make one note about the one difference between the Girl's and Boy's forecast.  I have made it before, but it is an important one.  That is I only have one season of information for the Girl's forecast so the output could be a little more volatile.  I have three seasons for the Boy's so I think you'll see it a little more stable.  Without further adieu, please find the 1st Boy's Sectional Forecast.

Class AA

(1) Green Tech  2-0
(16) Saratoga Springs  3-4
(8) Schenectady  4-3
(9) Colonie  4-2
(5) Shaker  6-0
(12) Ballston Spa  3-4
(4) Troy  5-1
(13) Shenendehowa  3-1
(3) Bethlehem  6-0
(14) Bishop Maginn  3-5
(6) CBA  6-2
(11) Catholic Central  3-3
(7) Columbia  5-1
(10) Guilderland  3-3
(2) Albany Academy  1-0
(15) LaSalle  4-4

Unranked:  Albany, Niskayuna

For the most part, this is what I laid out the other day.  I neglected to put Albany Academy in the discussion because they only have 1 in-section game.  Their position along with Green Tech has the potential to fluctuate more than the others because they play so few in-section games.  Other than Shen, this looks about what I would have thought.  One notable thing about this is the first 4 teams are above the final four number and Shaker at 5 is only a few points back.  Remarkably, CBA isn't really that close.

Class A

(1) Scotia-Glenville  7-0
(16) Bye
(8) Queensbury  3-3
(9) Burnt Hills  1-4
(5) Averill Park  2-4
(12) Bye
(4) South Glens Falls  4-3
(13) Bye
(3) Gloversville  3-3
(14) Bye
(6) Mohonasen  2-5
(11) Bishop Gibbons  0-8
(7) Lansingburgh  3-3
(10) Amsterdam  2-5
(2) Glens Falls  4-2
(15) Bye

I'm not sure I could do any better here, it seems like everyone has beaten everyone else and only by a handful of points.  Lansingburgh beat Mohonasen by 5, Queensbury beat Gloversville by 3, Glens Falls beat Queensbury by 2, Averill Park beat Gloversville by 6, South Glens Falls beat Glens Falls by 3.  I think you get the idea, it's anybody's bracket to get to lose to Scotia in the final.  Only two teams are above the second round threshold.  Scotia who is only a few points away from the final game and Glens Falls who is just barely over winning their first game.  Luckily for the top 5, they get bye's so they don't have to win a game to advance.

Class B

(1) Watervliet  3-0
(16) Greenville  2-5
(8) Taconic Hills  5-3
(9) Broadalbin-Perth  3-4
(5) Ichabod Crane  5-2
(12) Corinth  4-3
(4) Schuylerville  5-1
(13) Tamarac  4-3
(3) Cairo-Durham  5-1
(14) Mekeel Academy  2-2
(6) Cohoes  4-3
(11) Hudson  4-3
(7) Ravena  4-2
(10) Schalmont  5-3
(2) Catskill  9-0
(15) Fonda-Fultonville  3-4

Unranked:  Johnstown, Hudson Falls, Chatham, Granville, Coxsackie-Athens, Cobleskill

The top 4 look right to me, but maybe not in the same order.  I would assume the committee would give Schuylerville the 3rd spot in favor of the 2nd place team in the Patroon, but I think this bracket is going to come down to a rematch of the 2010-2011 BB-B game between Watervliet and Catskill as they are the only two with final four values.  One team that I would watch in the coming weeks is Mekeel Academy.  They usually dominate their league schedule and I only have 4 games logged for them at this point.  They did lose to Mechanicville who is only middle to bottom of the Colonial, so they may not make a run in sectionals, but I don't expect them to be the 14 seed either.  I also think you'll see Cohoes pass Ichabod Crane for the 5th spot and ride up on Schuylerville and Cairo-Durham for their spots as well. 

Class C

(1) Lake George  6-0
(16) Waterford  4-5
(8) Hoosick Falls  3-2
(9) Voorheesville  3-3
(5) Greenwich  6-2
(12) Rensselaer  4-4
(4) Canajoharie  7-2
(13) Mayfield  4-4
(3) Berne-Knox  4-1
(14) Mechanicville  3-4
(6) Schoharie  5-1
(11) Stillwater  3-3
(7) Fort Plain  5-2
(10) Maple Hill  5-5
(2) Hoosic Valley  7-1
(15) Saratoga Catholic  3-5

Unranked:  Berlin, Duanesburg, Whitehall, Cambridge, Middleburgh, Hadley-Luzerne, Galway

I'm going to go out on a limb here even though I really don't need to.  I think Hoosic Valley is going to end up 1 and Lake George 2 and for this reason, Hoosic Valley will probably end with 2 or 3 losses and Lake George will probably end with 1 or 2 because I think Argyle is better than they are, as well I think Schuylerville is better than Hoosic Valley.  Hoosic Valley however, plays a more difficult schedule on the whole than does Lake George.  They are also really close in the ranking and a loss for Lake George could make all the difference.  As far as the rest of the bracket goes, I think Greenwich is a couple spots too high and Hoosick Falls, Voorheesville and Fort Plain are a couple too low, but they have to go somewhere and at best they would just shuffle around.

Class D

(1) Argyle  7-0
(16) Bolton  0-7
(8) Heatly  3-4
(9) St. Johnsville  2-4
(5) Germantown  4-3
(12) Warrensburg  3-4
(4) Fort Ann  4-2
(13) Fort Edward  0-5
(3) North Warren  6-1
(14) Hawthorne Valley  1-4
(6) Northville  4-4
(11) Salem  3-4
(7) Hartford  3-3
(10) Doane Stuart  3-3
(2) Loudonville Christian  7-0
(15) Sharon Springs  0-3

Unranked: New Lebanon

This is the one and only bracket I am in complete agreement with.  Both Argyle and Loudonville Christian have final four values and Argyle is only slightly below the championship game.  Without disrespecting Loudonville Christian and their undefeated record, it seems to me Argyle is the favorite here and by a lot.  They beat the number 3 North Warren by 29.  LC has some nice wins, but nothing that amounts to the whipping Argyle has put on everyone they have faced.  If I had to pick a dark horse, and I'm not sure you can call a 3 seed a dark horse, it would be North Warren.  They have put up some big scores and it feels like they are playing better now than at the beginning of the season.  I wouldn't count out Germantown at 5 from making an unexpected run either but I don't think they can beat Argyle.

Ok, so the first forecast is in the books.  I'm going to try and do these once a week for the rest of the season.  I might be off a day or two, but I'm shooting for Saturday-Sunday, or Sunday-Monday.  I'm going to try to update the leading scorer pages this week as well now that I have everything running smoothly for the forecast.  Enjoy your New Year and be safe on the roads.  I'll be on my couch.

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