Thursday, December 13, 2012

State of Section 2 Basketball (Boys edition)

I've gone through each League and/or Conference in Section 2 and laid out where we stand at this early stage in the season.  Since we haven't gotten to the point where a full Sectional Forecast can be given, perhaps this can satisfy the desire (even if it's only mine) for info.  From the CHVL to the Big 10, they are all covered.  I'll be following this up with one for the girls in the next couple days.  On a programming note, I've decided to hold the first forecast til around the 1st of the year.  The Independents and a couple other teams are throwing things off a bit since they really haven't played many in-section games.  Without further adieu, the State of the Section....

In the CHVL the boys play a 14 game league schedule and although they are only 3 or 4 games in you can already see this is probably going to be a two team race and those two teams have already played each other.  Germantown and Loudonville Christian are 3-1 and 4-0 in the league respectively with Germantown’s loss coming at the hands of LC by 3 points.  They are currently the only two teams in the league with positive point differentials with both being over 100.  I think the key for who wins the league will be in who performs best against the next tier of teams of Berlin , Doane Stuart and Heatly.
Boys Adirondack
We may already know who is going win each of the Adirondack divisions.  Argyle is 3-0 in East division league play and has an impressive win over Hoosick Falls in the Wasaren.  That helps in determining whether or not they are really that good or just playing in a weak league.  I think the Adirondack is down a bit this year as a whole, but Argyle is certainly not to blame.  The next closest team is probably For Ann but unless they gel as a team more than they already have it most likely won’t be that close. 
In the West it’s almost the same story for Lake George .  They have won each of their 3 games by 32 points.  They just don’t have the same kind of out of league win that Argyle has.  Warrensburg and North Warren should be fighting for 2nd and 3rd place in this one.
Boys WAC
The WAC South has yet to play a conference game and I haven’t recorded a single game for Middleburgh.  There has been only one common opponent so all I can really tell at this point is that Duanesburg is probably better than Sharon Springs .  Mekeel Academy is the only B school and if history is any guide they’ll be on top this year.
In the WAC North there has been limited action, but it looks like this one could go down to the wire.  Fort Plain currently has the upper hand but 5 of the 9 games played have been single digit victories and 3 of the other 4 were all against the same team.  They are the only team without at the least an outside chance to take the division.
Boys Wasaren
This year’s Wasaren looks like a four team battle.  Hoosic Valley struck the first blew against Hoosick Falls in close game in HF so they have the early lead, but Schuylerville and Stillwater each have 2-0 records as well.  The wild cards here are how Greenwich and Granville play each of these four teams.  They are a tier below the top four, but don’t be surprised if they throw an upset against one or more of them and ruin someone’s title hopes.
Boys Patroon
The Patroon Conference plays 16 conference games so it should be pretty clear at the end who is the best.  Presently, however it’s a different story.  Catskill is undefeated and looks to be on their way, but Cairo-Durham, Hudson and Maple Hill aren’t far behind.  My guess is that CD, Hudson and MH take each other out of the running and Catskill is left standing.  The most interesting game so far has been a non-leaguer with Maple Hill and Hoosic Valley .  HV won by 18 and though both teams will probably finish with comparable records, HV’s 7 point win over Hoosick Falls might indicate the Wasaren class C’s have a very slight edge on the Patroon’s C’s.
Boys Colonial
There haven’t been a lot of games in the Colonial so far this year, but I’m going out on a limb and saying Watervliet will win this going away.  They might drop a game or two, but if I said the same thing any other year I’d feel alright about it so why change now.  Unfortunately there just isn’t much to go on with the teams not having many common opponents at this point.  In another two weeks we’ll be able to connect the dots a bit better and will revisit.

Boys Foothills
Not much to go on here, but Scotia looks to be strong again this year winning their three games by a combined 116 points.  Based on common opponents, Hudson Falls , Johnstown and South Glens Falls don’t look to be up to the task.  We’ll see how the rest of the league shakes out with Broadalbin-Perth, Glens Falls , Gloversville and Queensbury stacked up behind Scotia .
Boys Independents

Green Tech and Albany Academy don't currently belong to a league and have each only played 1 in-section game, both to Lansingburgh.  Both were wins, which shouldn't be surprising.  I have been referencing individual game point margins, but it is important to note they are much more useful when taken as a whole than individually.  These two teams show no greater proof as GT beat Lansingburgh by 45 more points than AA and then lost to Kingston by 17 while AA beat beat Kingston by 14.  So even though GT has a 14 point edge in Margin of Victory (MOV), AA went 2-0 and GT went 1-1

Boys Suburban

The Suburban has 4 undefeated teams but no one has played more than two league games.  Shaker looks the most impressive so far, but I'm sure Shen will be in the hunt as the season moves on.  In the South Division both Bethlehem and Colonie are 2-0.  There has only been one game between the two divisions so it's hard to even get a read on how they compare within the league.  For any league with 12 teams it's gonig to take longer to see how things line up.  More time will help clear up the questions.

Boys Big 10

We actually have some games to look at here and even had one surprise already.  The Big 10 over the past decade has been CBA's to lose and until proven otherwise that has to be where we stand.  That doesn't mean they run away with it.  Schenectady and Troy have two common opponents and both beat them by the same combined 50 points.  By now we've all seen or heard about LaSalle's 2 point overtime win against Troy, and LaSalle lost to CBA by single digits.  I still have to think Troy expects to be in contention until the end but, at this point, there really is not much separation at all between these four teams.  I'm sure we'll see somebody bow out earlier than later, after all, someone has to lose these games, but there is potential for this to be a four team run to the end and leave the Big 10 four solid chances at a 10th consecutive AA sectional title.

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