Friday, December 28, 2012

Boy's Balance of Power Shifts Away from Big 10

There are two huge scores tonight in boys basketball.  Couple them together with the Green Tech win over Schenectady and it looks like there is a trend away from the Big 10 atop the AA bracket.  Let's sum up what just happened in the in-section games.

Schenectady lost to Green Tech by 31
CBA lost to Bethlehem by 11
LaSalle lost to Colonie by 6

Without playing a game, the current top team in the Big 10 took a blow to their strength of schedule by losses from the three teams directly behind them.  Troy has a 2-1 record against those 3 teams and a positive point differential of 13.  Though at this point we can probably take Troy's loss as a bit of a fluke, Green Tech's MOV is 2 and a half times greater than that after just one game.

CBA's 11 point loss is exactly the same MOV Bethlehem had over Colonie, whose 6 point win over LaSalle is just 2 points different than LaSalle's loss to CBA.  That puts CBA on roughly the same line as Colonie, with Bethlehem a few baskets ahead.  Troy falls somewhere in the middle, though closer to CBA than Bethlehem.  And this doesn't even talk about Shaker who in the 3 games they have with common opponents of Bethlehem have a 70 MOV, while Bethlehem has a 72.  We'll find out what the forecast says in a couple more days, but using just these MOV's, I would put the AA in this order:

1.  Green Tech
2.  Shaker
3.  Bethlehem
4.  Troy
5a.  CBA
5b.  Colonie

This is far from a perfect analysis, but three days ago it looked a lot different.

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