Saturday, February 8, 2014

Boys Class B Wasaren v. Colonial

I've seen a lot of discussion of how much better the Colonial is over the Wasaren and how Hoosick Falls doesn't deserve the #1 seed and shouldn't be the favorite.  My forecast has shown Hoosick Falls to be the most likely to win Sectionals and thus thinks they should be the #1 seed.

My personal opinion hadn't really be formed yet.  I'm fully aware of two things, the Colonial wins Sectionals a lot, and Hoosick Falls doesn't.  But, history is just that and though I use it in my formula to predict the future, I do so in an unbiased fashion.  I do not take into account how specific teams or Leagues have done in the past, rather how teams that are alike have done in the past, using certain criteria and variables.

All of this said, neither perspective really gives any clear definite answer as to who deserves the #1 seed this year, so I thought what I would do is a similar exercise that I did with the AA boys.  I compared common opponents for each of the top 3 Colonial teams, Voorheesville, Cohoes and Mechanicville as well as Hoosick Falls.  I know I left out Broadalbin-Perth and Mekeel Academy but I don't think anyone is arguing either of those should be the #1 seed nor does it help settle the argument of Wasaren v. Colonial if I included them (not to mention it would take forever, and time is not my friend right now). 

In a head to head comparison of common opponents, Hoosick Falls is 1.5 points better than Voorheesville, just over 5 points better than Cohoes and just over 11 points better than Mechanicville.  Voorheesville is 2.5 points better than Cohoes and 3.7 points better than Mechanicville and Cohoes is 3.8 points better than Mechanicville. When you average all of those head to head comps together, Hoosick Falls has the best score and when set to zero, they are an average +4.3 points better than Voorheesville, +7.1 points better than Cohoes and +12.1 better than Mechanicville. 

What this tells me is simply that Hoosick Falls' 14-0 in the Wasaren League and 16-0 in Section 2 is probably worth 3 to 4 points more than Voorheesville's 12-1 Colonial Council record and 15-1 Section 2 record, and yes, Hoosick Falls should be the #1 seed.  Whether they win Sectionals or not is up to them.

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