I just updated the NYSPHSAA enrollment numbers page for 2013-2014 along with the five year averages. Last season I wrote a post in which I referred to Bishop Maginn and their declining enrollment and whether or not they still belonged in class AA. I'm happy to see their enrollment has climbed back up a notch to approximately the 2011-2012 enrollment. An argument can still be made to their class standing, but it's a good sign for Bishop Maginn and Section 2 to see them rebound a bit.
In other housekeeping news, from the Section 2 website, a few schools have changed classifications this year, those being; Cobleskill and Hudson Falls from B to A and Mechanicville, Voorheesville, Stillwater, and Hoosick Falls from C to B.
There was also a minor change to the cutoff numbers for the classes, also from the Section 2 website, AA now includes all schools with enrollments over 910, down from 925. The A schools are now including enrollments 480 to 909, down from 525 to 924. Class B went from 305 - 524 to 280 - 479, class C from 175 - 304 to 170 - 279 and class D went down from any enrollment under 175 to under 170.
These changes reflect an overall trend of reduced enrollment throughout New York State. Section 2 alone has declined in each of the past 6 years (that's all the info I have, it could be more). I haven't asked, but I did the exercise once just to see how one might accomplish setting class standards throughout the State. If you list all the schools in the State (available on the NYSPHSAA website) and line them up in enrollment order, then divide the total number of schools by 5 it gives you roughly the number of schools in each class. All you have to do is draw a line after each fifth. You need to adjust here and there to account for the line being in the middle of multiple schools with the same enrollment, but you get the idea.
As the cutoff numbers for each class decline, it represents a total decline in enrollment over the whole set of schools that make up the New York State Public High Schools, as each fifth has to reduce it's limits to fit in enough schools. It's probably not a great sign for our State, but doesn't matter too much for the model. I find it interesting either way.
Monday, November 18, 2013
Monday, November 4, 2013
The Un-Preseason Preview
We're getting close to that time of year when we will start to read articles about what you can expect this season from your favorite teams. Will CBA rebound to regain AA supremacy? Will Watervliet, Lake George and Argyle be able to repeat as State Champions? Will the Albany girls have enough left to fend off Bethlehem for a second straight year? Truth be told, I haven't a clue.
I sit and await those articles along side you. As a fan, I want to know these answers and I'll read whatever article I can in the weeks prior to the start of the season. Insider information is always interesting and it's something of which I am a consumer, but it's not something that helps what I do.
The models I use don't care how many Seniors you are returning this year, or if you won the State title last year, or if you didn't even win a game. It only cares how you perform this year, and therein lies its beauty. The preseason analysis, while fun to read, doesn't help me very much. It isn't going to make me something I'm not. I won't be delving into my non-existent Rolodex (yes I grew up in the 80's, and no I don't yet own a smartphone) of coaching contacts for inside information.
Last season was my first season writing this blog. I set ambitious goals for myself and, unfortunately, for you. For not meeting them I am regretful, but there are only so many hours in a day and I don't regret the other things that kept me away from fulfilling those goals. Looking back, they were probably unattainable anyway. But, I tried my best and that's all I can ask of anyone.
This year I'll be focusing solely on the games and the models. Every game is fed into the models and therefore every game is important. It will be more of the same from the end of last year. Model changing games will be discussed and weekly brackets around the first of the year will be released. Maybe I'll even break out something new, just for fun. I do have one contact I've been working with, and hopefully that will come to fruition. I'll keep you updated if it does.
In the meantime, read the good work from the big guys. I will be.
I sit and await those articles along side you. As a fan, I want to know these answers and I'll read whatever article I can in the weeks prior to the start of the season. Insider information is always interesting and it's something of which I am a consumer, but it's not something that helps what I do.
The models I use don't care how many Seniors you are returning this year, or if you won the State title last year, or if you didn't even win a game. It only cares how you perform this year, and therein lies its beauty. The preseason analysis, while fun to read, doesn't help me very much. It isn't going to make me something I'm not. I won't be delving into my non-existent Rolodex (yes I grew up in the 80's, and no I don't yet own a smartphone) of coaching contacts for inside information.
Last season was my first season writing this blog. I set ambitious goals for myself and, unfortunately, for you. For not meeting them I am regretful, but there are only so many hours in a day and I don't regret the other things that kept me away from fulfilling those goals. Looking back, they were probably unattainable anyway. But, I tried my best and that's all I can ask of anyone.
This year I'll be focusing solely on the games and the models. Every game is fed into the models and therefore every game is important. It will be more of the same from the end of last year. Model changing games will be discussed and weekly brackets around the first of the year will be released. Maybe I'll even break out something new, just for fun. I do have one contact I've been working with, and hopefully that will come to fruition. I'll keep you updated if it does.
In the meantime, read the good work from the big guys. I will be.
Sunday, June 23, 2013
The Doldrums of Summer
When I was growing up baseball was always my favorite game and the Yankees my favorite team. Baseball was where I started my fascination with statistics and eventually math. My brother and I would play Strat-o-Matic and keep the stats on sheets of paper. I've come a long way. Over the past several years basketball has edged its way up the ladder, long ago overtaking football. But now, with the Yankees hovering near unwatchable, another summer with LeBron James as Champion, and the Celtics entering another decade of despair the summer seems to be moving a bit slower than normal.
After spending an inordinate amount of time on this blog for four months then watching the college basketball tournament and then the NBA playoffs I'm a little beside myself with no basketball. Mini hoops in the pool will have to do.
Monday, March 18, 2013
State Champions
Section 2 had an outstanding year in the State tournament this year with 4 State Champions at 4 different levels in both boys and girls basketball. Congratulations to the Troy girls, Watervliet, Lake George and Argyle boys for their title run through the state. It's an amazing accomplishment and also really hard to do.
I was able to watch the three boys finals thanks to Time Warner Cable. Agyle was so impressive in their win and it was unbelievable the rebounding advantage they had over a much bigger and taller team. It just shows how with hustle and hard work you can still outplay someone who might be bigger faster and stronger. To that point, no one showed more resolve in the Sectionals and State Tournament than Lake George. I picked them to lose to Berne-Knox, who they beat by two, and Hoosic Valley, who they beat by three in sectionals. In the State tournament they beat Moravia in OT after being down by 7 midway through the fourth quarter and beat Pine Plains for the title who started 5 kids 6'4" or taller. Even the announcers on TV were amazed Lake George was even in the game.
After watching the first half, I still wasn't blown away by Lake George's athleticism (other than Joel Wincowski), but it's amazing how well they play together as a unit. I don't mean to knock them and I hope it's not coming off that way, they are incredible athletes, it's just that they play better than athleticism would suggest (again, it's really hard to win a State title and you have to be really good to even get the chance to play for one). It's a credit to each of the players on that team and their coach that they are able to play to a level greater than the sum of their parts. It's something only a few teams can say and they were rewarded with a State title.
The Watervliet game had me worried, especially since I thought they would blow it open in the second half. You have to admire their poise in the final minute of regulation to keep their head, make baskets and play outstanding defense. Also their ability to shrug off losing a 16 point lead and having to go to overtime where they outscored Babylon by 12.
On the whole, I couldn't be more proud of the athletes from these four teams hailing from the section I where I live and was born and raised and from the classification, Class C, to which I belonged. Congratulations again to everyone for an outstanding season!
I was able to watch the three boys finals thanks to Time Warner Cable. Agyle was so impressive in their win and it was unbelievable the rebounding advantage they had over a much bigger and taller team. It just shows how with hustle and hard work you can still outplay someone who might be bigger faster and stronger. To that point, no one showed more resolve in the Sectionals and State Tournament than Lake George. I picked them to lose to Berne-Knox, who they beat by two, and Hoosic Valley, who they beat by three in sectionals. In the State tournament they beat Moravia in OT after being down by 7 midway through the fourth quarter and beat Pine Plains for the title who started 5 kids 6'4" or taller. Even the announcers on TV were amazed Lake George was even in the game.
After watching the first half, I still wasn't blown away by Lake George's athleticism (other than Joel Wincowski), but it's amazing how well they play together as a unit. I don't mean to knock them and I hope it's not coming off that way, they are incredible athletes, it's just that they play better than athleticism would suggest (again, it's really hard to win a State title and you have to be really good to even get the chance to play for one). It's a credit to each of the players on that team and their coach that they are able to play to a level greater than the sum of their parts. It's something only a few teams can say and they were rewarded with a State title.
The Watervliet game had me worried, especially since I thought they would blow it open in the second half. You have to admire their poise in the final minute of regulation to keep their head, make baskets and play outstanding defense. Also their ability to shrug off losing a 16 point lead and having to go to overtime where they outscored Babylon by 12.
On the whole, I couldn't be more proud of the athletes from these four teams hailing from the section I where I live and was born and raised and from the classification, Class C, to which I belonged. Congratulations again to everyone for an outstanding season!
Monday, March 11, 2013
The Long Winding Road of Data Entry
So I've started compiling all of the box scores I have into a spreadsheet so I can list each player's stats on the site and update them annually so you too can see how many points each player has scored over their careers. The problem is, it takes forever. I have completed 3 of the 180 plus section 2 teams' schedules. It's not as bad as it sounds because I'm putting both teams in at once for each box score so by the time I get to Watervliet there won't be any games left to input. Still it's slow going.
As far as the State Tournament goes, we still have four of the five boys teams remaining and all of those that won did so by healthy amounts and the one who didn't kept it to a handful only losing by five. The girls didn't fare as well with only two of the five advancing, but even in defeat they held their own averaging five point losses as Scotia did in the boys. It's also nice they are on television because who wants to drive to Onondaga Community College or Plattsburgh? Not I.
Good luck to those who remain and congrats on a great season for those who don't. Keep watching.
As far as the State Tournament goes, we still have four of the five boys teams remaining and all of those that won did so by healthy amounts and the one who didn't kept it to a handful only losing by five. The girls didn't fare as well with only two of the five advancing, but even in defeat they held their own averaging five point losses as Scotia did in the boys. It's also nice they are on television because who wants to drive to Onondaga Community College or Plattsburgh? Not I.
Good luck to those who remain and congrats on a great season for those who don't. Keep watching.
Tuesday, March 5, 2013
Final Standings and Season Wrap-up
While there are still games to be played in this basketball season, we have now passed the Section 2 playoffs. What this means is that almost all the student athletes that participated during the season are now spectators like the rest of us. It also means we can now fully evaluate the Section 2 season with regards to the Sectional Forecast this blog is mainly based. Before I do that though, a quick word on the two AA finals that happened last night.
In the first game, Albany ended the Suburban's streak of AA championships in impressive style. Unfortunately for Bethlehem it doesn't appear as though they played their best game, but losing to a team as good as Albany should not be viewed negatively. Making the finals of any class in any section is a great accomplishment and also, by the way, really hard to do. After the first game I was wondering if Green Tech could pull off a twin killing in ending the Big 10's AA championship streak as well. While they fell short, there was a bit of vindication for Troy's decision to play in the AA sectionals instead of their rightful A bracket based on enrollment. Early in the season I said how they must feel like they are good enough to win it all or they wouldn't have made that decision and they proved it last night.
Overall the season was a good one and though I didn't accomplish all the goals I had set out at the beginning of the year, I can only be happy with how everything turned out. The forecast did really well and as good as I could expect. If only I could do that well in the NCAA tournament I'd be a lot better off. I look forward to seeing how the girls' model responds to another full season's data and 5 more data points from this year's sectionals. I was a bit worried about even presenting it this year, but considering its flaws due to lack of data I think it can only go up from here. I've tried to be as transparent as possible about the math and its limitations and again, if you haven't, I encourage you to read the methodology page. Without further adieu, the final sectional standings:
In the first game, Albany ended the Suburban's streak of AA championships in impressive style. Unfortunately for Bethlehem it doesn't appear as though they played their best game, but losing to a team as good as Albany should not be viewed negatively. Making the finals of any class in any section is a great accomplishment and also, by the way, really hard to do. After the first game I was wondering if Green Tech could pull off a twin killing in ending the Big 10's AA championship streak as well. While they fell short, there was a bit of vindication for Troy's decision to play in the AA sectionals instead of their rightful A bracket based on enrollment. Early in the season I said how they must feel like they are good enough to win it all or they wouldn't have made that decision and they proved it last night.
Overall the season was a good one and though I didn't accomplish all the goals I had set out at the beginning of the year, I can only be happy with how everything turned out. The forecast did really well and as good as I could expect. If only I could do that well in the NCAA tournament I'd be a lot better off. I look forward to seeing how the girls' model responds to another full season's data and 5 more data points from this year's sectionals. I was a bit worried about even presenting it this year, but considering its flaws due to lack of data I think it can only go up from here. I've tried to be as transparent as possible about the math and its limitations and again, if you haven't, I encourage you to read the methodology page. Without further adieu, the final sectional standings:
Boys
Sectional Forecast Rating 64 9 .877
Sectional Prediction Rating 62 11 .849
Section 2 Committee 60 13 .822
Section 2 Committee 60 13 .822
Common Opponents Analysis 52 21 .712
Girls
Sectional Prediction Rating 55 12 .821
Section 2 Committee 55 12 .821
Common Opponents Analysis 53 14 .791
Sectional Forecast Rating 50 17 .746
As previously stated, there is another element I’m tracking as well and that is for the two regression models. Since they base things on how far a team advances, I wanted to see how well it’s doing when teams crossed those thresholds. In order to advance to the second round, the model would have to give you a score of 0.556. To get to the semifinals, a 0.778 is needed to be achieved. The table below shows how those teams did. For example, there were 17 boys’ teams that had a rating above 0.556, which 16 of them won in the first round. (These ratings were calculated using all the regular season games including those after the brackets were released and none of the sectional games.)
Boys – Sectional Forecast Rating
1st Round 16 1 .941
2nd Round 7 1 .875
3rd Round 1 0 1.000
4th Round 0 0 n/a
Total 24 2 .923
3rd Round 1 0 1.000
4th Round 0 0 n/a
Total 24 2 .923
Boys – Sectional Prediction Rating
1st Round 16 1 .941
2nd Round 7 1 .875
3rd Round 2 0 1.000
4th Round 0 0 n/a
Total 25 2 .926
4th Round 0 0 n/a
Total 25 2 .926
Girls – Sectional Forecast Rating
1st Round 10 3 .769
2nd Round 6 0 1.000
3rd Round 1 0 1.000
4th Round 0 0 n/a
Total 17 3 .850
4th Round 0 0 n/a
Total 17 3 .850
Girls – Sectional Prediction Rating
1st Round 8 2 .800
2nd Round 7 0 1.000
3rd Round 2 0 1.000
4th Round 0 0 n/a
Total 17 2 .895
4th Round 0 0 n/a
Total 17 2 .895
There is one other analysis I’m tracking and that includes the teams the models did not have with necessary rating to advance, but were seeded to advance. So this is a situation where a team had a 0.500 rating, but was seeded 6th for instance. The one caveat here is that, since my seeds aren’t used, I could have teams that played each other even though I have them both advancing. This analysis counts that as both a win and a loss.
Boys – Sectional Forecast Rating
1st Round 12 3 .800
2nd Round 10 2 .833
3rd Round 8 1 .889
4th Round 5 0 1.000
Total 35 6 .854
4th Round 5 0 1.000
Total 35 6 .854
Boys – Sectional Prediction Rating
1st Round 11 5 .688
2nd Round 9 3 .750
3rd Round 7 1 .875
4th Round 4 1 .800
Total 31 10 .756
4th Round 4 1 .800
Total 31 10 .756
Girls – Sectional Forecast Rating
1st Round 5 4 .556
2nd Round 10 4 .714
3rd Round 7 2 .778
4th Round 1 4 .200
Total 23 14 .622
4th Round 1 4 .200
Total 23 14 .622
Girls – Sectional Prediction Rating
1st Round 9 4 .692
2nd Round 5 4 .556
3rd Round 4 4 .500
4th Round 2 3 .200
Total 20 15 .571
Along with some of the items I mentioned in my last post I also anticipate doing a bit more in terms of analyzing how the model and I'll be posting those items when I get them done. I'll also be updating the championship pages and the enrollment page for next year when they come out. Hopefully that will be sooner rather than later.
3rd Round 4 4 .500
4th Round 2 3 .200
Along with some of the items I mentioned in my last post I also anticipate doing a bit more in terms of analyzing how the model and I'll be posting those items when I get them done. I'll also be updating the championship pages and the enrollment page for next year when they come out. Hopefully that will be sooner rather than later.
Monday, March 4, 2013
Sectionals are Over
I just watched James Allen's live coverage on my computer while putting kids to bed and making sure the dog had enough outside time. The Section 2 season is over and though I'll be watching and probably posting some thoughts on the State Tournament, for the most part, my job is done here.
I'll be posting a wrap-up post with all the final standings and thoughts about tonight's games probably tomorrow night. I'm also considering trying this with baseball which will be even more fun because hardly anyone posts baseball box scores anymore. I'll also finish up the leading scorer tally at some point and I'm going to try to put up a list of the the final stats for each player in my database, so stay tuned.
In the meantime, (mostly just before tomorrow's post) I want to thank everyone for reading and commenting and for your overall general interest in something I worked so hard on. Only one night this season did I not feel like dumping scores into the database, but I did it anyway. I thoroughly enjoyed doing this and I hope you enjoyed reading it. Thank you, and I'll see you again tomorrow.
I'll be posting a wrap-up post with all the final standings and thoughts about tonight's games probably tomorrow night. I'm also considering trying this with baseball which will be even more fun because hardly anyone posts baseball box scores anymore. I'll also finish up the leading scorer tally at some point and I'm going to try to put up a list of the the final stats for each player in my database, so stay tuned.
In the meantime, (mostly just before tomorrow's post) I want to thank everyone for reading and commenting and for your overall general interest in something I worked so hard on. Only one night this season did I not feel like dumping scores into the database, but I did it anyway. I thoroughly enjoyed doing this and I hope you enjoyed reading it. Thank you, and I'll see you again tomorrow.
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