Standings Through the Semi-Finals

All the classes are awaiting their finals in both boys' and girls' sectionals so I thought you might like to see how everyone is doing so far.  I'll also give you who each has as the winners in each class.

Boys

Sectional Forecast Rating                      59        9         .868

Sectional Prediction Rating                    57        11        .838
Section 2 Committee                            56        12        .824

Common Opponents Analysis               49        19        .721

Girls

Sectional Prediction Rating                    52        10         .839

Section 2 Committee                             51        11         .823

Common Opponents Analysis               48        14         .774

Sectional Forecast Rating                      48        14         .774

As previously stated, there is another element I’m tracking as well and that is for the two regression models.  Since they base things on how far a team advances, I wanted to see how well it’s doing when teams crossed those thresholds.  In order to advance to the second round, the model would have to give you a score of 0.556.  To get to the semifinals, a 0.778 is needed to be achieved.  The table below shows how those teams did.  For example, there were 17 boys’ teams that had a rating above 0.556, which 16 of them won in the first round. (These ratings were calculated using all the regular season games including those after the brackets were released and none of the sectional games.)

Boys – Sectional Forecast Rating

1^st Round                                             16        1           .941

2^nd Round                                             7          1          .875
3rd Round                                             1          0         1.000

Total                                                     24         2          .923

Boys – Sectional Prediction Rating

1^st Round                                             16        1           .941

2^nd Round                                             7          1          .875

3rd Round                                             2          0         1.000

Total                                                     25         2          .926

Girls – Sectional Forecast Rating

1^st Round                                             10         3          .769

2^nd Round                                             6          0          1.000

3rd Round                                             1          0          1.000

Total                                                     17         3          .850

Boys – Sectional Prediction Rating

1^st Round                                             8          2          .800

2^nd Round                                            7          0          1.000

3rd Round                                             2          0         1.000

Total                                                     17         2          .895

There is one other analysis I’m tracking and that includes the teams the models did not have with necessary rating to advance, but were seeded to advance.  So this is a situation where a team had a 0.500 rating, but was seeded 6^th for instance.  The one caveat here is that, since my seeds aren’t used, I could have teams that played each other even though I have them both advancing.  This analysis counts that as both a win and a loss.

Boys – Sectional Forecast Rating

1^st Round                                             12         3          .800

2^nd Round                                            10         2          .833

3rd Round                                             8          1          .889

Total                                                     30         6          .833

Boys – Sectional Prediction Rating

1^st Round                                             11         5          .688

2^nd Round                                             9          3          .750

3rd Round                                             7          1          .875

Total                                                     27         9          .750

Girls – Sectional Forecast Rating

1^st Round                                              5          4          .556

2^nd Round                                             10        4          .714

3rd Round                                             7          2          .778

Total                                                     22         10        .688

Girls – Sectional Prediction Rating

1^st Round                                              9          4          .692

2^nd Round                                             5          4          .556

3rd Round                                             4          4          .500

Total                                                     18         12        .600


Sectional winners for each method based on who is playing, not original prediction:

Section 2
Boys AA - Troy     Girls AA - Bethlehem (based on first round matchup of second round opponent)
Boys A - Scotia-Glenville     Girls A - Troy
Boys B - Watervliet     Girls B - Watervliet
Boys C - Hoosic Valley     Girls C - Hoosic Valley
Boys D - Argyle     Girls D - Fort Edward

Sectional Forecast Rating

Boys AA - Troy     Girls AA - Bethlehem
Boys A - Scotia-Glenville     Girls A - Holy Names
Boys B - Watervliet     Girls B - Watervliet
Boys C - Lake George     Girls C - Berne-Knox
Boys D - Argyle     Girls D - Fort Edward


Sectional Prediction Rating

Boys AA - Troy     Girls AA - Bethlehem
Boys A - Scotia-Glenville     Girls A - Holy Names
Boys B - Watervliet     Girls B - Watervliet
Boys C - Lake George     Girls C - Hoosic Valley
Boys D - Argyle     Girls D - Fort Edward


Common Opponent Analysis

Boys AA - Green Tech     Girls AA - Albany
Boys A - Scotia-Glenville     Girls A - Troy
Boys B - Watervliet     Girls B - Watervliet
Boys C - Hoosic Valley     Girls C - Hoosic Valley
Boys D - Argyle     Girls D - Fort Edward