Boys Sectional Seeding Analysis and Predictions AA - B

I don't remember exactly how I did this last year, but I'm going to tell you who, according to the forecast will win each game in the tournament.  Tonight I'll do the first round, since I don't yet know the second round matchups.  I'll also throw some of my own opinions in there.  What's the point of having a blog if you don't give your opinions right?

Class AA
First Round
Shen over Bishop Maginn
Schenectady over Saratoga
Shaker over Colonie
Green Tech over Bethlehem
Guilderland over LaSalle
Ballston Spa over CBA
Columbia over Albany
CCHS over Niskayuna

The only upset the forecast is giving us is Ballston Spa over CBA.  I don't think that will happen, but I do recall a player from Ballston Spa predicting they would beat CBA last year in the first round.  They didn't of course, but Ballston Spa is greatly improved this year and CBA is not. It seems bizarre to think that CBA could possibly lose a first round game in Sectionals after all those years dominating the Class, but I don't think it out of the realm of the possible for it to happen.  The model sees each team as less than a first round winner.  Once I have a few more years of this in, if I last that long, I'm going to maintain a database of each Sectional game and compare the ratings to what actually happened and see if I can find some trends that will help sort out games like CBA and Ballston Spa, where neither would be favored to win an opening round game if not for playing each other. 

The only other game the model has as close is Schenectady and Saratoga Springs, which I think could go either way.  I'll give the edge to Schenectady.  The other game I'll be watching is Shaker and Colonie.  I may not mention rivalries often, as Joe has pointed out, mostly because the model doesn't take that into account.  Each regular season rivalry game is a very small portion of a regular season schedule, and since a lot of schools have rivalries, they can cancel each other out.  My alma mater had three that I seem to recall.  But, in a Sectional game, where it's one and done, a rivalry is certainly one to watch.  Shaker did not play well down the stretch and though they beat Colonie by 19 earlier this year, it's still a game I'll be keeping an eye on.

Class A
First Round
Lansingburgh over Burnt Hills
Mohonasen over South Glens Falls

Well, there isn't much going on here in the first round.  Quite honestly, this may be the worst bracket I've ever seen.  Only three teams have a rating above a first round score.  The average score of the bottom 11 teams is 0.189.  Burnt Hills didn't have a very good year, but looking outside the model, they could beat Lansingburgh.  Lansingburgh had an inconsistent year, playing some good teams close and others not so close.  This game will depend more on which Lansingburgh team shows up, than on Burnt Hills.

The other first round game should not be much of one.  Mohonasen nearly just beat Guilderland.  We may eventually see some upsets in this bracket, but unless one of the losers is Troy or Scotia, it won't be Earth shattering.

Class B
Play-In Round
Stillwater over Ravena
Fonda over Tamarac
Hudson over Granville
Corinth over Coxsackie-Athens

This bracket is ridiculous.  Ravena played two teams that Stillwater played and had a better showing against both, so I'm not sure I'm in agreement with the model on that one.  The next two seem clear to me.  Both Fonda and Hudson should be able to take care of business against Tamarac and Granville respectively.  I'm not very high on the Patroon this year in the B bracket so even though the Adirondack doesn't usually do great here, I'll take Corinth over Coxsackie.

First Round (known matchups)
Catskill over Watervliet
Mechanicville over Johnstown
Broadalbin-Perth over Schuylerville
Taconic Hills over Schalmont

Now it's even more ridiculous.  Any of these could be upsets and I don't think it would be overly shocking.  That doesn't mean I won't pick them however.  I'm not sure the last time Watervliet lost in the first round but at one point they were near 20 straight seasons making the Civic Center.  It's hard to discount that expectation in their locker room regardless of how up and down their season was.  The fact that this is an 8 - 9 game says a lot about the bracket.  It could easily be a 4 - 5 matchup in other years.  I'll take Watervliet and hope history backs me up.  Mechanicville has been slightly off the top of the Colonial, but they should have enough to get by Johnstown.  The tough thing about this bracket is, one bad night ends your season, no doubt, and even a good one may not be enough.  M'ville will need a bad night to not get by round 1. 

In recent years BP and Schuylerville have been playing in the regular season and chose not to this year.  Schuylerville is not what they have been in the past 10 years or so and BP has come on strong at the end of the year and I believe they'll move on.  If there were ever a game that cried out for an upset it would be Taconic Hills and Schalmont.  Taconic lost to Ravena by 15 whereas Schalmont beat Ravena by 21.  Now, that was Taconic's second worse game of the year and was in the top 5 or so best games for Schalmont.  Regardless, a 36 point gap is tough to explain away by a bad night v a good night.  Taconic has one of the greatest disparities between what their average winning percentage would be based on their MOV and their actual winning percentage.  In fact, Schalmont's 10-8 record resulted in a +77 MOV, where TH's 14-4 only netted them a +63.  I don't think anyone would argue that the level of competition in the Patroon was better than the Colonial as well.  This game may be close, by I'll take Schalmont.

I wore a tie for 17 hours yesterday and took two plane rides, two cab rides, walked four blocks with a zero wind chill, worked a full day today and about 3 hours tonight on this.  I'm tired.  I'll do the rest tomorrow.

Final Girls Forecast Rankings

Let me preface once again that this formula needs a bit of retooling.  I'm not overly happy with it, but I'm carrying it through for those interested.  For those not, you may stop reading now.  I laid out what the rankings indicate in the boys Final so you may reference those if need be.  I'll be doing some analysis as the night and days progress.

1	Shaker	0.808	AA
2	Albany	0.798	AA
3	Bethlehem	0.685	AA
4	Shenendehowa	0.602	AA
5	Catholic Central	0.509	AA
6	Columbia	0.494	AA
7	Saratoga Springs	0.401	AA
8	Guilderland	0.340	AA
9	Colonie	0.330	AA
10	Niskayuna	0.236	AA
11	Ballston Spa	0.137	AA
12	Bishop Maginn	0.116	AA
13	Schenectady	0.095	AA
1	Holy Names	0.755	A
2	Averill Park	0.742	A
3	Queensbury	0.728	A
4	Glens Falls	0.682	A
5	Albany Leadership	0.647	A
6	Troy	0.624	A
7	Scotia-Glenville	0.611	A
8	Amsterdam	0.381	A
9	Hudson Falls	0.356	A
10	South Glens Falls	0.340	A
11	Lansingburgh	0.217	A
12	Burnt Hills	0.085	A
13	Mohonasen	0.059	A
14	Gloversville	(0.060)	A
1	Tamarac	0.760	B
2	Watervliet	0.715	B
3	Hudson	0.686	B
4	Greenville	0.640	B
5	Fonda-Fultonville	0.578	B
6	Johnstown	0.542	B
7	Hoosick Falls	0.514	B
8	Emma Willard	0.510	B
9	Schalmont	0.508	B
10	Corinth	0.503	B
11	Ichabod Crane	0.500	B
12	Cohoes	0.446	B
13	Mechanicville	0.404	B
14	Stillwater	0.404	B
15	Catskill	0.392	B
16	Voorheesville	0.391	B
17	Bishop Gibbons	0.378	B
18	Chatham	0.369	B
19	Ravena	0.316	B
20	Taconic Hills	0.307	B
21	Coxsackie-Athens	0.300	B
22	Broadalbin-Perth	0.175	B
23	Albany Academy	0.167	B
24	Cobleskill	0.139	B
25	Cairo-Durham	0.108	B
26	Schuylerville	0.097	B
27	Granville	(0.031)	B
1	Maple Hill	0.793	C
2	Waterford	0.767	C
3	Lake George	0.711	C
4	Middleburgh	0.622	C
5	Hoosic Valley	0.618	C
6	Fort Plain	0.585	C
7	Canajoharie	0.579	C
8	Greenwich	0.563	C
9	Galway	0.486	C
10	Mayfield	0.446	C
11	Berne-Knox	0.420	C
12	Mekeel Academy	0.369	C
13	Schoharie	0.358	C
14	Cambridge	0.339	C
15	Saratoga Catholic	0.327	C
16	Duanesburg	0.297	C
17	Berlin	0.203	C
18	Whitehall	0.127	C
19	Rensselaer	0.069	C
20	Hadley-Luzerne	0.062	C
1	Fort Edward	0.778	D
2	Fort Ann	0.728	D
3	Heatly	0.674	D
4	Warrensburg	0.579	D
5	Germantown	0.560	D
6	North Warren	0.450	D
7	Argyle	0.409	D
8	Hartford	0.408	D
9	Northville	0.373	D
10	New Lebanon	0.360	D
11	Doane Stuart	0.263	D
12	Hawthorne Valley	0.252	D
13	Bolton	0.238	D
14	St. Johnsville	0.139	D
15	Sharon Springs	0.120	D
16	Loudonville Christian	0.112	D
17	Salem	(0.006)	D

Final Boys Forecast Rankings

Since the brackets are already out and it takes more time to get them into that order I thought I would just list everyone top to bottom along with their scores.  I have to get all the Girls games in from yesterday and run the model and once I post that, I'll put some thoughts together on how the Committee did and some things I'll be watching for once the games begin.  Just as a reminder, a ranking of 1.000 would be Championship level, 0.889 Finals level, 0.778 Semi-Finals, 0.667 Contender (by my own judgement), 0.556 Quarter-Final level. 

1	Catholic Central	0.749	AA
2	Guilderland	0.733	AA
3	Columbia	0.569	AA
4	Green Tech	0.559	AA
5	Shenendehowa	0.546	AA
6	Ballston Spa	0.518	AA
7	Shaker	0.472	AA
8	CBA	0.465	AA
9	Schenectady	0.413	AA
10	Saratoga Springs	0.374	AA
11	Bethlehem	0.255	AA
12	Bishop Maginn	0.247	AA
13	Albany	0.234	AA
14	Niskayuna	0.208	AA
15	Colonie	0.165	AA
16	LaSalle	0.087	AA
1	Scotia-Glenville	0.909	A
2	Troy	0.807	A
3	Gloversville	0.666	A
4	Averill Park	0.486	A
5	Amsterdam	0.398	A
6	Queensbury	0.292	A
7	Glens Falls	0.267	A
8	Hudson Falls	0.203	A
9	Mohonasen	0.200	A
10	Lansingburgh	0.180	A
11	Burnt Hills	0.135	A
12	Cobleskill	(0.020)	A
13	South Glens Falls	(0.028)	A
14	Bishop Gibbons	(0.035)	A
1	Hoosick Falls	0.895	B
2	Voorheesville	0.816	B
3	Mekeel Academy	0.785	B
4	Cohoes	0.775	B
5	Mechanicville	0.661	B
6	Broadalbin-Perth	0.655	B
7	Catskill	0.624	B
8	Taconic Hills	0.609	B
9	Watervliet	0.569	B
10	Schalmont	0.483	B
11	Corinth	0.437	B
12	Schuylerville	0.423	B
13	Johnstown	0.404	B
14	Stillwater	0.397	B
15	Coxsackie-Athens	0.380	B
16	Hudson	0.369	B
17	Fonda-Fultonville	0.343	B
18	Ravena	0.316	B
19	Cairo-Durham	0.259	B
20	Ichabod Crane	0.181	B
21	Tamarac	0.088	B
22	Granville	0.067	B
23	Greenville	0.027	B
24	Chatham	0.003	B
1	Lake George	0.814	C
2	Hoosic Valley	0.757	C
3	Saratoga Catholic	0.720	C
4	Waterford	0.619	C
5	Greenwich	0.603	C
6	Duanesburg	0.598	C
7	Berlin	0.559	C
8	Rensselaer	0.557	C
9	Fort Plain	0.508	C
10	Canajoharie	0.491	C
11	Berne-Knox	0.488	C
12	Maple Hill	0.487	C
13	Hadley-Luzerne	0.393	C
14	Schoharie	0.361	C
15	Middleburgh	0.344	C
16	Mayfield	0.249	C
17	Whitehall	0.074	C
18	Cambridge	0.006	C
19	Galway	(0.113)	C
1	Argyle	0.845	D
2	Germantown	0.678	D
3	Hartford	0.608	D
4	Fort Ann	0.594	D
5	North Warren	0.535	D
6	Heatly	0.373	D
7	St. Johnsville	0.352	D
8	Loudonville Christian	0.348	D
9	Salem	0.302	D
10	Northville	0.285	D
11	Fort Edward	0.202	D
12	Doane Stuart	0.080	D
13	Warrensburg	0.001	D
14	Sharon Springs	(0.035)	D
15	New Lebanon	(0.052)	D
16	Bolton	(0.053)	D
17	Hawthorne Valley	(0.081)	D

Girls Class C HV v. Field

So I'm attempting to do the girls class C  the same way I did the boys B's last night.  I had to include five teams this time as I thought it was necessary and it turns out to be cleaner as there are five different classes that are in play.  I chose the best of each league just to be fair to all and get a good comparison between the leagues involved.  They are Hoosic Valley from the Wasaren, Maple Hill from the Patroon, Lake George from the Adirondack, Waterford from the CHVL and Fort Plain from the WAC.  There could be some argument to using Fort Plain.  My reasoning is this, though tied with Canjo for the best record, they beat them twice head to head.  They also beat Berne-Knox by 7.  Berne-Knox split with Middleburgh, who has the best record on the other side of the WAC. 

The strongest argument would be Middleburgh.  They and Fort Plain both split with Mayfield by roughly the same margin, however Middleburgh beat Canjo by 24 which is 15 better than Fort Plain could do with two tries.  I chose Fort Plain, mostly because of a lovely email I received regarding them and my methods.

Anyway, I'm not done yet, because I'm using five teams instead of four and because the C schools don't have nearly as many common opponent opportunities since they are located at greater distances apart from each other.  Either way, I finished HV's analysis vs the other four teams I mentioned, and thought I'd put it out there for your consumption.

Of the four teams, Maple Hill was the closest having a head to head and a few other common opponents averaged together the margin went down to 7.0.  Lake George was second with 27.13, Fort Plain third with 27.14 and Waterford fourth at 33.13. 

Just to round it out, I also did HV v Greenwich, who would move ahead of Maple Hill slightly at 5.2.  I'll keep working on the rest of the analysis when I have more time as it's now past midnight, but if you just used the HV analysis the order would look like this.

1.  Hoosic Valley
2.  Greenwich
3.  Maple Hill
4a.  Middleburgh
4b.  Lake George
4c.  Fort Plain
7.  Waterford

Boys Class B Wasaren v. Colonial

I've seen a lot of discussion of how much better the Colonial is over the Wasaren and how Hoosick Falls doesn't deserve the #1 seed and shouldn't be the favorite.  My forecast has shown Hoosick Falls to be the most likely to win Sectionals and thus thinks they should be the #1 seed.

My personal opinion hadn't really be formed yet.  I'm fully aware of two things, the Colonial wins Sectionals a lot, and Hoosick Falls doesn't.  But, history is just that and though I use it in my formula to predict the future, I do so in an unbiased fashion.  I do not take into account how specific teams or Leagues have done in the past, rather how teams that are alike have done in the past, using certain criteria and variables.

All of this said, neither perspective really gives any clear definite answer as to who deserves the #1 seed this year, so I thought what I would do is a similar exercise that I did with the AA boys.  I compared common opponents for each of the top 3 Colonial teams, Voorheesville, Cohoes and Mechanicville as well as Hoosick Falls.  I know I left out Broadalbin-Perth and Mekeel Academy but I don't think anyone is arguing either of those should be the #1 seed nor does it help settle the argument of Wasaren v. Colonial if I included them (not to mention it would take forever, and time is not my friend right now). 

In a head to head comparison of common opponents, Hoosick Falls is 1.5 points better than Voorheesville, just over 5 points better than Cohoes and just over 11 points better than Mechanicville.  Voorheesville is 2.5 points better than Cohoes and 3.7 points better than Mechanicville and Cohoes is 3.8 points better than Mechanicville. When you average all of those head to head comps together, Hoosick Falls has the best score and when set to zero, they are an average +4.3 points better than Voorheesville, +7.1 points better than Cohoes and +12.1 better than Mechanicville. 

What this tells me is simply that Hoosick Falls' 14-0 in the Wasaren League and 16-0 in Section 2 is probably worth 3 to 4 points more than Voorheesville's 12-1 Colonial Council record and 15-1 Section 2 record, and yes, Hoosick Falls should be the #1 seed.  Whether they win Sectionals or not is up to them.

Counting the Days

I haven't actually looked, but I think we're about a week away from the end of the regular season.  Usually at this late of a date, there aren't too many games that change our perceptions too much, nor too many that change the Forecasts a great deal.  Though I haven't entered all the games tonight into the database yet, I think there are at least two that have the chance to have done just that.

The first, and probably the more surprising was the Voorheesville girls beating Watervliet by 2.  Voorheesville certainly isn't a bad team.  They only have one loss this year that I would call a blow out, but they did lose to Vliet by 11 earlier in the year and Watervliet, aside from their loss to Holy Names, has been pretty dominant the whole season.  I actually thought they would beat Holy Names.  Now, in each of these losses, one of their five leading scorers (outside Teagan Clough they have four other scorers with nearly identical points) didn't score a point.  I don't know the cause of that, whether it was good defense, poor individual performance or injury but this loss has to raise some concerns if you're a fan of Watervliet.

It by no means says they can't win Sectionals, but at this point, I think you have to give Tamarac the nod for the #1 seed.

On the boys side there was an upset not nearly as shocking, given the recent strong performances of the team that won and the overall lack of dominance of the team that lost.  I'm referring to Rensselaer's win over Taconic Hills.  I've been watching Rensselaer all season as a darkhorse in the class C bracket and mentioned last week how Taconic Hills' MOV is less than stellar despite a pretty good record.  What this means for the future is that Mechanicville should move into the fifth spot, where they belong, and the Patroon has little chance for a Sectional title in the B bracket.  For Rensselaer, it just confirms what I've suspected all along, they tend to finish strong and are a threat for perhaps an upset or two, depending on seeding, come Sectionals.

On a different track, I wanted to point out there was discussion in the comments section on the Girls' Forecast #3 that I encourage you to read.  I make every effort to be as transparent as possible with regards to the models I use for this blog and whatever shortcomings they may have.  For the boys there are individual cases, like Shen, where they are always going to be undervalued due to their enrollment comparative to those teams they play (and how that compares to the rest of the section).  That should sort itself out once I'm able to run a model for each class (hoping next season for that, if I can get them set up in time). 

The girls forecast contains a lot less data, but has what may be a fatal flaw that I've detailed in those comments.  I don't want to waste space typing it again, but it's something I need to re-evaluate in the offseason and see if there aren't some other options I can use to make the model more useful.  I'll post the final seedings prior to the real brackets regardless, given I have the time but definitely before the first games, for those of you who are still interested.  If I can get some time this week, I want to do something a little different for the girls bracket so cross your fingers I can get a few hours to get it done.

Boys Sectional Forecast #5 thru 1/31/14

Not a ton of games this week, but some interesting things happened.  CCHS finally lost, Albany Academy beat Guilderland and Schuylerville petitioned to join the Foothills next year and leave the Wasaren.  I have some further thoughts on that last one I'll be writing about in a couple days.  In the meantime, let's see how the forecast is doing.

Class AA
(1) Guilderland      13-2  no change
(16) La Salle     4-11  no change
(8) CBA     10-4 no change
(9) Schenectady     10-6  down 2
(5) Shaker     11-4  up 2
(12) Albany     6-8  up 1
(4) Green Tech     3-1  up 1
(13) Bishop Maginn   4-11 up 1
(3) Columbia     9-5  no change
(14) Niskayuna     4-11 down 3
(6) Shenendehowa     12-2 up down 2
(11) Bethlehem    5-8  up 1
(7) Ballston Spa     9-6  down 1
(10) Saratoga Springs     9-6  no change
(2) Catholic Central     12-1  no change
(15) Colonie     4-11  no change

Despite Guilerland and CCHS both losing a game this week, they both maintained their spots in the bracket.  It's not entirely surprising since both are the only two in the bracket that have rankings above 0.667.  I remain disappointed that Green Tech doesn't play more in-section games, but since there is nothing I can do about it I have to assume the model knows what it's doing. 

Green Tech does have more losses this year than they did all of last season and their MOV isn't nearly as impressive.  Given that CBA is having a down year and Troy lost their two biggest players from last year's team, it was reasonable to believe GT would jump up to the top spot since they were in the final last year.  But, maybe that hasn't happened and Guilderland and CCHS really are more likely to win the whole thing.  There isn't much I can do about the Shen problem, other than point it out, regardless this year's bracket looks to be a very competitive one.  There appear to be several teams who could knock off any of the top 4 (Guilerland, Shen, CCHS and GT) so maybe we get a surprise or even two in the final.

Class A
(1) Scotia-Glenville     14-0  no change
(16) Bye
(8) Glens Falls     4-11  no change
(9) Lansingburgh     4-10  up 1
(5) Amsterdam     5-10  no change
(12) South Glens Falls     2-13  no change
(4) Averill Park     8-7  no change
(13) Bishop Gibbons     0-14  no change
(3) Gloversville     11-3 no change
(14) Cobleskill     0-13  no change
(6) Queensbury     6-8  no change
(11) Burnt Hills     1-13  no change
(7) Hudson Falls    5-10  no change
(10) Mohonasen     2-13  down 1
(2) Troy     11-2  no change
(15) Bye

Troy had a nice bounce back week beating CCHS last night.  It remains to be seen if they are going to be able to compete with Scotia in this bracket but as things go, they seem to be the only team that has a legitimate shot.  Gloversville has a nice rating and will more than likely be in the semifinal, but they've already proven they can't keep up with Scotia.  Beyond that, Averill Park and Amsterdam would be a nice story making the semis, but I don't see how they can compete for the title.

Class B
(1) Hoosick Falls     14-0  no change
(16) Ravena     7-7  down 1
(8) Broadalbin-Perth     9-5  down 1
(9) Watervliet     9-4  down 1
(5) Taconic Hills     12-3 up 1
(12) Schuylerville     10-6  up 2
(4) Cohoes     13-2 no change
(13) Schalmont    7-6  down 2
(3) Mekeel Academy     9-1 no change
(14) Stillwater     8-8  down 1
(6) Mechanicville    11-4  down 1
(11) Coxsackie-Athens     9-5  down 2
(7) Catskill    10-3  up 3
(10) Johnstown     9-6 up 2
(2) Voorheesville     13-1  no change
(15) Corinth     7-7  up 1

Not rated: Hudson, Fonda-Fultonville, Cairo-Durham, Ichabod Crane, Tamarac, Granville, Chatham, Greenville

Regardless of order I believe the model has the top 4 contenders correct, though I would have Mechanicville fifth over Taconic Hills.  Speaking of Taconic Hills, despite racking up an impressive 12-3 record, their average MOV is 3.7.  Not overly inspiring.  The Colonial Council is just really good this year.  Even though Voorheesville, Cohoes and Mechanicville have only lost a combined 7 games, they have each played multiple games within a handful of points, and several were to teams you wouldn't consider top of the class.

I will point out, that can show also show that the opposite is true.  Much like Taconic Hills winning several games by less than 5 points, it may just show each of the three, Voorheesville, Cohoes and Mechanicville have flaws (ones they were able to overcome).  We don't know what the brackets are going to look like yet, but there is a scenario where only one of these teams makes the semis and yet another where all three do (and perhaps a fourth).  I do believe it's an up year for the Colonial, but there are three other good teams (Hoosick Falls, Mekeel Academy and the sleeper Broadalbin-Perth) that could prove that theory wrong. 

Class C
(1) Lake George     13-1  no change
(16) Mayfield     6-8  down 1
(8) Fort Plain     9-4  no change
(9) Maple Hill     9-6  up 1
(5) Waterford     12-4  up 2
(12) Canajoharie     9-6  down 1
(4) Duanesburg     13-3  no change
(13) Hadley-Luzerne     8-6  no change
(3) Saratoga Catholic    14-2  no change
(14) Schoharie     5-8  no change
(6) Greenwich     10-5 no change
(11) Berne-Knox     8-6  up 1
(7) Berlin     9-4  down 2
(10) Rensselaer     9-6  down 1
(2) Hoosic Valley     14-1  no change
(15) Middleburgh     5-7  up 1

Not rated:  Whitehall, Cambridge, Galway

I'm good with the top 3 in that order.  I would put Greenwich fourth.  Early in the year I said I thought Rensselaer could be a dark-horse and though it didn't look very good in the early going, they have rebounded well similar to last year.  They are not a team I would want to play as a upper seed.  The CHVL has actually surprised me a bit this year performing better against non-league opponents than I'm used to.  It doesn't mean I think Waterford or Berlin (who is playing Greenwich on Wednesday) have a legit shot but you may be surprised by their performance in a couple weeks.  I still see this as a Lake George, Hoosic Valley rematch for the title.

Class D
(1) Argyle     12-2 no change
(16) Bolton     0-14  down 2
(8) St. Johnsville    5-8  no change
(9) Northville     5-10  no change
(5) North Warren     9-5  no change
(12) Doane Stuart     3-12  no change
(4) Fort Ann     9-4  no change
(13) Warrensburg     2-11  no change
(3) Hartford     9-4  no change
(14) Sharon Springs     0-11  up 1
(6) Loudonville Christian      8-6  up 1
(11) Salem     5-9  down 1
(7) Heatly     7-9  down 1
(10) Fort Edward     4-9  up 1
(2) Germantown     11-2  no change
(15) New Lebanon     0-9  up 1

Not rated:  Hawthorne Valley

Argyle has widened the gap on Germantown, but taking a loss to a Colonial B by 10 points will probably help more than hurt Germantown's chances in Sectionals.  We'll see just how much.