Thursday, November 22, 2012

Early Signs of a Tough Season

As with anything it's difficult to take one data point, in this case a game, as meaning too much especially the first games of the season.  There are however, some early signs that Tamarac will probably have a tough year.  For starters, in their first game of the season they held a 118 enrollment edge on Berne-Knox which would historically result in Tamarac winning 56.7% of the time.  Losing this type of game isn't in itself reason to cause alarm, but losing by 36 points is. 

Over the last 3 seasons only three teams have finished the season with an average margin of loss greater than 30. Those three teams had a combined record of 1 win and 44 losses against Section 2 teams not including themselves. My formula would give them an expected win percentage of .000 if that trend continued (which is probably unlikely), but if you use the 1-44 mark, that would be a .022.  Either way that averages out to zero wins for an 18 game season.

I'm still waiting to see how they fared in the Heatly game which will give us a bit more information and will more than likely change everything I just wrote about.  The enrollment edge is 272 for Tamarac in that one and gives them a 59.4% likelihood.  Regardless, the two wins by Berne-Knox and Rensselaer were impressive and the opposite of the above can be said for them.  It will be interesting to see how that game turned out and what clues it can give us for the rest of their seasons.

One game doesn't make a season, and I can't even say I know whether or not everyone on these teams played, but it can give you a little insight as to how the season will progress. 

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