WOW

It's taken me a bit to actually be able to write something after digesting the scores from tonight.  First of all, one of the things I hate about how they rank the AA teams is that there is no true #1.  I'm not sure why we need to appease both leagues by giving each a #1, but it's mostly pointless.  The better league is going to end up with more teams in the end anyway so why not just do it right to begin with so we can get the better match-ups at the end of the tournament.

Now that I've gotten that out of the way, I don't recall ever seeing a #1 seed lose in the first round of a Section 2 sectional tournament, regardless of how AA's are seeded.  I'm sure it's happened, but I really don't remember it if it did.  CCHS losing in the first round to Niskayuna is beyond words stunning.  I have stated I thought their youth and inexperience could play a factor in Sectionals but I never thought they would lose in the first round.  The other stunning thing about the AA bracket is that only one Big 10 team remains.  I suppose it's not shocking that team is CBA, but they didn't light the world on fire tonight either.  Six of the 8 remaining teams are from the Suburban with the other being Green Tech. 

Last year I thought the Big 10's dominance was going to end at the hands of Green Tech.  I was wrong, but unless CBA puts together a run worthy of their name the streak may finally come to an end.

I don't know if anyone else saw this score or not, but the Post Star is reporting that Cohoes lost to Hudson 58-57.  Now, the B bracket is insanely deep so I'm not surprised to see an upset, I'm actually slightly shocked there wasn't any more, but Cohoes beat Hudson by 33 earlier this year.  I'm not a huge fan of the Patroon this year in the B's, but they still have two teams left and at this point, I could see any one of the remaining teams winning in the second round. 

This doesn't look to be a great year for the model so far, but as I've said the first round is not kind to me.  I have a built in disadvantage of any upsets I have playing on the road and not a neutral floor.  Where the model should make up some ground is in the later rounds.  At least I hope.  I'll update the records once the first round is over. 

Considering I was speechless prior to writing this, I'm rather impressed I got that many words out.

Boys Sectional Seeding Analysis and Predictions C - D

Feeling a bit more rested now, finally.  Below is the first round breakdown for C and D.

Class C
First Round
Hoosic Valley over Waterford
Berlin over Canajoharie
Waterford over Schoharie
Greenwich over Fort Plain
Saratoga Catholic over Hadley-Luzerne
Rensselaer over Berne-Knox
Duanesburg over Maple Hill
Lake George over Middleburgh

The top four seeds shouldn't have any trouble in class C, beyond them however, many things are possible.  The only upset the model picked is Berlin over Canajoharie.  I actually disagree with that one, I see Canajoharie facing off with Hoosic Valley in a rematch of the last year's semifinal game.  Canajoharie handled Duanesburg pretty well in their only meeting and Duanesburg, though 2-0 vs Waterford, managed 3 and 2 point victories.  Waterford split with Berlin losing by 24 early in the year, but rebounding to beat them by 10 later in the season.  The head to head comps between Waterford and Berlin suggest that the second score, with Waterford winning by 10, is the more likely of the two to be accurate.  If that's the case, even with an inflated win by Canjo over Duanesburg, Canjo looks better.

The other CHVL - WAC matchup could also be up for grabs between Schoharie and Waterford.  Duanesburg played both teams twice.  They were +5 vs Waterford and -7 vs. Schoharie.  I see this as a pick em game, but I'll give the edge to the home team  and say Waterford hangs on.  In another WAC pick em game, Duanesburg is the higher seed against Maple Hill, but I feel Maple Hill got a bit of a raw deal on their seed.  They split with Rensselaer, losing only by six in their final meeting and yet they are 4 spots lower in the seeding.  MH also beat Berne-Knox by 18 who split with Duanesburg and had a -5 point margin for the two games.  The reason I call it a pick em is that Berne-Knox also played and lost to Taconic Hills, but by only 3.  MH lost to TH twice by a combined 11.  I don't know which score is more accurate of telling what's going to happen when MH meets Duanesburg, but it gives pause, and along with MH playing in Duanesburg makes me think it could easily go either way.  That said, I'll take Maple Hill for the upset. 

The final first round game is between, two other WAC - Patroon teams with Rensselaer facing Berne-Knox.  Given how much of a roll Rensselaer is on, and being at home, and the previous scores already discussed I'll take Rensselaer.  The reason I think it might be closer than scores might indicate is the time off for Rensselaer could lead to some cooling off.  I don't think that will happen, but you never know what can happen when you get the chance to sit around not playing anybody.

Class D
First Round
Loudonville Christian over Northville
St. Johnsville over Fort Edward
Heatly over Salem

Heatly v Salem will probably be a good game as neither team was able to separate themselves from being average.  With the exception of Argyle and Lake George, the competition in the Adirondack and CHVL isn't too different and both racked up records just under 0.500.  They don't have any common opponents however, Loudonville Christian beat Bolton by 14 and Salem beat them by 15.  LC and Heatly played twice and averaged a 1 point margin.  Heatly played a much tougher non-league schedule but had zero wins to show for it.  Honestly, I have no idea how this is going to turn out.  I'll go with the home team.

Loudonville Christian played Galway and won by 20, while Northville played and beat Galway three times averaging just under a 19 point margin.  This too could be a toss-up, but I'll again take the home team due to the large distance Northville needs to travel. 

Finally, St. Johnsville and Fort Edward could also be a tight game.  North Warren beat Northville and Fort Edward by 13 and 14 respectively.  Northville lost to SJ twice by an average of 6 points.  Of the three opening round games in class D, this has the largest certainty and even this I wouldn't write in stone.  Again, in class D these schools are so far apart, though SJ and FE are less so than the other two, I find it to be just as important to be the home team than to actually be better.  Riding on a bus for an hour or two just isn't a good way to prepare to play basketball. That said, I'll take St. Johnsville, but I bet at least one of those home teams loses.

Quick update on the B first round.  The forecast went 3-1, the Committee went 4-0.

Boys Sectional Seeding Analysis and Predictions AA - B

I don't remember exactly how I did this last year, but I'm going to tell you who, according to the forecast will win each game in the tournament.  Tonight I'll do the first round, since I don't yet know the second round matchups.  I'll also throw some of my own opinions in there.  What's the point of having a blog if you don't give your opinions right?

Class AA
First Round
Shen over Bishop Maginn
Schenectady over Saratoga
Shaker over Colonie
Green Tech over Bethlehem
Guilderland over LaSalle
Ballston Spa over CBA
Columbia over Albany
CCHS over Niskayuna

The only upset the forecast is giving us is Ballston Spa over CBA.  I don't think that will happen, but I do recall a player from Ballston Spa predicting they would beat CBA last year in the first round.  They didn't of course, but Ballston Spa is greatly improved this year and CBA is not. It seems bizarre to think that CBA could possibly lose a first round game in Sectionals after all those years dominating the Class, but I don't think it out of the realm of the possible for it to happen.  The model sees each team as less than a first round winner.  Once I have a few more years of this in, if I last that long, I'm going to maintain a database of each Sectional game and compare the ratings to what actually happened and see if I can find some trends that will help sort out games like CBA and Ballston Spa, where neither would be favored to win an opening round game if not for playing each other. 

The only other game the model has as close is Schenectady and Saratoga Springs, which I think could go either way.  I'll give the edge to Schenectady.  The other game I'll be watching is Shaker and Colonie.  I may not mention rivalries often, as Joe has pointed out, mostly because the model doesn't take that into account.  Each regular season rivalry game is a very small portion of a regular season schedule, and since a lot of schools have rivalries, they can cancel each other out.  My alma mater had three that I seem to recall.  But, in a Sectional game, where it's one and done, a rivalry is certainly one to watch.  Shaker did not play well down the stretch and though they beat Colonie by 19 earlier this year, it's still a game I'll be keeping an eye on.

Class A
First Round
Lansingburgh over Burnt Hills
Mohonasen over South Glens Falls

Well, there isn't much going on here in the first round.  Quite honestly, this may be the worst bracket I've ever seen.  Only three teams have a rating above a first round score.  The average score of the bottom 11 teams is 0.189.  Burnt Hills didn't have a very good year, but looking outside the model, they could beat Lansingburgh.  Lansingburgh had an inconsistent year, playing some good teams close and others not so close.  This game will depend more on which Lansingburgh team shows up, than on Burnt Hills.

The other first round game should not be much of one.  Mohonasen nearly just beat Guilderland.  We may eventually see some upsets in this bracket, but unless one of the losers is Troy or Scotia, it won't be Earth shattering.

Class B
Play-In Round
Stillwater over Ravena
Fonda over Tamarac
Hudson over Granville
Corinth over Coxsackie-Athens

This bracket is ridiculous.  Ravena played two teams that Stillwater played and had a better showing against both, so I'm not sure I'm in agreement with the model on that one.  The next two seem clear to me.  Both Fonda and Hudson should be able to take care of business against Tamarac and Granville respectively.  I'm not very high on the Patroon this year in the B bracket so even though the Adirondack doesn't usually do great here, I'll take Corinth over Coxsackie.

First Round (known matchups)
Catskill over Watervliet
Mechanicville over Johnstown
Broadalbin-Perth over Schuylerville
Taconic Hills over Schalmont

Now it's even more ridiculous.  Any of these could be upsets and I don't think it would be overly shocking.  That doesn't mean I won't pick them however.  I'm not sure the last time Watervliet lost in the first round but at one point they were near 20 straight seasons making the Civic Center.  It's hard to discount that expectation in their locker room regardless of how up and down their season was.  The fact that this is an 8 - 9 game says a lot about the bracket.  It could easily be a 4 - 5 matchup in other years.  I'll take Watervliet and hope history backs me up.  Mechanicville has been slightly off the top of the Colonial, but they should have enough to get by Johnstown.  The tough thing about this bracket is, one bad night ends your season, no doubt, and even a good one may not be enough.  M'ville will need a bad night to not get by round 1. 

In recent years BP and Schuylerville have been playing in the regular season and chose not to this year.  Schuylerville is not what they have been in the past 10 years or so and BP has come on strong at the end of the year and I believe they'll move on.  If there were ever a game that cried out for an upset it would be Taconic Hills and Schalmont.  Taconic lost to Ravena by 15 whereas Schalmont beat Ravena by 21.  Now, that was Taconic's second worse game of the year and was in the top 5 or so best games for Schalmont.  Regardless, a 36 point gap is tough to explain away by a bad night v a good night.  Taconic has one of the greatest disparities between what their average winning percentage would be based on their MOV and their actual winning percentage.  In fact, Schalmont's 10-8 record resulted in a +77 MOV, where TH's 14-4 only netted them a +63.  I don't think anyone would argue that the level of competition in the Patroon was better than the Colonial as well.  This game may be close, by I'll take Schalmont.

I wore a tie for 17 hours yesterday and took two plane rides, two cab rides, walked four blocks with a zero wind chill, worked a full day today and about 3 hours tonight on this.  I'm tired.  I'll do the rest tomorrow.

Final Girls Forecast Rankings

Let me preface once again that this formula needs a bit of retooling.  I'm not overly happy with it, but I'm carrying it through for those interested.  For those not, you may stop reading now.  I laid out what the rankings indicate in the boys Final so you may reference those if need be.  I'll be doing some analysis as the night and days progress.

1	Shaker	0.808	AA
2	Albany	0.798	AA
3	Bethlehem	0.685	AA
4	Shenendehowa	0.602	AA
5	Catholic Central	0.509	AA
6	Columbia	0.494	AA
7	Saratoga Springs	0.401	AA
8	Guilderland	0.340	AA
9	Colonie	0.330	AA
10	Niskayuna	0.236	AA
11	Ballston Spa	0.137	AA
12	Bishop Maginn	0.116	AA
13	Schenectady	0.095	AA
1	Holy Names	0.755	A
2	Averill Park	0.742	A
3	Queensbury	0.728	A
4	Glens Falls	0.682	A
5	Albany Leadership	0.647	A
6	Troy	0.624	A
7	Scotia-Glenville	0.611	A
8	Amsterdam	0.381	A
9	Hudson Falls	0.356	A
10	South Glens Falls	0.340	A
11	Lansingburgh	0.217	A
12	Burnt Hills	0.085	A
13	Mohonasen	0.059	A
14	Gloversville	(0.060)	A
1	Tamarac	0.760	B
2	Watervliet	0.715	B
3	Hudson	0.686	B
4	Greenville	0.640	B
5	Fonda-Fultonville	0.578	B
6	Johnstown	0.542	B
7	Hoosick Falls	0.514	B
8	Emma Willard	0.510	B
9	Schalmont	0.508	B
10	Corinth	0.503	B
11	Ichabod Crane	0.500	B
12	Cohoes	0.446	B
13	Mechanicville	0.404	B
14	Stillwater	0.404	B
15	Catskill	0.392	B
16	Voorheesville	0.391	B
17	Bishop Gibbons	0.378	B
18	Chatham	0.369	B
19	Ravena	0.316	B
20	Taconic Hills	0.307	B
21	Coxsackie-Athens	0.300	B
22	Broadalbin-Perth	0.175	B
23	Albany Academy	0.167	B
24	Cobleskill	0.139	B
25	Cairo-Durham	0.108	B
26	Schuylerville	0.097	B
27	Granville	(0.031)	B
1	Maple Hill	0.793	C
2	Waterford	0.767	C
3	Lake George	0.711	C
4	Middleburgh	0.622	C
5	Hoosic Valley	0.618	C
6	Fort Plain	0.585	C
7	Canajoharie	0.579	C
8	Greenwich	0.563	C
9	Galway	0.486	C
10	Mayfield	0.446	C
11	Berne-Knox	0.420	C
12	Mekeel Academy	0.369	C
13	Schoharie	0.358	C
14	Cambridge	0.339	C
15	Saratoga Catholic	0.327	C
16	Duanesburg	0.297	C
17	Berlin	0.203	C
18	Whitehall	0.127	C
19	Rensselaer	0.069	C
20	Hadley-Luzerne	0.062	C
1	Fort Edward	0.778	D
2	Fort Ann	0.728	D
3	Heatly	0.674	D
4	Warrensburg	0.579	D
5	Germantown	0.560	D
6	North Warren	0.450	D
7	Argyle	0.409	D
8	Hartford	0.408	D
9	Northville	0.373	D
10	New Lebanon	0.360	D
11	Doane Stuart	0.263	D
12	Hawthorne Valley	0.252	D
13	Bolton	0.238	D
14	St. Johnsville	0.139	D
15	Sharon Springs	0.120	D
16	Loudonville Christian	0.112	D
17	Salem	(0.006)	D

Final Boys Forecast Rankings

Since the brackets are already out and it takes more time to get them into that order I thought I would just list everyone top to bottom along with their scores.  I have to get all the Girls games in from yesterday and run the model and once I post that, I'll put some thoughts together on how the Committee did and some things I'll be watching for once the games begin.  Just as a reminder, a ranking of 1.000 would be Championship level, 0.889 Finals level, 0.778 Semi-Finals, 0.667 Contender (by my own judgement), 0.556 Quarter-Final level. 

1	Catholic Central	0.749	AA
2	Guilderland	0.733	AA
3	Columbia	0.569	AA
4	Green Tech	0.559	AA
5	Shenendehowa	0.546	AA
6	Ballston Spa	0.518	AA
7	Shaker	0.472	AA
8	CBA	0.465	AA
9	Schenectady	0.413	AA
10	Saratoga Springs	0.374	AA
11	Bethlehem	0.255	AA
12	Bishop Maginn	0.247	AA
13	Albany	0.234	AA
14	Niskayuna	0.208	AA
15	Colonie	0.165	AA
16	LaSalle	0.087	AA
1	Scotia-Glenville	0.909	A
2	Troy	0.807	A
3	Gloversville	0.666	A
4	Averill Park	0.486	A
5	Amsterdam	0.398	A
6	Queensbury	0.292	A
7	Glens Falls	0.267	A
8	Hudson Falls	0.203	A
9	Mohonasen	0.200	A
10	Lansingburgh	0.180	A
11	Burnt Hills	0.135	A
12	Cobleskill	(0.020)	A
13	South Glens Falls	(0.028)	A
14	Bishop Gibbons	(0.035)	A
1	Hoosick Falls	0.895	B
2	Voorheesville	0.816	B
3	Mekeel Academy	0.785	B
4	Cohoes	0.775	B
5	Mechanicville	0.661	B
6	Broadalbin-Perth	0.655	B
7	Catskill	0.624	B
8	Taconic Hills	0.609	B
9	Watervliet	0.569	B
10	Schalmont	0.483	B
11	Corinth	0.437	B
12	Schuylerville	0.423	B
13	Johnstown	0.404	B
14	Stillwater	0.397	B
15	Coxsackie-Athens	0.380	B
16	Hudson	0.369	B
17	Fonda-Fultonville	0.343	B
18	Ravena	0.316	B
19	Cairo-Durham	0.259	B
20	Ichabod Crane	0.181	B
21	Tamarac	0.088	B
22	Granville	0.067	B
23	Greenville	0.027	B
24	Chatham	0.003	B
1	Lake George	0.814	C
2	Hoosic Valley	0.757	C
3	Saratoga Catholic	0.720	C
4	Waterford	0.619	C
5	Greenwich	0.603	C
6	Duanesburg	0.598	C
7	Berlin	0.559	C
8	Rensselaer	0.557	C
9	Fort Plain	0.508	C
10	Canajoharie	0.491	C
11	Berne-Knox	0.488	C
12	Maple Hill	0.487	C
13	Hadley-Luzerne	0.393	C
14	Schoharie	0.361	C
15	Middleburgh	0.344	C
16	Mayfield	0.249	C
17	Whitehall	0.074	C
18	Cambridge	0.006	C
19	Galway	(0.113)	C
1	Argyle	0.845	D
2	Germantown	0.678	D
3	Hartford	0.608	D
4	Fort Ann	0.594	D
5	North Warren	0.535	D
6	Heatly	0.373	D
7	St. Johnsville	0.352	D
8	Loudonville Christian	0.348	D
9	Salem	0.302	D
10	Northville	0.285	D
11	Fort Edward	0.202	D
12	Doane Stuart	0.080	D
13	Warrensburg	0.001	D
14	Sharon Springs	(0.035)	D
15	New Lebanon	(0.052)	D
16	Bolton	(0.053)	D
17	Hawthorne Valley	(0.081)	D

Girls Class C HV v. Field

So I'm attempting to do the girls class C  the same way I did the boys B's last night.  I had to include five teams this time as I thought it was necessary and it turns out to be cleaner as there are five different classes that are in play.  I chose the best of each league just to be fair to all and get a good comparison between the leagues involved.  They are Hoosic Valley from the Wasaren, Maple Hill from the Patroon, Lake George from the Adirondack, Waterford from the CHVL and Fort Plain from the WAC.  There could be some argument to using Fort Plain.  My reasoning is this, though tied with Canjo for the best record, they beat them twice head to head.  They also beat Berne-Knox by 7.  Berne-Knox split with Middleburgh, who has the best record on the other side of the WAC. 

The strongest argument would be Middleburgh.  They and Fort Plain both split with Mayfield by roughly the same margin, however Middleburgh beat Canjo by 24 which is 15 better than Fort Plain could do with two tries.  I chose Fort Plain, mostly because of a lovely email I received regarding them and my methods.

Anyway, I'm not done yet, because I'm using five teams instead of four and because the C schools don't have nearly as many common opponent opportunities since they are located at greater distances apart from each other.  Either way, I finished HV's analysis vs the other four teams I mentioned, and thought I'd put it out there for your consumption.

Of the four teams, Maple Hill was the closest having a head to head and a few other common opponents averaged together the margin went down to 7.0.  Lake George was second with 27.13, Fort Plain third with 27.14 and Waterford fourth at 33.13. 

Just to round it out, I also did HV v Greenwich, who would move ahead of Maple Hill slightly at 5.2.  I'll keep working on the rest of the analysis when I have more time as it's now past midnight, but if you just used the HV analysis the order would look like this.

1.  Hoosic Valley
2.  Greenwich
3.  Maple Hill
4a.  Middleburgh
4b.  Lake George
4c.  Fort Plain
7.  Waterford

Boys Class B Wasaren v. Colonial

I've seen a lot of discussion of how much better the Colonial is over the Wasaren and how Hoosick Falls doesn't deserve the #1 seed and shouldn't be the favorite.  My forecast has shown Hoosick Falls to be the most likely to win Sectionals and thus thinks they should be the #1 seed.

My personal opinion hadn't really be formed yet.  I'm fully aware of two things, the Colonial wins Sectionals a lot, and Hoosick Falls doesn't.  But, history is just that and though I use it in my formula to predict the future, I do so in an unbiased fashion.  I do not take into account how specific teams or Leagues have done in the past, rather how teams that are alike have done in the past, using certain criteria and variables.

All of this said, neither perspective really gives any clear definite answer as to who deserves the #1 seed this year, so I thought what I would do is a similar exercise that I did with the AA boys.  I compared common opponents for each of the top 3 Colonial teams, Voorheesville, Cohoes and Mechanicville as well as Hoosick Falls.  I know I left out Broadalbin-Perth and Mekeel Academy but I don't think anyone is arguing either of those should be the #1 seed nor does it help settle the argument of Wasaren v. Colonial if I included them (not to mention it would take forever, and time is not my friend right now). 

In a head to head comparison of common opponents, Hoosick Falls is 1.5 points better than Voorheesville, just over 5 points better than Cohoes and just over 11 points better than Mechanicville.  Voorheesville is 2.5 points better than Cohoes and 3.7 points better than Mechanicville and Cohoes is 3.8 points better than Mechanicville. When you average all of those head to head comps together, Hoosick Falls has the best score and when set to zero, they are an average +4.3 points better than Voorheesville, +7.1 points better than Cohoes and +12.1 better than Mechanicville. 

What this tells me is simply that Hoosick Falls' 14-0 in the Wasaren League and 16-0 in Section 2 is probably worth 3 to 4 points more than Voorheesville's 12-1 Colonial Council record and 15-1 Section 2 record, and yes, Hoosick Falls should be the #1 seed.  Whether they win Sectionals or not is up to them.