Saturday, December 28, 2013

What we've learned is....not much

Reporting on the Holiday Tournaments is always sparse and this year is no exception.  They are usually on weekends and due to them being Holiday Tournaments, they happen around Holidays at which times most people prefer not to work, myself included.  The point being not all the scores have been reported yet, and I haven't even had a chance to look at the girls scores at all, but I did have a few thoughts to relay.

The first being we didn't learn much so far.  Except, we have confirmation that Scotia is really good having beaten Newburgh and Schenectady.  Schenectady may not be great this year, but they are most likely the fourth best team in the Big 10.  Which provides a really good data point since they play Troy twice.  Schenectady has now lost to both teams, Scotia by 7 and Troy by 6.  Can we just play the Sectional final now?

Another thing we know is that Bishop Maginn really isn't, or shouldn't be a AA anymore.  They have an enrollment comparable to Saratoga Catholic who is a C and less than that of Bishop Gibbons who has been an A for a long time, not to mention the addition of Green Tech as another non-public school within the Albany school district.  They beat Saratoga Catholic by 8 and lost to Voorheesville, a B school by 13. 

Now for the things we don't know....still.  There are conflicting scores between the Colonial and Wasaren with Greenwich beating Ichabod Crane by 15 and Voorheesville beating Stillwater by 33.  Mechanicville previously beat Stillwater by 20 and Ichabod by 3.  Stillwater beat Greenwich by 7.  Just to make it more fun, Stillwater beat Saratoga Catholic (albeit from the WAC not the Colonial) by 12, while previously losing to Schuylerville by 21, while Schuylerville lost to Saratoga Catholic by 23.  If you want an answer as to how all of that can happen and make any sense, let me know when you figure it out.  My best guess is that Stillwater, who is at the heart of most of these conflicting scores, is highly inconsistent. 

Another point of intrigue, staying in the tangled web, is Hudson Falls beating Corinth by 3.  Hudson Falls has played both Corinth and Hoosic Valley, who they lost to by an average of 30.  Corinth has lost to Lake George by 20.  Using unsophisticated techniques, that makes Hudson Falls 17 points worse than Lake George (since they are 3 points better than Corinth, who is 20 points worse than Lake George).  Not a great point of reference, but until/if Lake George and Hoosic Valley play, the only one we currently have.  We'll see how that changes when LG plays Corinth for the second time.

One final note.  I ran the Forecast for the boys and girls prior to the tournaments just to see what they look like.  They are a bit a mess at this point just with the lack of good information on some of the teams.  Gloversville may be the prime example being ranked ahead of Troy.  Being undefeated with two of your five wins over a team with better than 150 more students than you will do that.  I'm not too concerned about it.  Either they'll lose by a ton to Scotia and drop or win and earn their place.  Regardless, it's these type of things that make me shy away from posting the Forecast too early. Unfortunately, you may see them still sitting there as they don't play against another Section 2 team until January 3rd. 

Since there is a light schedule on Monday, I'm going to work on the Forecast then and hopefully have something out prior to the games on Tuesday night.  In the meantime, if I can get a couple hours, I'll write up some thoughts on the girls, if not, have a happy and safe New Year. 

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