Monday, December 30, 2013

Boys Sectional Forecast #1 thru 12/30/13

Just to clarify things to start off, there are two games on the 30th I don't have yet, Greenwich v Maple Hill and Cambridge v Mechanicville.  The good news however is that Gloversville did have another Section 2 game on their schedule and that one is included.

Just a reminder, the Forecast only includes games against Section 2 teams, thus their records are only against Section 2 teams as well.  I also rank the AA teams 1 through 16 instead of how the Committee does it split between the Big 10 and Suburban.

Class AA
(1) Guilderland      5-0
(16) La Salle     2-4
(8) Bethlehem     2-2
(9) Columbia     3-3
(5) CBA     5-1(12) Niskayuna     1-3
(4) Ballston Spa     6-1
(13) Albany     3-3
(3) Green Tech     2-0
(14) Bishop Maginn     1-6
(6) Shaker     5-2
(11) Schenectady     4-4
(7) Shenendehowa     4-1
(10) Saratoga Springs     4-3
(2) Catholic Central     5-0
(15) Colonie     0-6

Let me start by reminding everyone that the model is made for the end of the season.  The regression model takes information at one point in time and compares it to other information at the same point in time.  This one specifically compares the information for a full season, not information through December.  While that would be cool to do, I don't have the resources to do it like that.

Anyway, I'm on the record as saying I think Green Tech is the favorite in this field and nothing has happened to change my mind as of yet.  The problem is they've only played 2 in-section games and with their current enrollment, they are competing with the past performance of CBA whose standards have been set pretty high.  Meanwhile, Guilderland is also undefeated, but at a much lower standard.  Ballston Spa is the other glaring weakness in the early season model.  While 6-1 is impressive, the only competitive team (in AA) they have played is Shen and they lost to them by 25.  You'll see them drop back in due time. 

It's still too early for me to give a good top 5.  I'd like to see CBA and Catholic Central play as well as Shen and Shaker.  My guess might be Green Tech, Guilderland, then some combination of CBA, CCHS, Shaker and Shen, however their head to head meetings play out.

Class A
(1) Scotia-Glenville     7-0
(16) Bye
(8) Hudson Falls     3-4
(9) Mohonasen     1-6
(5) Queensbury     3-2
(12) South Glens Falls     1-6
(4) Averill Park     4-3
(13) Bishop Gibbons     0-6
(3) Troy     4-1
(14) Cobleskill     0-5
(6) Amsterdam     2-5
(11) Burnt Hills     0-6
(7) Glens Falls     3-4
(10) Lansingburgh     1-7
(2) Gloversville     5-1
(15) Bye

So, Gloversville is still the 2 seed, but it's a whole lot closer now than before with just 0.009 separating them from Troy.  There aren't a lot of mediocre teams in this bunch and most of the higher seeds would probably win in this bracket.  The most news worthy point to see here is that Scotia's rating is 0.992 of a possible 1.000 and they are 0.187 greater than Gloversville.  They are the closest thing to a lock in the Section at this point in the season.  I really don't see how this plays out any other way than Scotia and Troy in the final with, at this point, Scotia the favorite. 

You'll also notice I left off Albany Academy.  This is because they don't play in our Sectionals.  If they decide to, I'll put them back in.  In case you're wondering, they would be a solid 4th right now, but again with only limited in-section games.

Class B
(1) Mekeel Academy     4-0
(16) Corinth     4-3
(8) Johnstown     5-2
(9) Coxsackie-Athens     4-1
(5) Voorheesville     4-1
(12) Taconic Hills     3-2
(4) Mechanicville     7-1
(13) Catskill     3-1
(3) Cohoes     6-1
(14) Schalmont     4-3
(6) Watervliet     4-2
(11) Stillwater     4-4
(7) Ravena     3-1
(10) Schuylerville     5-2
(2) Hoosick Falls     5-0
(15) Hudson     4-3

Not rated: Ichabod Crane, Broadalbin-Perth, Cairo-Durham, Tamarac, Fonda-Fultonville, Granville, Chatham, Greenville

Every team in the field is at least .500.  This has the potential for the most volatility over the remainder of the season just because they are all so closely matched.  You'll also notice that the Colonial Council, while not in the top 2, holds the next 5 spots.  The Committee will never let this happen, and it probably won't end this way anyway, but it does show how competitive the league is.  I actually don't have too much to disagree with so far.  You might be able to flop a few of them but not by more than a spot or two and at this point, it's not going to make much difference.

Class C
(1) Hoosic Valley     8-0
(16) Middleburgh     1-5
(8) Berlin     2-2
(9) Schoharie     3-2
(5) Greenwich     4-2
(12) Rensselaer     3-3
(4) Saratoga Catholic    7-2
(13) Berne-Knox     3-2
(3) Duanesburg     6-1
(14) Hadley-Luzerne     3-4
(6) Mayfield      5-1
(11) Waterford     4-3
(7) Maple Hill     4-2
(10) Canajoharie     4-3
(2) Lake George     6-0
(15) Fort Plain     2-3

Not rated:  Cambridge, Whitehall, Galway

This is not the bracket it was last year for sure.  Not a single Colonial team and only two Wasaren teams (in the top 16 that is).  There is sure to be a scare somewhere along the way, it seems there always is, but HV and LG appear destined for a rematch in the title game.  They are the only two teams that are even remotely close to a final four rating through Decmeber.  Compare that to the B bracket where two teams are significantly over and two more that are closer than the 3rd team in the C bracket.

It may not be deep, but the top may be just as good.  The big difference I see between the two classes is their number of scorers.  Mekeel has 3 scorers over 12 ppg and 2 more over 8 ppg.  HV has two over 18, but no one else over 7, while LG has one over 30 and none over 7.  The game is about scoring more than your opponent (that team usually wins), so we'll see what's better to have.

Class D
(1) Germantown     5-0
(16) Hawthorne Valley     0-4
(8) St. Johnsville    3-4
(9) Northville     3-5
(5) North Warren     4-3
(12) Doane Stuart     2-5
(4) Hartford     4-2
(13) Warrensburg     1-5
(3) Fort Ann     4-2
(14) Sharon Springs     0-4
(6) Heatly     4-4
(11) Salem     3-3
(7) Loudonville Christian      3-3

(10) Fort Edward     3-4
(2) Argyle     6-1
(15) Bolton     0-6

Not rated:  New Lebanon

I still believe Argyle is the team to beat here, but that doesn't mean they can't be beaten.  Germantown has won in the past and it's certainly not out of the question this year either.  These are the closest 1-2 seeds in the Section and probably the only serious contenders with Argyle having already beaten the current 3, 4 and 5 seeds by an average of 20 points.

If you want to give a team an A for effort, you can hand it right over to Heatly.  They haven't won a non-league game yet, but the four teams they lost to have an average enrollment over 4 times their own, with only 56 kids to choose from (fielding a team of 12 would require 1/5 of the total student body both boys and girls), and have a combined 15-7 record excluding their wins over Heatly. 

Just got the Greenwich v Maple Hill score (Greenwich by 17) and dumped it in just to see what happened.  Greenwich jumped over Spa Catholic and Maple Hill dropped below Berlin.  One score, two changes.  A lot can change from week to week, especially this early in the season.

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