Thursday, January 2, 2014

Girls' Sectional Forecast #1 thru 12/31/13

So we're at the end of the calendar year, and with it comes the first forecast for the girls.  This is only the second full season of the girls' Forecast and it only includes two full seasons of data.  I'm still not as comfortable with this one as I am with the boys' Forecast.  This one seems mostly to just put them in order by winning percentage.  I was hoping to see a change after Waterford's dismal showing in the Sectionals last year, but nothing dramatic has changed. 

It may simply be that the best predictor for the girls is winning percentage.  I don't think we'll really know for a couple more years and it may not even show up until there are five full seasons and I can run the classes individually. 

Class AA
(1) Shaker     5-0
(16) Bye
(8) Schenectady     2-7
(9) Saratoga Springs     2-4
(5) Bethlehem     4-1
(12) Bishop Maginn     1-7
(4) Columbia     6-1
(13) Ballston Spa     0-6
(3) Shenendehowa     5-0
(14) Bye
(6) Catholic Central     3-4
(11) Colonie     1-5
(7) Niskayuna     2-4
(10) Guilderland     1-4
(2) Albany     2-0
(15) Bye

The top five look right in terms of who belongs there.  Columbia being the odd team out for the final four.  I still think there is a good chance we end up with a rematch of last years' final with Albany and Bethlehem but wouldn't be surprised if Shen or Shaker fought their way in.  There is a lot of talent in this top four and the only way I see that not happening is if they are lined up to play prior to the final four.  Shaker, Albany and Shen all have ratings above final four status.  Overall, the ratings seem low to me considering none of them have lost.  Once/if that happens, they are bound to drop below that point, or very near it.  Perhaps that's Waterford's influence rearing its ugly head.

Class A
(1) Averill Park     7-0
(16) Bye
(8) Hudson Falls     3-3
(9) Amsterdam     2-4
(5) Glens Falls     4-1
(12) Burnt Hills     1-6
(4) Albany Leadership     5-1
(13) Mohonasen     0-7
(3) Holy Names     6-0
(14) Gloversville     0-5
(6) Troy     4-1
(11) South Glens Falls     1-4
(7) Queensbury     5-1
(10) Lansingburgh     1-4
(2) Scotia-Glenville     5-0
(15) Bye

The major snub here is Troy.  Scotia beat Bishop Maginn by 27 while Troy did by 45.  While both are over the point that it matters, it's still a large difference.  Averill Park deserves the #1 so far but I'd probably have Troy #2, Scotia #3, Holy Names #4 and Queensbury #5.  Actually, now that I look at it, I might put Queensbury #3, then Scotia and Holy Names.  Queensbury and Scotia have played two common opponents and Queensbury beat both by greater margins.  Holy Names has also played Bishop Maginn and won by 13.  I might be discounting Glens Falls too much as well.  Time will tell.  Oh, and I almost forgot about Albany Leadership.  If anyone knows the final score between them and Ravena, please let me know.  I found it, but in a precarious place and I'm not sure I trust it.  That said, if it's accurate, they don't belong in the top 5.

Class B
(1) Watervliet     6-0
(16) Emma Willard     3-3
(8) Johnstown     4-2
(9) Bishop Gibbons     2-2
(5) Hoosick Falls     5-2
(12) Ichabod Crane     4-2
(4) Coxsackie-Athens     3-2
(13) Fonda-Fultonville     4-2
(3) Hudson     6-1
(14) Voorheesville     3-2
(6) Schalmont     4-1
(11) Greenville     4-2
(7) Corinth     4-2
(10) Cohoes     4-2
(2) Tamarac     7-1
(15) Mechanicville     3-3

Not rated:  Stillwater, Chatham, Albany Academy, Broadablin-Perth, Taconic Hills, Ravena, Catskill, Cobleskill, Cairo-Durham, Schuylerville, Granville

With 27 teams you could almost fill two brackets.  Section 2 has done that in the past and perhaps they will again, I haven't heard.  For now, I'm sticking to 16, and a loaded 16 it is.  Much like the boys, everyone is at least .500 and I don't think we'll really get a feel for how this is going to shake out for a while.  The one thing I am comfortable with is the top 2.  I think you'll see that hold throughout the year.  There is a fairly significant drop off in the ratings after Hudson and honestly, it probably should be after Tamarac.  Hudson lost to Stillwater, who lost to Tamarac by 44.  The Colonial B's and Johnstown and maybe even Hoosick Falls are probably all a little better than Hudson, but records go a long way in this model.  There are upwards of five other teams outside the top 2 that are a threat if they got on a hot streak, even if their odds  of winning the title aren't as high, I'd certainly not feel great about having to play any of them in the second round.  It's a tough bracket to win and whoever comes out on top will have earned it.

Class C
(1) Waterford     8-0
(16) Berne-Knox     2-4
(8) Middleburgh     4-2
(9) Berlin     3-2
(5) Canajoharie     5-2
(12) Mekeel Academy     2-3
(4) Greenwich     6-1
(13) Cambridge     3-4
(3) Lake George     6-1
(14) Schoharie     2-4
(6) Hoosic Valley     6-2
(11) Mayfield     5-4
(7) Galway     6-3
(10) Fort Plain     3-2
(2) Maple Hill     6-1
(15) Duanesburg     1-4

Not rated:  Saratoga Catholic, Whitehall, Rensselaer, Hadley-Luzerne

I threw up a little in my mouth when I saw this.  Apparently the model hasn't learned its lesson.  If by the end of the year, the model doesn't have Hoosic Valley in the top 4 I may need to reevaluate whether or not it's worth continuing the girls side until I can get enough data to do it by class.  Greenwich has beaten both Lake George and HV, and HV beat Maple Hill so Greenwich is #1 in my book for the time being (we'll see how the second matchup with HV turns out.  HV is #2, LG #3, MH #4 then maybe one of the WAC teams, or maybe three then Waterford.  Waterford beat Taconic Hills by 2 (again, like last year), TH lost to MH by 15 and HV beat MH by 11.  That's a 13 point difference between Waterford and MH and roughly 20 to HV.  I feel like there is room in there for someone to be between them.

Last year I was disappointed every week to not see HV moving up.  They ended up winning the title in a blow out.  I don't see a blow out this year regardless of who makes the final, but I have a feeling I'm going to be disappointed each week again this year as well.

Class D
(1) Fort Ann     7-0
(16) St. Johnsville     0-5
(8) Northville     3-4
(9) Argyle     2-4
(5) Hartford     4-2
(12) Bolton     1-5
(4) North Warren     5-2
(13) Doane Stuart     1-3
(3) Heatly     4-2
(14) Sharon Springs     0-4
(6) Germantown     5-3
(11) Hawthorne Valley     1-4
(7) Warrensburg     3-3
(10) New Lebanon     2-4
(2) Fort Edward     5-1
(15) Loudonville Christian     0-6

Not rated:  Salem

No disrespect to Heatly, but barring matchups making it impossible I see the top 4 and final 4 coming from the Adirondack again this year.  If you just drop Heatly down to #5 and move the others up, I don't think you can argue too much with that lineup, maybe a point here and there, but nothing that will make too much of a difference. 

I caught a little bit of a break here with the snow giving me a chance to catch up.  I really wish I had more time to dedicate like I did last year but sometimes life gets in the way of things.  I hope everyone had a happy New Year and is safe in the cold and snow the next couple days.  You gotta love the Northeast.

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