Sunday, January 19, 2014

Girls Sectional Forecast #2 thru 1/19/14

It's been almost three weeks since we looked at the girls' brackets and a lot has happened.  Let's see what effects all those games have had.

Class AA
(1) Shaker     9-0  no change
(16) Bye
(8) Saratoga Springs     5-6  up 1
(9) Guilderland    4-5  up 1
(5) Columbia    7-5  down 1
(12) Bishop Maginn     1-11  no change
(4) Bethlehem     7-2  up 1
(13) Ballston Spa     0-12  no change
(3) Shenendehowa     8-2  no change
(14) Bye
(6) Catholic Central     4-5  no change
(11) Schenectady     2-9  down 3
(7) Colonie     5-6  up 4
(10) Niskayuna     3-7  down 3
(2) Albany     8-0  no change
(15) Bye

Three weeks and almost nothing has changed in AA.  I'm inclined to agree with things at the moment.  Shaker has beaten Shen and Bethlehem and despite the large difference in their performances against Shaker, in which Shen was blown out and Bethlehem played to within 10, Shen's overall season has been slightly more impressive.  That doesn't mean I think Shen beats Bethlehem however.  Of that I'm unconvinced.  I'm not sure Albany should be #2 but given they haven't played anyone in-section outside the Big 10, it's difficult to judge that.

Averill Park beat Shen and Bethlehem by 8 and 10 points respectively and Catholic Central by 18.  Albany beat CCHS by 11 so they are in the same ballpark as Shen and Bethlehem and I'll give the model the benefit of the doubt as I don't have any better information to go by.

Outside Shaker and Albany no one has a rating better than a final four with Shen and Bethlehem both closer to final eight than four.  With that knowledge I give Shaker and Albany a good chance to make the finals.

Class A
(1) Averill Park     12-0  no change
(16) Bye
(8) Amsterdam     6-5  up 1
(9) Hudson Falls     5-6  down 1
(5) Troy     6-2  up 1
(12) Burnt Hills     1-10  no change
(4) Queensbury     9-1  up 3
(13) Mohonasen     1-10  no change
(3) Albany Leadership     8-1  up 1
(14) Gloversville     0-8  no change
(6) Glens Falls     8-3  down 1
(11) Lansingburgh     3-7  down 1
(7) Scotia-Glenville     7-4  down 5
(10) South Glens Falls     4-6  up 1
(2) Holy Names     11-0  up 1
(15) Bye

I was afraid to read what I wrote last time about Scotia but was pleasantly surprised that I had mentioned Queensbury should be ahead of them.  Scotia has lost 4 in a row now.  I'm still not enthralled by portions of this bracket even though I'm in agreement with Averill Park.  I still think Troy should be #2 and I'd probably have Queensbury #3 followed by Holy Names.  Despite their undefeated mark, Holy Names hasn't been as impressive with their MOV averaging just over +13 points per game and they have yet to play Watervliet and Fonda, the next two teams in winning percentage in their league. 

Albany Leadership is grossly overrated.  All of their wins have come against either C or D schools or really bad A and B schools.  The one time they played a decent team, a B school at that, they lost.  On the other side of the coin, Amsterdam may be a little under valued at 8.  Perhaps not a ton undervalued, but a little.

Class B
(1) Watervliet     11-0  no change
(16) Coxsackie-Athens     4-6  down 12
(8) Johnstown    7-4  no change
(9) Schalmont     7-4  down 3
(5) Fonda-Fultonville     8-2  up 8
(12) Cohoes     6-5  down 2
(4) Greenville     9-2  up 7
(13) Stillwater     6-6  up 4
(3) Hudson     9-2  no change
(14) Voorheesville     5-6  no change
(6) Corinth     6-4  up 1
(11) Ichabod Crane     6-5  up 1
(7) Hoosick Falls     7-4  down 2
(10) Emma Willard     6-5  up 6
(2) Tamarac     11-1  no change
(15) Ravena     6-6  up 7

Not rated:  Mechnicville, Chatham, Taconic Hills, Bishop Gibbons, Broadablin-Perth, Catskill, Albany Academy, Schuylerville, Cobleskill, Cairo-Durham, Granville

I agree with the top two, but after that it gets dicey.  Hudson lost to Stillwater who is #13 currently and 6-6 overall.  After Tamarac you could line up three or four Colonial teams and Johnstown then Hoosick Falls before you get to the best of the Patroon.  As evidence I can point to Catskill, who lost to Hoosick Falls by 21, Hudson by 17 and Greenville by 14, as well as the Hudson v Stillwater game.  Hoosick Falls beat Stillwater by 6, the same margin Stillwater beat Hudson. 

The bottom line however remains that Watervliet and Tamarac are the best two teams in the bracket and, unlike last year, should meet in the final.  That said, if you look at the newspaper at the end of February and see Ichabod Crane (or any number of Colonial teams) upsetting Tamarac don't be completely surprised (like I was last year). 

Class C
(1) Waterford     12-0  no change
(16) Duanesburg     2-7  down 1
(8) Canajoharie     8-3  down 3
(9) Greenwich     9-3  down 5Berlin     3-2
(5) Fort Plain     7-2  up 5
(12) Mayfield     6-7  down 1
(4) Middleburgh     8-2  up 4
(13) Cambridge     3-7  no change
(3) Lake George     10-1  no change
(14) Mekeel Academy     3-7  down 2
(6) Galway     9-3  up 1
(11) Schoharie     4-6  up 3
(7) Hoosic Valley    9-3  down 1
(10) Berne-Knox     6-4  up 6
(2) Maple Hill     11-1  no change
(15) Saratoga Catholic     4-7  up 2

Not rated:  Berlin, Hadley-Luzerne, Whitehall, Rensselaer

This bracket, by far, continues to be the most frustrating of them all on both the girls and the boys.  Hoosic Valley should be the #1 team here coming off their convincing win over Greenwich.  Maple Hill is #2, Greenwich #3, Lake George #4.  If one is feeling generous you could put Waterford #5.  Waterford's only non-league game was a win over Taconic Hills by 2.  MH beat TH by 15.  Add in the 11 point variance between MH and HV, and Waterford is 24 points worse than the #1 team.  Lake George, by similar methods would be 15 worse. 

Galway beat Schoharie by 6, and Middleburgh beat Schoharie twice by an average of 5.  They are roughly equal.  Middleburgh is, by average, 8 points better than Duanesburg, who lost to Maple Hill by 43.  That puts the whole WAC in a bad light, even if Fort Plain is 5 to 10 points better than Galway and Middleburgh that would put Fort Plain roughly in the same boat Waterford is in, which seems reasonable to me. 

Class D
(1) Fort Ann     10-1  no change
(16) St. Johnsville     0-10  no change
(8) Argyle     5-6  up 1
(9) Northville     4-6  down 1
(5) Warrensburg     6-4  up 2
(12) Bolton     2-8  no change
(4) Germantown     8-4  up 2
(13) Doane Stuart     1-7  no change
(3) Heatly     8-3  no change
(14) Sharon Springs     0-8  no change
(6) Hartford   7-4  down 1
(11) Hawthorne Valley     3-7  no change
(7) North Warren     7-5  down 3
(10) New Lebanon     4-5  no change
(2) Fort Edward     8-2  no change
(15) Loudonville Christian     0-9  no change

Not rated:  Salem

There are two lines of thought on the CHVL this year.  Either Waterford dropped back a little, or everyone else got a little better.  It's not an easy question to answer, but if it's the latter there is a possibility this lineup could be accurate.  Though there is no evidence to support either argument, neither Fort Ann nor Fort Edward appear as good as they were last year either.  I do believe the winner will come from the Adirondack, but I'm not as convinced the top four will as well.

No comments:

Post a Comment