Sunday, January 26, 2014

Boys Sectional Forecast #4 thru 1/26/14

Let's get into it.

Class AA
(1) Guilderland      12-1  no change
(16) La Salle     3-10  no change
(8) CBA     9-4 no change
(9) Schenectady     9-6  down 2
(5) Green Tech     2-1  down 2
(12) Bethlehem     4-7 down 2
(4) Shenendehowa     10-2 up 5
(13) Albany     6-8  up 1
(3) Columbia     9-4  up1
(14) Bishop Maginn   4-9  down 2
(6) Ballston Spa     8-6  down 1
(11) Niskayuna     4-9  up 2
(7) Shaker     9-4  down 1
(10) Saratoga Springs     9-5 up 1
(2) Catholic Central     11-0  no change
(15) Colonie     4-9  no change

So I wrote a bit about the AA bracket earlier this week and despite losing, Guilerland maintained the top spot.  Albeit, narrowly by 0.002.  Both they and Catholic Central are the only two teams, now including Green Tech's loss to Albany Academy, to be above the "contender" line I spoke of in my last post.

I've been reading the comments on the TU about Albany Academy and their inability to enter the Big 10.  From what I gather it's all about politics at this point and it's really a shame because we would all be better off as basketball fans if both Albany Academy and Green Tech belonged to a Section 2 league.  I can understand how having these teams play top ranked State schools gains Section 2 some exposure they were lacking previously, but I feel it's more damaging NOT having Albany Academy playing in our Sectionals than any benefit they get from playing an Independent schedule.

If Albany Academy were playing 14 league games in the Section, playing and beating other AA schools, it would be much more difficult justifying to anyone they should be class A rather than AA.  If Bishop Maginn is still a AA, there's no reason Academy shouldn't be as well.  I will now step off my high horse.

Class A
(1) Scotia-Glenville     13-0  no change
(16) Bye
(8) Glens Falls     4-10  down 1
(9) Mohonasen     2-12  no change
(5) Amsterdam     4-10  up 1
(12) South Glens Falls     2-12  no change
(4) Averill Park     7-7  no change
(13) Bishop Gibbons     0-12  up 1
(3) Gloversville     10-3 no change
(14) Cobleskill     0-12 down 1
(6) Queensbury     6-7  down 1
(11) Burnt Hills     1-12  no change
(7) Hudson Falls    5-9  up 1
(10) Lansingburgh     3-10  no change
(2) Troy     10-2  no change
(15) Bye

There is nothing quite like making yourself look stupid.  Not that I haven't done it before, it's just always exciting when you do it again.  Last week I made the case that Troy has a decent chance at winning this bracket.  While that may be the case, they certainly didn't do anything this week to make it look that way.  They lost to Amsterdam earlier in the week and this weekend, lost to Newburgh by 16.  The latter by itself isn't anything to be ashamed of, but Scotia has also played Newburgh and beat them by 14.  Bubble.....burst.

Class B
(1) Hoosick Falls     13-0 no change
(16) Corinth     7-6  down 5
(8) Watervliet     8-4  no change
(9) Coxsackie-Athens     9-3  no change
(5) Mechanicville    11-3 no change
(12) Johnstown     8-6 no change
(4) Cohoes     12-2  down 1
(13) Stillwater     8-7  up 1
(3) Mekeel Academy     8-1  up 1
(14) Schuylerville     8-6  up 1
(6) Taconic Hills     10-3 no change
(11) Schalmont    7-5  down 1
(7) Broadalbin-Perth     8-5  no change
(10) Catskill    7-3  up 3
(2) Voorheesville     13-1  no change
(15) Ravena     7-6  up 1

Not rated: Hudson, Cairo-Durham, Fonda-Fultonville, Ichabod Crane, Tamarac, Granville, Chatham, Greenville

Hoosick Falls maintains #1 despite a letdown game against Greenwich.  That is mostly because it was still a win, but much closer than one would think.  This is one of the most competitive brackets in either boys or girls with 4 teams over the "contender" line and a fifth very close.  With three of them from the Colonial Council, I would give them the nod that this point and feel pretty good about it.  HF has a long history of having really good seeding and not winning so we'll see if they can continue that trend or break through.  It won't be easy against this group. 

If this is the way the bracket plays out, they would potentially get a Colonial team in every round after the first.  That would be very entertaining indeed.

Class C
(1) Lake George     12-1  up 1
(16) Middleburgh     4-7  no change
(8) Fort Plain     8-4  no change
(9) Rensselaer     8-5  up 3
(5) Berlin     8-3  up 1
(12) Berne-Knox     7-6  down 2
(4) Duanesburg     12-3  down 1
(13) Hadley-Luzerne     8-5  no change
(3) Saratoga Catholic    13-2  up 1
(14) Schoharie     5-6  up 1
(6) Greenwich     9-5  down 1
(11) Canajoharie     8-5 no change
(7) Waterford     7-4  up 2
(10) Maple Hill     8-6  down 3
(2) Hoosic Valley     13-1  down 1
(15) Mayfield     6-6  down 1

Not rated:  Whitehall, Cambridge, Galway

Berlin and Greenwich were supposed to have played.  Forgive me if I don't believe that Berlin won.  Regardless there are no shortage of potential hazards here though strangely, in the current bracket I see more for the #1 seed than the #2.  That said, Lake George's win over Argyle this week after Argyle hit a 3 to send it into overtime confirms for me that there is a will to win with that team that is greater than most.  I can't tell you how many times I've seen a team lose a lead on a last second buzzer beater to tie the game go on to lose in OT.  That game says a lot about their character and confirms last year wasn't just a lucky run through the States.  Hoosic Valley may or may not have that will, but their rematch with Hoosick Falls could shed some light in that respect.  Their first meeting leads me to believe they don't.

Beating Wincowski and Lake George is going to be very difficult for any of these teams. 

Class D
(1) Argyle     11-2 no change
(16) New Lebanon     0-9  no change
(8) St. Johnsville    5-7  down 1
(9) Northville     4-10  up 2
(5) North Warren     8-5  no change
(12) Doane Stuart     3-12  no change
(4) Fort Ann     8-4  no change
(13) Warrensburg     1-11  no change
(3) Hartford     9-3  no change
(14) Bolton     0-13  no change
(6) Heatly     7-7  no change
(11) Fort Edward     4-9  down 2
(7) Loudonville Christian      7-6  up 1
(10) Salem     5-8  no change
(2) Germantown     10-1  no change
(15) Sharon Springs     0-10  no change

Not rated:  Hawthorne Valley

Both top teams took losses this week so no surprise there wasn't a change.  There is also still quite a distance between second and third.  Four of the top five are from the Adirondack which isn't too surprising.  Other than Germantown, the CHVL's better teams are C schools.  Still miffed by New Lebanon being higher than Hawthorne Valley.  If only I had more scores........

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