Saturday, January 4, 2014

The Niagara Connection

I was looking through the scores tonight and noticed a non-section school on the schedule I have seen before -  Niagara Catholic.  Tonight they faced Green Tech and lost by over 30.  I couldn't remember who they played prior so I looked it up on the TU website and see they have also played Bethlehem and CBA. 

Although I'm not a huge fan of playing teams outside the section (I don't use them in the calculation since I don't have all their schedules and their other opponents schedules) if they are active enough within our Section, their games can still be useful, if not for the model at least from an analytical standpoint. 

So how did they fare against the 3 Section 2 teams?  They lost to all three, Bethlehem by 26, CBA by 24 and Green Tech by 34.  Bethlehem and CBA have also played another non-section team, St. Peter's.  St. Peter's beat both teams, Bethlehem by 29 and CBA by 20.  That is a net MOV for CBA of +4 and for Bethlehem a -3.  For argument's sake that makes CBA 7 points better than Bethlehem.  Since Green Tech outperformed CBA by 10 against Niagara Catholic that makes them 17 points better than Bethlehem. 

Over at the TU both James Allen and Eric Medved have Green Tech #1 in the AA, with Guilderland #2.  This has been a point of contention for me since I don't use visual information for the model, i.e. watching the games (since I don't have the time), I use data, i.e. scores.  I knew Green Tech should be good since they were last year and kept a good portion of their starting roster.  Guilderland, I hadn't a clue.......until now.  Guilderland has played Bethlehem and beat them by 18.   Given the non scientific nature of this exercise I would say that makes Green Tech and Guilderland roughly even. 

To back that up, Green Tech and Guilderland each have played and beaten Colonie, GT by 12 and G'land by 14.  To back that up even further, they've each played and beaten Shaker as well (which I'm sure makes all those in the South Colonie school district happy and vice versa for North Colonie) GT by 21, G'land by 17. 

The point of this all is that GT and G'land are probably 1, 2 in either order followed by CCHS and CBA in either order with CBA being roughly ten points worse than the top 2 spots.  Then Shaker rolls in at #5 roughly ten points behind CBA.  You can argue Shen if you want, but they just lost to Columbia so I won't.

Who doesn't love a little math now and again?

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