Saturday, January 11, 2014

Boys Sectional Forecast #2 thru 1/11/14

Just when you things can't get worse a week like last week happens.  I had literally no time to work on this at all last week which is unfortunate (for many other reasons I won't divulge) because it was a great week of basketball .  Regardless, the second forecast is done and there are numerous changes. 

Class AA
(1) Catholic Central     7-0  up 1
(16) La Salle     2-7  no change
(8) Saratoga Springs     6-3  up 2
(9) Schenectady     6-4  up 2
(5) CBA     6-2  no change
(12) Bethlehem     2-4  down 4
(4) Shaker     7-2  up 2  no change
(13) Niskayuna     1-5  down 1
(3) Green Tech     2-0  no change
(14) Albany     3-6  down 1
(6) Columbia     5-4  up 3
(11) Bishop Maginn    3-6  up 3
(7) Ballston Spa     6-4  down 3
(10) Shenendehowa     5-2  down 3
(2) Guilderland      9-0  down 1
(15) Colonie     2-6  no change

I'm much more pleased this time around with the lay of the land.  It goes to show how tough the top of this bracket is when Guilderland went 4-0 since the last forecast and dropped a spot.  I have a hard time with CCHS as #1 just because they have been a bit inconsistent winning three games by a combined 14 points and none of the other four by less than 16.  I would probably put them #3, but they still have a chance to prove themselves of their current spot so we'll see how it plays out.  Ballston Spa dropped much as I expected despite only losing to Shaker by 2.  They may be better than I gave them credit for, but they still aren't a top 4 team.

There are a few things here I still disagree with, but I think the top 5, though not in order, are right.  Columbia may even prove to be right at #6.  As it currently stands, CCHS and Guilderland are only separated by 0.004 with Green Tech back another 0.025.  They've still only played 2 in-section games so there's time for that to change.  Beyond that the ratings plummet by 0.200.  I would say it's extremely likely at this point one of the current top three win sectionals.

Class A
(1) Scotia-Glenville     9-0  no change
(16) Bye
(8) Hudson Falls     3-7  no change
(9) Mohonasen     1-8  no change
(5) Queensbury     5-3  no change
(12) South Glens Falls     1-9  no change
(4) Averill Park     6-4  no change
(13) Cobleskill     0-7  up 1
(3) Gloversville     7-2  down 1
(14) Bishop Gibbons     0-9  down 1
(6) Amsterdam     3-6  no change
(11) Lansingburgh     1-8  down 1
(7) Glens Falls     4-6  no change
(10) Burnt Hills     0-9  up 1
(2) Troy     7-1  up 1
(15) Bye

Not much change going on here, but the big one is Troy has overtaken Gloversville for the #2.  This still has a chance to flip back if Troy were to lose both games to CBA and CCHS as they split with those two the first time around and assuming all the other games go as they did the first time.  I don't think it will happen, but it should be the only chance for Troy to drop down a spot.  Again as with the AA bracket, after the top 3 the ratings drop significantly.  Even though Scotia is the heavy favorite, I'll be even more conservative and say, as I did with the AA, the sectional winner comes from the current top three.

Class B
(1) Hoosick Falls     8-0  up 1
(16) Hudson     5-4  down 1
(8) Watervliet     5-3  down 2
(9) Broadalbin-Perth     5-4  up 10
(5) Mechanicville    9-3  down 1
(12) Schalmont    5-4  up 2
(4) Voorheesville     7-1  up 1
(13) Stillwater     5-5  down 2
(3) Cohoes     8-1  no change
(14) Catskill    4-2  down 1
(6) Taconic Hills     6-2  up 6
(11) Johnstown     6-4  down 3
(7) Coxsackie-Athens     6-2  up 2
(10) Corinth     6-3  up 6
(2) Mekeel Academy     5-0  down 1
(15) Schuylerville     5-4  down 5

Not rated: Ravena, Ichabod Crane, Cairo-Durham, Tamarac, Fonda-Fultonville, Granville, Chatham, Greenville

Just like last forecast every team rated is at least 0.500.  Ravena is also at #17.  Needless to say this is the polar opposite of the A bracket.  Everyone but Cohoes occupies a different spot this time than last.  Hoosick Falls had a big win over Hoosic Valley this week and though it was a big win, I don't think I would put them #1 because of it.  Regardless, I would say the top 3 are right independent of order.

There were some huge swings as well, with Broadalbin-Perth moving up 10 spots.  Corinth and Taconic Hills each moved up 6 and Schuylerville dropped 5.  Taconic Hills and Coxsackie-Athens also broke into the Colonial stronghold on the middle of the bracket.  With the Colonial teams fairly evenly matched it makes it hard for them to maintain a good rating because they are bound to lose a game here and there.  I think it will be hard for any of these middle teams from 4 to 8 to separate themselves.  Voorheesville looks like they are at the moment, but they have three wins by a total of 9 points and have lost to the #8 team.

I see a lot of change coming in this bracket and probably until the end.

Class C
(1) Lake George     8-0  up 1
(16) Middleburgh     2-5  no change
(8) Maple Hill     6-4  down 1
(9) Waterford     6-3  up 2
(5) Saratoga Catholic    9-2  down 1
(12) Mayfield     5-3  down 6
(4) Greenwich     7-3  up 1
(13) Schoharie     3-4  down 4
(3) Duanesburg     7-2  no change
(14) Hadley-Luzerne     4-5  no change
(6) Berlin     4-2  up 2
(11) Canajoharie     6-3  down 1
(7) Berne-Knox     5-2  up 6
(10) Fort Plain     5-3  up 5
(2) Hoosic Valley     9-1  down 1
(15) Rensselaer     4-5  down 3

Not rated:  Cambridge, Whitehall, Galway

Lake George has taken over the top spot by 0.005 over Hoosic Valley after their loss to Hoosick Falls by a point.  This should remain up in the air until LG plays Argyle at which point we'll know if LG will run the table or head into sectionals with a loss on their record.  They've gotten back on track a bit after a rough start winning their last two by 36 and 37.  HV on the other hand would need to sweep the second half of the Wasaren schedule to have a chance.

If LG loses to Argyle then I think HV comes out on top regardless of their other game with HF.  LG is maxed out on MOV and winning percentage so they don't have much room to move up their rating.  A loss would only drop it down even farther.  No disrespect to the other teams here, but I don't see any of them winning this bracket.  None of the ratings, including the top two, are overwhelming, but Duanesburg's 7-2 is hollow with a 1 point win included, a 3 point win over Waterford and an 8 point win over Doane Stuart.

The only real threats would be Greenwich who lost to HV by 17, and Saratoga Catholic who has a well rounded scoring distribution.  I wouldn't give either a very good chance.

Class D
(1) Argyle     8-1  up 1
(16) New Lebanon     0-6 up 1
(8) Salem     4-5  up 3
(9) St. Johnsville    3-5  down 1
(5) North Warren     6-3  no change
(12) Doane Stuart     3-6  no change
(4) Hartford     5-3  no change
(13) Warrensburg     1-7  no change
(3) Fort Ann     6-2  no change
(14) Bolton     0-9  up 1
(6) Loudonville Christian      5-4  up 1
(11) Northville     3-8  down 2
(7) Heatly     4-6  down 1
(10) Fort Edward     3-6  no change
(2) Germantown     7-0  down 1
(15) Sharon Springs     0-6  down 1

Not rated:  Hawthorne Valley

Despite being undefeated I do believe Argyle deserves the #1 over Germantown.  It's still relatively close and at the end Germantown may even win the thing but Argyle is putting up some impressive numbers and only lost to Hoosick Falls by 9 points.  The winner of this tournament will come from the current top two, though I think I agree with the top 5 in order.

The brackets as a whole look a lot more like what I would expect so far.  I'm a lot happier this time than I was last. 

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