Monday, January 27, 2014

Girls Sectional Forecast #3 thru 1/27/14

Here we go....

Class AA
(1) Shaker     11-0  no change
(16) Bye
(8) Colonie     6-7  down 1
(9) Guilderland    5-7  no change
(5) Columbia    9-5  no change
(12) Bishop Maginn     2-12  no change
(4) Bethlehem     10-2  no change
(13) Ballston Spa     1-13  no change
(3) Shenendehowa     10-2  no change
(14) Bye
(6) Catholic Central     7-5  no change
(11) Schenectady     2-12 no change
(7) Saratoga Springs     7-7  up 1
(10) Niskayuna     3-10  no change
(2) Albany     9-0  no change
(15) Bye

I'm rather amazed that this continues to go about with nothing changing. Shaker and Albany are very close at this point with Shen and Bethlehem a bit back, both of the latter very close to the magic "contender" score.  While I think either Shen or Bethlehem has a chance, this is Shaker's bracket to lose.  They are and should be the favorite unless something happens in the next two weeks to change that.  I like the ordering of this bracket as well.  While I haven't had the time to dissect things like I did last year, this one seems pretty straight forward, perhaps that's why it hasn't changed.

Class A
(1) Averill Park     13-1  no change
(16) Bye
(8) Amsterdam     6-8  no change
(9) Hudson Falls     5-8  no change
(5) Troy     8-2  no change
(12) Burnt Hills     1-13  no change
(4) Queensbury     13-1 no change
(13) Mohonasen     1-13  no change
(3) Albany Leadership     9-1  no change
(14) Gloversville     0-11  no change
(6) Glens Falls     10-3  no change
(11) Lansingburgh     3-10  no change
(7) Scotia-Glenville     9-4  no change
(10) South Glens Falls     4-8  no change
(2) Holy Names     12-0  no change
(15) Bye

This hardly seems worth the effort.  Not a single change in this bracket from last week.  As you may have guessed I still disagree with it.  Averill Park deserves the #1 so far, and Troy should be #2.  Queensbury and Holy Names are essentially the same and you could flip a coin for who gets #3 and #4.  I would then probably just move Amsterdam and all the teams from the Foothills up a spot with the exception of South Glens Falls before Albany Leadership at #9.  If only Holy Names and Albany Leadership would cooperate and just lose a game things would look so much better.  I actually read a blog that said Albany Leadership lost to Hoosick Falls, but I can't find it reported anywhere.  I'll have to dig.

Class B
(1) Watervliet     13-0  no change
(16) Coxsackie-Athens     5-7  no change
(8) Ichabod Crane     8-5  up 3
(9) Schalmont     8-5  no change
(5) Fonda-Fultonville     9-3  no change
(12) Mechanicville  7-7  up 5
(4) Greenville     11-2  no change
(13) Cohoes     7-6  down 1
(3) Hudson     12-2  no change
(14) Stillwater     8-7  down 1
(6) Johnstown    10-4  up 2
(11) Corinth     7-6  down 5
(7) Hoosick Falls     9-4 no change
(10) Emma Willard     7-5  no change
(2) Tamarac     13-1  no change
(15) Voorheesville     6-7  down 1

Not rated:  Ravena, Bishop Gibbons, Chatham, Taconic Hills, Broadablin-Perth, Catskill, Albany Academy, Schuylerville, Cairo-Durham, Cobleskill, Granville

Finally some movement, but still not a whole lot of drastic changes.  I'm happy to see Johnstown slowly climbing the ranks.  I still contend the Patroon teams are rated way too high.  If the committee seeds by record as they sometimes like to do (and unfortunately this model sometimes likes to do) there are going to be some upsets early.  I actually don't like how it's currently set up.  Almost all the Colonial teams are on one side of the bracket and you would get to Wasaren teams potentially playing each other in the second round. 

If separating conferences is the reason for a misguided seeding at least I can understand it.  I think it should be done solely on merit, but I can at least accept that as a valid argument.

Class C
(1) Maple Hill     13-1  up 1
(16) Duanesburg     2-10  no change
(8) Greenwich     10-4  up 1
(9) Galway     9-5  down 3
(5) Middleburgh     9-3  down 1
(12) Mekeel Academy     5-7  up 2
(4) Canajoharie     10-3  up 4
(13) Schoharie     5-7  down 2
(3) Lake George     12-1  no change
(14) Cambridge     5-9  down 1
(6) Fort Plain     10-3  down 1
(11) Mayfield     7-7  down 1
(7) Hoosic Valley    10-4  no change
(10) Berne-Knox     8-5  no change
(2) Waterford     13-1 down 1
(15) Saratoga Catholic     4-10  no change

Not rated:  Berlin, Whitehall, Rensselaer, Hadley-Luzerne

Panic and despair.  I don't think I can go on.  Can I scrap it and start over??

Class D
(1) Fort Ann     12-1  no change
(16) Loudonville Christian     0-11  down 1
(8) New Lebanon     5-6  up 2
(9) Northville     4-9  no change
(5) Germantown     10-4  down 1
(12) Bolton     3-9  no change
(4) Warrensburg     8-4  up1
(13) Doane Stuart     2-8  no change
(3) Heatly     11-3  no change
(14) Sharon Springs     1-10  no change
(6) North Warren     8-5  up 1
(11) Hawthorne Valley     3-8  no change
(7) Hartford   7-6  down 1
(10) Argyle     5-8  down 2
(2) Fort Edward     10-2  no change
(15) St. Johnsville     1-11 up 1

Not rated:  Salem

Nothing doing here either.  The good news is Fort Ann and Fort Edward play again before the season ends so the Championship game could potentially be the rubber match!


  1. Here we go. You have to tell me what logic was used to move Canjo girls up 4 spots to fourth. What logic was used, that FP girls lost one spot to 6th? FP beat Canjo twice enough said. I wont mention the 34 lose FP put on Galway on Galways home court. The same team Canjo struggled to beat. Oh sorry I mentioned it

  2. Joe, the blog is based on a mathematical concept called regression. That is the logic I use. You may read the Methodology page if you want further detail of how it works.

    That said, I disagree with nearly every seed in the girls C bracket and stated earlier this year that if it doesn't get better I may scrap the girls Forecast until I can get enough data to do the regression analysis by class. Thanks for your comment.

  3. Believe you said last year you were going to scrap it.

  4. Perhaps I did say that and perhaps I will scrap it. That's up to me though isn't it. If you're not interested in seeing how the math works out then by all means don't read.

  5. I read your math lesson seems a little far fetched. It would be easier if you go watch some of the teams play. You know zero about most of the teams. Asfor my first comment I asked ione question and if you could explain maybe I would understand. What did Canjo do in your math problem to move four spots.?

  6. To answer your question what Canjo did was what the other four did not and that was win all their games. Middleburgh, Fort Plain, Galway and Hoosic Valley had ratings of 0.625, 0.592, 0.592 and 0.591 respectively to Canjo's 0.584. The scores were close enough that with each of the four in front of them losing games, and they themselves not, they were able to nudge their rating slightly above.

    The real problem has to do with the whole premise of the model which is based on the theory that as enrollment increases, on average (or regressing to the mean), performance increases. This has proven true in boys basketball, but not nearly to as great an extent in girls basketball. That lack of disparity for the girls is causing the model to rely nearly entirely on only two of the four variables which will never allow it to be very useful.

    My hope for not scrapping the project was twofold, one that last season was a fluke and it would fix itself and two to be fair to both fans of boys and girls basketball so they could both read the blog.

    My knowledge base of the teams is actually irrelevant for this purpose as there is nothing in the model that reflects my opinion. It's unbiased which is the point, you clearly are not and neither is anyone else who watches games, because you can't watch them all. I love watching games and wish I had more time to do so, but with a full time job, a part time job, two kids and a wife, and this blog as a hobby, it doesn't fit into my schedule.

    As for Regression being far fetched, go on Google and find out how much an Actuary makes a year. Regression and many other highly complex mathematical equations are what they use every day to calculate your car insurance rates or any other insurance rate, how much you pay in taxes and another hundred things you never think about. I prefer using it on high school basketball.

    Did I answer your question?

  7. Winning two games moves you four spots and one of those was a team D school without a win all season. FP played four games, crushed three of the four and lost to a B school by three. As for Middleburgh who the hell knows whats going on down there. There has got to be a better way.

  8. I think you should use your formula then you can tweak the results.