Sunday, January 6, 2013

Boys Basketball Sectional Forecast #2

This was a pretty quiet week despite a bunch of unexpected results from Friday with Shaker, Bethlehem and Schenectady all losing games they probably should win.  This year seems to be the most wide open class AA I can ever remember.  Every time a team steps up and wins a huge game they follow it up with a bad loss.  Despite that the brackets didn't show much movement and that actually makes me glad after just going through the Girls brackets where almost everyone did.

Class AA

(1) Green Tech  3-0
(16) Bishop Maginn  3-6     down 2
(8) Guilderland  4-3     up 2
(9) Schenectady  4-4  down 1
(5) Shaker  7-1
(12) Shenendehowa  4-1     up 1
(4) Albany Academy  1-0     down 2
(13) Colonie  4-4     down 4
(3) Bethlehem  6-1
(14) Saratoga Springs  4-4     up 2
(6) CBA  7-2
(11) LaSalle 5-4     up 4
(7) Columbia  6-1
(10) Catholic Central  4-3     up 1
(2) Troy  6-1     up 2
(15) Ballston Spa  3-5     down 3

Unranked:  Albany, Niskayuna

After the games on Friday I still think this looks about right even though there are a few changes.  Green Tech and Troy are above final four ratings and Bethlehem and Albany Academy are border line, though when the latter plays Green Tech this will change quite a bit for one of them depending on who wins.  CBA held steady at 6, but they are still the most feared 6 seed I can think of regardless of their rating.  There were a number of downward drops, but the three that beat Shaker (Guilderland), Bethlehem (Shen) and Schenectady (LaSalle) all went up at least 2 spots with Shen moving up 1.  Last week I mentioned how Shen looked really low at 13 and at 4-1 with a win over Bethlehem they still look low at 12.  The reason for this is their incredibly low MOV.  In their 5 games, they have a total MOV of 6 points (and a 4 point MOV in 6 games if you include their out of section game).  The good news for them is it can't really get any lower and still win games so they have potential for significant improvement.

Class A

(1) Scotia-Glenville  8-0
(16) Bye
(8) Queensbury  3-5
(9) Lansingburgh  3-4     down 2
(5) Gloversville  3-3     down 2
(12) Bye
(4) Mohonasen  3-5     up 2
(13) Bye
(3) Burnt Hills  3-4     up 6
(14) Bye
(6) South Glens Falls  4-3     down 2
(11) Bishop Gibbons  0-8
(7) Averill Park  2-5     down 2
(10) Amsterdam  2-6
(2) Glens Falls  4-2
(15) Bye

What can I tell you other than only three teams are above .500.  Burnt Hills moved up 6 spots to the 3 seed and increased their rating by .146.  They still aren't rated as winning a first round game, but only the top two are so what are you going to do.  One thing I usually look for here is how the Suburban A's do against the Foothills A's.  The teams in the Suburban usually have worse records because they are playing greater competition and can over perform their record in sectionals.  This year, even though they are 2-0 against the Foothills they weren't by large margins and certainly no where near what Scotia has been doing.  If someone other than Scotia wins this it would be a huge upset and would probably come from the Suburban.

Class B

(1) Catskill  10-0     up 1
(16) Greenville  2-6
(8) Mekeel Academy  3-2     up 6
(9) Taconic Hills  6-3     down 1
(5) Ichabod Crane  6-2
(12) Schalmont  5-4     down 2
(4) Watervliet  1-0     down 3
(13) Hudson  4-5     down 2
(3) Schuylerville  6-1     up 1
(14) Fonda-Fultonville  3-5     up 1
(6) Cohoes  4-3
(11) Corinth  5-3     up 1
(7) Ravena  6-2
(10) Broadalbin-Perth  3-4     down 1
(2) Cairo-Durham  6-1     up 1
(15) Tamarac  4-4     down 2

Unranked:  Johnstown, Hudson Falls, Chatham, Granville, Coxsackie-Athens, Cobleskill

The impact to Watervliet for giving up their 3 in-section wins dropped them down to #4 which seems fair at this point.  Unfortunately, I still do not know which player was ineligible for Watervliet but do know that it wasn't their best scorer and since he represents 40% of their offense and no one else is more than 12% so it may not hurt them that bad going forward.  The other notable team here is the big 6 spot jump for Mekeel Academy.  They finally won a game by a huge margin and it increased their MOV significantly.  I thought that would happen, just not so quickly.  We may see them move up another couple spots though they are still a ways back from the breaking into the top 5.

Class C

(1) Lake George  8-0
(16) Waterford  4-6
(8) Voorheesville  4-3     up 1
(9) Hoosick Falls  4-3     down 1
(5) Greenwich  6-3
(12) Fort Plain  5-3     down 5
(4) Canajoharie  8-2
(13) Maple Hill  5-5     down 3
(3) Berne-Knox  5-1
(14) Mechanicville  4-5
(6) Schoharie  6-2
(11) Rensselaer  5-5     up 1
(7) Stillwater  5-3     up 4
(10) Saratoga Catholic  5-5     up 5
(2) Hoosic Valley  8-1
(15) Mayfield  4-5     down 2

Unranked:  Berlin, Duanesburg, Whitehall, Cambridge, Middleburgh, Hadley-Luzerne, Galway

A couple big movers here with Fort Plain dropping 5 spots and Saratoga Catholic improving by 5 spots.  This is a pretty deep bracket as with the Girls, but not as packed up top.  Lake George increased their lead over Hoosic Valley and Berne-Knox cut into their deficit to Hoosic Valley.  I still think Greenwich will slide a bit after they play Schuylerville twice and Hoosick Falls, Voorheesville and Saratoga Catholic will tick up a couple more spots before it's all said and done.  Also, I looked into home court advantage.  Over the past 3 seasons, the home teams wins by an average of 2.5 points so you're basically giving the home team a 3 pointer before the game even starts.  If you adjusted Lake George's win downward to 14 and Hoosic Valley's up to 10 they are nearly identical.  I may start tracking this more carefully and if the trend holds up may start including it into the model at some future date.

Class D

(1) Argyle  8-0
(16) Sharon Springs  0-4     down 1
(8) St. Johnsville  2-4     up 1
(9) Heatly 4-4     down 1
(5) Fort Ann  4-3     down 1
(12) Warrensburg  3-5
(4) Germantown  4-3     up 1
(13) Fort Edward  0-6
(3) North Warren  7-1
(14) Hawthorne Valley  1-4
(6) Northville  6-4
(11) Salem  3-5
(7) Hartford  4-3
(10) Doane Stuart  3-4
(2) Loudonville Christian  8-0
(15) Bolton  0-8    up 1

Unranked: New Lebanon

I am still in complete agreement with this one.  Although I'm surprised Argyle hasn't run away with it like Fort Edward has in the Girls' bracket.  They are still a pretty good favorite, but not as much as I would have thought given their current dominance.  Germantown and Fort Ann flipped home court advantage in the second round as did St. Johnsville and Heatly in their opening round game.  If there were a true dark horse in this bracket I would say it's St. Johnsville.  They beat Saratoga Catholic and have played almost everyone really close.  I don't see them beating Argyle in round 2, but if they can manage to move up a couple spots you could see a potential run for them.

There was a minor adjustment made to the model in how to calculate the expected winning percentage based on MOV, but overall it had a very limited impact.  I had used a different methodology for that variable than I did for all the others and for matter of consistency I made the change.  The change was not made to the Girls' brackets so that will be updated for next week's run.  There's a big slate this week as we move back into full swing so I'm looking forward to another week of upsets and changes to the brackets.

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