Friday, January 25, 2013

Girls Basketball Sectional Forecast #5

I made a slight adjustment this week to the model.  Because I include the current season's games into the historical data, I have to re-calibrate where the breaks are with regards to enrollment variance within the expected win percentages.  It was only a slight tweak and it didn't appear to have much impact, but thought I'd let you know for full disclosure.  Happy forecasting.  Sectional Forecast #5.

Class AA

(1) Bethlehem  12-0     up 1
(16) Bye
(8) Columbia  6-7     up 1
(9) Guilderland  6-5     down 1
(5) Catholic Central  9-4
(12) Ballston Spa  1-12
(4) Colonie  10-3
(13) Schenectady  0-11
(3) Shaker  10-1
(14) Bye
(6) Shenendehowa  6-4
(11) Niskayuna  1-10
(7) Bishop Maginn  7-7
(10) Saratoga Springs  5-8
(2) Albany  10-0     down 1
(15) Bye

Here is an instance where the tweak in the model made a slight difference.  Because the greater seeds have been winning at a greater rate this year than last, Albany sacrificed some of their variance between opponent's actual win percentage and expected win percentage.  Bethlehem is now almost a full tenth better than Albany and given their rather impressive win against Shaker, I'm not sure I can forcefully disagree.  I do believe it will be these two teams in the final, with Colonie the biggest threat of upsetting either of them.  After  Catholic Central the ratings drop off quite a bit and I don't think there are any real contenders there.

Class A

(1) Troy  8-2
(16) Bye
(8) Mohonasen  5-8
(9) Amsterdam  4-6
(5) Glens Falls  7-3
(12) Bye
(4) Averill Park  10-3     down 1
(13) Bye
(3) Queensbury  9-3     up 1
(14) Bye
(6) South Glens Falls  9-4     up 1
(11) Lansingburgh  0-12
(7) Scotia-Glenville  5-8     down 1
(10) Burnt Hills  2-11
(2) Holy Names  12-0
(15) Bye

The model didn't heed my advice and stuck Averill Park right in the middle of Queensbury and Glens Falls even after they beat Shen tonight.  I don't really agree with that, but it's still really close and Averill Park will pick up some points in their opponent's expected vs. actual win percentage this week, and possibly a lot if they can win one of the games.  As of now the model has Troy and Holy Names pretty far ahead of everyone else so it may not make much of a difference.  I think this will be the final as well and much like AA I don't see a whole lot that might change that.  Perhaps the most disappointing story of this year is Scotia's drop off after losing their leading scorer.  They might have been able to make a run, but that doesn't seem likely now.

Class B

(1) Tamarac  13-1
(16) Catskill  5-8     down 1
(8) Cohoes  8-4     up 1
(9) Schalmont  8-4     up 1
(5) Greenville  7-5     up 1
(12) Johnstown  5-7
(4) Ravena  8-4
(13) Hudson Falls 5-8     up 1
(3) Taconic Hills  11-2
(14) Fonda-Fultonville  4-8     down 1
(6) Corinth  8-5     up 1
(11) Emma Willard  7-5     down 3
(7) Broadalbin-Perth  8-5     down 2
(10) Hudson  8-5     up 1
(2) Watervliet  11-1
(15) Ichabod Crane 4-8     up 1

Unranked:  Granville, Albany Leadership, Bishop Gibbons, Coxsackie-Athens, Schuylerville, Cobleskill, Chatham, Cairo-Durham

Hardly any movement here as there were hardly any games played this week.  A little bit of shuffling around but only a spot or two.  I still think Corinth is too high but maybe I'm missing something.  Every one of their losses were against good teams, though most of them are D schools.  I would probably have them 9 or 10 and just move everyone else up one.  With Tamarac's win over Hoosic Valley tonight they have cleared their last big hurdle so this may be what it looks like in 3 weeks.  Like the A and AA, according to the model, the final looks to be set between Tamarac and Watervliet.  Taconic Hills is fairly close but I don't think the Patroon matches up to the Wasaren and Colonial this year.  The biggest threat after that is Ravena but they just lost to Watervliet by 6.

Class C

(1) Berne-Knox  10-1     up 1
(16) Greenwich 6-7     previously unranked
(8) Hoosick Falls  9-4     down 1
(9) Galway  9-4     up 1
(5) Hoosic Valley  11-3
(12) Mechanicville  7-5
(4) Maple Hill  13-1
(13) Canajoharie  7-6
(3) Fort Plain  11-1
(14) Whitehall  6-5
(6) Lake George  10-3     up 2
(11) Duanesburg  7-4
(7) Middleburgh  7-4     down 1
(10) Mekeel Academy 7-6     down 1
(2) Waterford  12-2     down 1
(15) Voorheesville 5-6

Unranked:  Albany Academy, Mayfield, Stillwater, Saratoga Catholic, Berlin, Hadley-Luzerne, Rensselaer, Cambridge, Schoharie

I'm happier this week as Waterford isn't #1 anymore.  I still don't think they are #2, but at this point I don't see it changing especially with Hoosic Valley's loss tonight.  This is a really good bracket and might be the most fun to watch of all Section 2.  The first 5 teams are all really good and have good ratings and no one has a final four rating at this point.  This will be my favorite one to scoreboard watch.  Just for fun, I took out Hoosic Valley's loss to Scotia as I have contended that game is killing their rating.  They essentially lost to a team that no longer exists, but due to injury not a rules' violation like the boys Watervliet team.  Their rating increases by .052 and they move into the #3 seed.  While I still think they would beat Waterford head to head, I'd be ok with that arrangement.  I'm not sure how the Girls sectionals work and whether or not that game would be on a neutral floor but so long as it was, it wouldn't matter who was the higher seed anyway.

Class D

(1) Fort Edward  11-0
(16) St. Johnsville  0-9
(8) Warrensburg  5-6
(9) New Lebanon  4-6     up 1
(5) Germantown  6-4
(12) Bolton  2-9     up 2
(4) Heatly  10-3
(13) Sharon Springs  0-8     down 1
(3) Argyle  9-4
(14) Doane Stuart  2-9     down 1
(6) Loudonville Christian  5-5
(11) North Warren  4-9     down 2
(7) Hartford  3-8
(10) Northville 5-8     up 1
(2) Fort Ann  11-1
(15) Salem  1-11

Unranked:   Hawthorne Valley

Fort Edward remains the heavy favorite after beating Argyle tonight by double digits.  They only won their first meeting by 1 point so this is an improvement for them.  Argyle must match up really well against Fort Edward as they have lost the two games by a combined 13 points and lost to Fort Ann by 20 in their only meeting.  Fort Edward beat Fort Ann by 25 in their only meeting this year.  Argyle might be the biggest threat Fort Edward will see in the sectionals.

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