Saturday, January 26, 2013

Boys Basketball Sectional Forecast #5

Unlike in the girls' brackets, there were no changes to the model's internals this week.  Since there are significantly more games in that database there would need to be fairly substantial change in the trend for the cut off numbers to change.  Happy forecasting. Sectional Forecast #5.

Class AA

(1) Troy  11-1
(16) Niskayuna 1-10
(8) Schenectady  7-5
(9) Shenendehowa 8-2     up 1
(5) Shaker  11-2
(12) Ballston Spa  5-8     up 3
(4) CBA  11-2
(13) Colonie  6-7     down 2
(3) Bethlehem  10-2
(14) Catholic Central  5-7     down 1
(6) Columbia  8-4     up 1
(11) Bishop Maginn  6-7     up 1
(7) Guilderland  7-4     down 1
(10) LaSalle 7-6     down 1
(2) Green Tech  5-0
(15) Saratoga Springs 6-7     down 1

Unranked:  Albany, Albany Academy (not participating)

After a brief respite from #1, Troy has ever so slightly surpassed Green Tech yet again.  Both of these teams are really close and it could very well hinge on the Albany Academy games against Green Tech to settle it.  Both Troy and Green Tech are remarkably close to the finals rating, but are still shy.  With Bethlehem's loss to Shaker this week, they have dropped down quite a bit and probably no longer have a chance for a final four ranking.  At this point Troy and Green Tech are the favorites and I can see it staying that way.

Class A

(1) Scotia-Glenville  13-0
(16) Bye
(8) Queensbury  6-7     up 1
(9) Mohonasen  3-9     down 1
(5) Averill Park  5-8     up 1
(12) Bye
(4) South Glens Falls  8-4
(13) Bye
(3) Burnt Hills  5-6
(14) Bye
(6) Lansingburgh  6-6     up 1
(11) Bishop Gibbons  1-12
(7) Gloversville  5-7     down 2
(10) Amsterdam  3-10
(2) Glens Falls  8-3
(15) Bye

Gloversville had a bad week losing two games and dropping two slots to #7.  Glens Falls remains in second even though I believe Burnt Hills should be ahead of them.  Two of Glens Falls' remaining games are against Scotia and South Glens Falls, both of which were losses the first time through.  If they repeat that performance I think you'll see Burnt Hills move ahead.  In South Glens Falls' four remaining league games, excluding Scotia, they went 3-1 the first time through, but only won by a combined 8 points.  Second place in the Foothills could come right down to the wire and depending on how it falls, may be the #3 seed in sectionals.

Class B

(1) Watervliet  6-0
(16) Chatham 3-10     previously unranked
(8) Ichabod Crane  7-6     up 2
(9) Broadalbin-Perth  5-8     down 1
(5) Catskill  13-1     down 1
(12) Fonda-Fultonville  4-8
(4) Schuylerville  12-1     down 1
(13) Corinth  6-7
(3) Mekeel Academy  10-2     up 2
(14) Schalmont  6-8
(6) Cohoes  7-4
(11) Taconic Hills  6-6
(7) Ravena  9-4
(10) Hudson  8-6     down 1
(2) Cairo-Durham  10-1
(15) Tamarac  4-8

Unranked:  Johnstown, Hudson Falls, Greenville, Granville, Coxsackie-Athens, Cobleskill

Last week I said there was a chance Mekeel Academy could move into second this week and I was wrong, by .005.  They are currently in third, .004 behind Cairo-Durham.  After losing to Mayfield the first game of the year, Mekeel beat them by 20 this week to avenge one of their two losses.  That being said, they only moved into third by .005 over Schuylerville.  Before this is said and done, I do believe Mekeel will move into second and stay there and the fight will be between Cairo-Durham and Schuylerville for #3 and #4.  Schuylerville still has two tough games on their schedule in Hoosic Valley and Cohoes and given their close proximity to Catskill at #5, they could theoretically drop down with a loss or even two.  For the record I don't think they'll lose either.

Class C

(1) Lake George  12-1
(16) Waterford  6-7
(8) Saratoga Catholic  8-6     up 1
(9) Voorheesville  6-5     down 1
(5) Berne-Knox  9-4     down 2
(12) Rensselaer  7-6     down 2
(4) Greenwich  10-4     up 1
(13) Mayfield  7-7
(3) Canajoharie  13-2     up 1
(14) Maple Hill  8-6
(6) Schoharie  11-3
(11) Fort Plain  7-5     up 1
(7) Stillwater  8-5
(10) Mechanicville  7-6     up 1
(2) Hoosic Valley  13-1
(15) Hoosick Falls  5-7

Unranked:  Berlin, Duanesburg, Whitehall, Cambridge, Middleburgh, Hadley-Luzerne, Galway

This is the scariest bracket for me running a "prediction" model.  The Colonial teams are always a threat and this year may be no different, but the model isn't showing that.  Whether or not that is right we will find out, but if you look at Mechanicville and Voorheesville's schedules, I'm not sure they are as impressive as first looks might suggest.  Mechanicville's big wins are Cohoes, Stillwater and Mekeel Academy.  The last of those was early in the season when Mekeel was obviously not the same team they are now.  Stillwater is the #7 seed currently and it was a 3 point game.  They too are playing better now than they were then, as evidenced by the 17 point loss to Schuylerville early and only 8 point loss last week.  Discounting those two, you have Cohoes, which was a two point win.  There aren't too many holes to poke in this one as Schuylerville also beat Cohoes by 2 points and they beat Hoosic Valley by 20.  Schuylerville plays both again pretty soon so we'll see where we stand on that coming up.  One other note, the 3 point loss to Watevliet was coming a day after a scandal, and with Watervliet missing arguably their 2nd and 3rd best players (one of which caused the scandal).

Voorheesville's big wins were against Mechanicville (#10), Ravena (lost to Cohoes by 18) and Spa Catholic (#8).  Their two close losses to Berne-Knox (#5) and Stillwater (#7).  Neither team has won a game against anyone ranked higher than 6th in any of their respective brackets.  All that being said, it still scares me.

Class D

(1) Argyle  13-0
(16) Sharon Springs 0-9
(8) St. Johnsville  6-8     down 2
(9) Heatly 7-6     down 1
(5) Germantown  8-4     down 1
(12) Warrensburg  4-8
(4) Fort Ann  9-3     up 1
(13) Fort Edward  1-9
(3) North Warren  10-2
(14) Hawthorne Valley  1-8
(6) Hartford  6-5     up 1
(11) Salem  4-8
(7) Northville  6-8     up 2
(10) Doane Stuart  6-6
(2) Loudonville Christian  12-0
(15) Bolton  0-12

Unranked: New Lebanon

I'm having a hard time writing anything about this bracket as it seems like a foregone conclusion.  Despite what the ratings say, this feels like there will be no contest.  Loudonville Christian all but wrapped up the CHVL title beating Germantown this week so there is a glimmer of hope, but it doesn't seem likely to me.

Next week I intend to put up an update on the State of the Section for both boys and girls basketball going league by league to see where we stand in the race for league championships, so stay tuned.

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