Friday, January 18, 2013

Girls Basketball Sectional Forecast #4

There was a bit more stability in the larger schools this week with only a few moving parts, but the small schools continue to test my patience.  I have to keep reminding myself I only have one year's data in the Girls' model.  That lack of data is continuing to show its ugly head in the B's and most notably the C's.  I would hold my breath for it to change, but I'm liable be dead before it happens.  Regardless, a lot more games this week and more useful information for the model.  Happy forecasting.  Sectional Forecast #4.

Class AA

(1) Albany  9-0
(16) Bye
(8) Guilderland  5-5     up 1
(9) Columbia  5-7     down 1
(5) Catholic Central  8-3
(12) Ballston Spa  1-11     down 1
(4) Colonie  9-3
(13) Schenectady  0-10     down 1
(3) Shaker  10-0
(14) Bye
(6) Shenendehowa  6-3
(11) Niskayuna  1-9     up 2
(7) Bishop Maginn  7-6
(10) Saratoga Springs  5-7
(2) Bethlehem  11-0
(15) Bye

Colonie took a big hit with their loss to Shaker but maintained their #4 ranking.  In fact they only lost .003 to Shaker at #3 and .007 to Catholic Central at #5.  Things have really stabilized with the first 7 seeds holding their slots.  Unless Bethlehem or Shaker lose to someone other than each other the top six probably won't have much movement.  One interesting note here is that if you line up all the teams by winning percentage, they would be in exactly the same order.  That obviously doesn't separate the undefeated teams, but that's what the model is for.  Most of the AA schools play most of their schedules against other AA's so there isn't a great differentiation in expected win percentages.  That means, at this point in time, there isn't much for the model to tell us differently from their records.

Class A

(1) Troy  7-2
(16) Bye
(8) Mohonasen  4-8
(9) Amsterdam  4-6
(5) Glens Falls  7-3     down 2
(12) Bye
(4) Queensbury  8-3     up 1
(13) Bye
(3) Averill Park  9-3     up 1
(14) Bye
(6) Scotia-Glenville  5-6     up 1
(11) Lansingburgh  0-12
(7) South Glens Falls  8-4     down 1
(10) Burnt Hills  2-10
(2) Holy Names  11-0
(15) Bye

Averill Park moved ahead of Glens Falls into #3, though it only took one Glens Falls loss not the 2 or 3 I said last week.  This could very well flip right back next week as Averill Park faces Shen next Friday, Bethlehem the following Tuesday and Colonie three days after that.  Depending on how Glens Falls and Queensbury finish out their schedules, Averill Park will probably need to win one if not two of those games to be the #3.  I would have them at #3 regardless of the model because the Foothills teams are all so closely matched you can't very well stick Averill Park in the middle of them and come up with a solid justification for it.  It's hard enough finding a rationale for putting South Glens Falls, Queensbury and Glens Falls in any order  at all.  I couldn't even begin to tell you who is the best of those three and I'm pessimistic it will be sorted out by the end of the year either.  The only thing I can tell you for certain is that Scotia should be behind all of them due to injury.

Class B

(1) Tamarac  12-1     up 1
(16) Ichabod Crane 4-8     down 2
(8) Emma Willard  6-5
(9) Cohoes  8-4     up 2
(5) Broadalbin-Perth  7-4     up 1
(12) Johnstown  5-6     up 1
(4) Ravena  8-4     up 1
(13) Fonda-Fultonville  4-8     down 1
(3) Taconic Hills  11-2
(14) Hudson Falls 3-8     previously unranked
(6) Greenville  7-5     down 2
(11) Hudson  8-5     down 2
(7) Corinth  8-4     up 3
(10) Schalmont  8-4     down 3
(2) Watervliet  11-1     down 1
(15) Catskill  5-8     up 1

Unranked:  Granville, Albany Leadership, Bishop Gibbons, Coxsackie-Athens, Schuylerville, Cobleskill, Chatham, Cairo-Durham

This one surprised me a bit with Tamarac overtaking Watervliet.  This is almost entirely due to Tamarac's edge in MOV.  Last week Watervliet had the edge in expected win percentage from MOV by .088 this week, Tamarac has flipped that and is leading Watervliet by .024.  The amazing thing about this bracket is that seeds 4 through 11, with the exception of Emma Willard all have 7 or 8 wins.  Cohoes has moved up 5 spots in the last two weeks.  I'm a bit disappointed that both Emma Willard and Corinth are above a couple of the Colonial teams.  I would certainly not put an 8-4 team from the Adirondack ahead of two 8-4 teams from the Colonial.  Still 4 through 12 are extremely close and I would expect a bit more movement before it's over.

Class C

(1) Waterford  11-2     up 1
(16) Schoharie 5-6     previously unranked
(8) Lake George  9-3     down 2
(9) Mekeel Academy 6-5     up 2
(5) Hoosic Valley  11-2
(12) Mechanicville  7-5     up 1
(4) Maple Hill  12-1     down 1
(13) Canajoharie  7-5     down 1
(3) Fort Plain  9-1     up 1
(14) Whitehall  5-5     up 1
(6) Middleburgh  7-3     up 1
(11) Duanesburg  7-4     down 2
(7) Hoosick Falls  8-4     up 1
(10) Galway  8-4
(2) Berne-Knox  8-1     down 1
(15) Voorheesville 5-6     up 1

Unranked:  Albany Academy, Mayfield, Stillwater, Saratoga Catholic, Berlin, Hadley-Luzerne, Rensselaer, Cambridge, Greenwich

This bracket is starting to upset me a little bit.  Waterford has taken over the top spot almost entirely on their expected win percentage from MOV.  This is the sort of thing the model is supposed to correct, where a team pounds bad teams into submission but doesn't face any tough competition, or loses to those it does face.  There are two things that are keeping Waterford ahead right now, the one is their MOV, the other is that no other team in the CHVL is very good so their expected win percentages are all roughly where they should be.  So even though they are playing poor competition, the model isn't picking it up, whereas Hoosic Valley is being hurt by their loss to Scotia early in the season prior to Scotia's big injury.  Since Scotia is now under-performing to historical standards, that loss looks worse than it actually was.  The only positive is that Waterford is almost maxed out on their score and the next four teams are fairly close, so things could turn around.  I'm not optimistic but you never know.  Without the model I would go Hoosic Valley, Maple Hill, Berne-Knox, Waterford, Middleburgh, Hoosick Falls, Lake George.

Class D

(1) Fort Edward  10-0
(16) St. Johnsville  0-8
(8) Warrensburg  4-6     up 1
(9) North Warren  4-8     down 1
(5) Germantown  6-4
(12) Sharon Springs  0-7
(4) Heatly  9-2
(13) Doane Stuart  2-8
(3) Argyle  9-3
(14) Bolton  1-9     up 1
(6) Loudonville Christian  4-5     up 1
(11) Northville 5-7     down 1
(7) Hartford  3-7     down 1
(10) New Lebanon  4-6     up 1
(2) Fort Ann  10-1
(15) Salem  1-10     down 1

Unranked:   Hawthorne Valley

The only notable item here is that Fort Edward's score dropped a ton, so Fort Ann is a lot closer than they have ever been to this point.  I believe Fort Edward plays Argyle this upcoming week so that should increase things a bit, unless of course they lose.  Fort Edward's opponents expected win percentage took a nosedive which caused their total score to drop.  Even with that, they still are a huge favorite and I don't expect that to change.

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