Saturday, January 19, 2013

Boys Basketball Sectional Forecast #4

The big bit of news this week is that Albany Academy will not be participating in sectionals this year.  For the sake of this forecast I have removed them entirely.  It doesn't do very much good showing where they would be when they aren't going to be.  I have kept them in as a Section 2 team so all of their games are counted as in-section games because they are technically a Section 2 team.  In case you were wondering, they would be the #3 seed in AA and #2 in A.  Happy forecasting. Sectional Forecast #4.

Class AA

(1) Troy  10-1
(16) Niskayuna 1-9     previously unranked
(8) Schenectady  6-5     up 2
(9) LaSalle 7-5
(5) Shaker  10-2
(12) Bishop Maginn  6-7     down 1
(4) CBA  10-2     up 2
(13) Catholic Central  5-6     up 1
(3) Bethlehem  10-1     up 1
(14) Saratoga Springs 6-6     up 1
(6) Guilderland  7-4     up 2
(11) Colonie  6-6     up 2
(7) Columbia  7-4
(10) Shenendehowa 7-2     up 2
(2) Green Tech  3-0
(15) Ballston Spa  4-8     up 1

Unranked:  Albany, Albany Academy (not participating)

Troy put a little bit more distance between themselves and the rest of the field, not enough at this point to make them a lock for #1 even with another loss.  CBA moved up two spots this week, one from the departure of Albany Academy from the rankings and one from Shaker's loss to Colonie.  Shaker actually didn't lose any seeding remaining at #5, but they did lose .089 from their ranking leaving them only about 50% of the way of having a score high enough for a second round win.  The most interesting thing to me about this field is that no one to date has separated themselves from the others.  With the exception of Green Tech (who has only played 3 in-section games, but have also lost out of section), each contender has lost a game they should have or could have won.  They all have flaws that have been exposed.  This bracket as much as any will probably come down to match-ups and how they final bracket looks.  You could very well see some first round upsets from this group and I don't believe it would be all that shocking.  I could easily see neither of the top two seeds making the final.

Class A

(1) Scotia-Glenville  12-0
(16) Bye
(8) Mohonasen  3-9     down 4
(9) Queensbury  5-7     down 2
(5) Gloversville  5-5     up 1
(12) Bye
(4) South Glens Falls  7-4     up 1
(13) Bye
(3) Burnt Hills  5-6
(14) Bye
(6) Averill Park  4-7     up 3
(11) Bishop Gibbons  1-11
(7) Lansingburgh  5-6     up 1
(10) Amsterdam  2-10
(2) Glens Falls  7-3
(15) Bye

You should re-read last week's assessment as virtually nothing from it has changed.  I still think Burnt Hills should be the #2 and just might get there if Glens Falls drops a game they shouldn't .  Burnt Hills' expected win percentage will go down as they have a few of the bigger schools still to play, but I think they'll need to play better than .500 from here on out to overtake Glens Falls if they win their winnable games.  Also, Averill Park was scheduled to play Gloversville tonight but that score isn't in the calculation as I don't have it yet.  The model right now says Gloversville is better, we'll see if it's right.

Class B

(1) Watervliet  5-0     up 1
(16) Greenville  3-9
(8) Broadalbin-Perth  5-6
(9) Hudson  7-6     up 4
(5) Mekeel Academy  8-2
(12) Fonda-Fultonville  4-7     up 2
(4) Catskill  13-1     down 3
(13) Corinth  6-6     down 2
(3) Schuylerville  10-1
(14) Schalmont  6-7     down 2
(6) Cohoes  6-4     up 1
(11) Taconic Hills  6-6     down 1
(7) Ravena  8-3     down 1
(10) Ichabod Crane  6-6     down 1
(2) Cairo-Durham  10-1     up 2
(15) Tamarac  4-7

Unranked:  Johnstown, Hudson Falls, Chatham, Granville, Coxsackie-Athens, Cobleskill

I was wrong about the Catskill, Cairo-Durham game with CD taking the win and moving up 2 spots in the process.  Watervliet moved into #1 and their destiny is now in their hands.  Even with a loss to Albany Academy I think the model will keep them ahead if only slightly.  Their score moved up almost a full point and are now over a full point ahead of 2nd place.  Catskill's score dropped by .050 off of their loss so we'll see how that plays out.  There is the potential for Mekeel Academy to move into 2nd place next week.  That would be a big jump, but seeds 2-5 are extremely close and two more wins would move their winning percentage and correspondingly their variance of win percentage to expected win percentage up over another .100.  That just might be enough to push them past everyone but Watervliet.  Cohoes, Ravena and Broadalbin-Perth scare me a bit because they are all quality teams that can play with any one of the top 5 if not beat them.  Lots of chances for upsets in the first half of this bracket, meaning in the second round.

Class C

(1) Lake George  11-1
(16) Waterford  5-7
(8) Voorheesville  6-4  
(9) Saratoga Catholic  7-6     up 3
(5) Greenwich  9-4
(12) Fort Plain  6-5     down 2
(4) Canajoharie  12-2
(13) Mayfield  6-6     up 1
(3) Berne-Knox  8-3
(14) Maple Hill  8-6     down 1
(6) Schoharie  8-3     up 1
(11) Mechanicville  6-6
(7) Stillwater  8-4     down 1
(10) Rensselaer  7-6     down 1
(2) Hoosic Valley  11-1
(15) Hoosick Falls  4-7

Unranked:  Berlin, Duanesburg, Whitehall, Cambridge, Middleburgh, Hadley-Luzerne, Galway

I just wrote an entire paragraph on how Lake George locked this thing up because their scores barely moved this week with Hoosic Valley only picking up .011, they are still sitting .078 behind Lake George.  The reason for this?  Lake George played Argyle who is undefeated, so their opponents expected win percentage went up .118 offsetting the loss.  But as I looked back at the model, I'm not so convinced anymore and I'm starting to think it may come down the wire and tighten as the games go on.  Lake George only plays one more team with a winning record the rest of the year while Hoosic Valley plays three so even the a loss to Schuylerville might not be as detrimental as I originally thought.  This bracket remains interesting with perhaps the most telling game of the week coming tonight.  The current #8 Voorheesville played and lost to the current #3 Berne-Knox by 4 points.  Everyone, including myself, always says how you should watch out for the Colonial C's, but they had their chance tonight and lost.  I know it was very close, but I'm not as worried about the model having them #8 with 4 really good teams between them and the team they just lost to by 4.  These teams are still pretty close in the model so there is a chance for some more movement between them before it's said and done.

Class D

(1) Argyle  12-0
(16) Sharon Springs 0-8     previously unranked
(8) Heatly 7-4
(9) Northville  6-7     down 3
(5) Fort Ann  8-3
(12) Warrensburg  4-7
(4) Germantown  7-3
(13) Fort Edward  1-8
(3) North Warren  9-2
(14) Hawthorne Valley  1-7
(6) St. Johnsville  6-4     up 1
(11) Salem  4-8
(7) Hartford  6-4     up 2
(10) Doane Stuart  5-5
(2) Loudonville Christian  10-0
(15) Bolton  0-11

Unranked: New Lebanon

I honestly don't see how anyone can beat Argyle in this field and probably in the C's either.  Joey Lufkin is just ridiculous and I don't think anyone in this bracket will be able to stop him or the rest of the Argyle team. The battle for runner-up should be interesting though and I could see a couple of the lower seeds making a run.  The good thing about this bracket as it is currently situated is that all of those teams are in the other side of the bracket from Argyle so at least there should be some good games along the way.  If there was one game I would want to watch in this bracket it would be the #3, #6 match-up in the second round.  Both North Warren and St. Johnsville have been competitive all year and I think it could be the best game in the D tournament.

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