Girls Basketball Sectional Forecast #2

Lots of changes this week and with more games, albeit only a few, you can already see the model coming more into focus.  As I mentioned in the Boys forecast last week, I expect the Girls' forecast to be a little more volatile even if the games play out as one would expect.  This is mainly to do with the lack of prior year data.  Sectional Forecast #2.

Class AA

(1) Bethlehem  7-0
(16) Bye
(8) Columbia  5-3     up 1
(9) Guilderland  3-3     down 3
(5) Catholic Central  6-3     up 3
(12) Schenectady  0-7     up 1
(4) Colonie  6-2
(13) Niskayuna  1-5     down 1
(3) Shaker  6-0
(14) Bye
(6) Bishop Maginn  6-3     down 1
(11) Ballston Spa  1-7    
(7) Shenendehowa  3-2
(10) Saratoga Springs  3-5
(2) Albany  6-0
(15) Bye

The big mover in this group was Catholic Central and that was because of my error.  I had one of their wins a loss and naturally that changes things a bit.  The top four all stayed the same and all but Bethlehem improved their overall rating.  Bethlehem and Albany are still the only two with ratings above the final four, but Shaker and Colonie are both close enough to be considered real threats by the model given their proximity to the top two.

Class A

(1) Troy  5-1
(16) Bye
(8) Mohonasen  3-5
(9) Amsterdam  2-5
(5) Averill Park  5-3
(12) Bye
(4) Queensbury  6-1
(13) Bye
(3) Holy Names  7-0     down 1
(14) Bye
(6) Scotia-Glenville  4-3     up 1
(11) Lansingburgh  0-8
(7) South Glens Falls  6-2     down 1
(10) Burnt Hills  1-7
(2) Glens Falls  4-2     up 1
(15) Bye

Curiously Holy Names lost some position to Glens Falls even though Holy Names won a game this week and Glens Falls didn't even play.  This has to do with Queensbury also playing an winning.  Every time a team Glens Falls plays and wins it increases their own rating.  Eventually they will play all the teams in their league and if they lose a few, their rating will drop accordingly.  If they win them and stay ahead of Queensbury then all I can do is chalk it up to matching up poorly against Queensbury.  This one has yet to play itself out but regardless of how it finishes, Troy is still the clear favorite at this point in time.

Class B

(1) Watervliet  7-1
(16) Ichabod Crane 2-6     previously unranked
(8) Schalmont  6-2     up 2
(9) Corinth  5-2
(5) Emma Willard  5-2     up 1
(12) Hudson  5-4     up 2
(4) Greenville  6-2     up 1
(13) Johnstown  3-4
(3) Taconic Hills  7-2     down 1
(14) Cohoes  5-3     up 1
(6) Broadalbin-Perth  5-3     up 2
(11) Fonda-Fultonville  3-5     down 4
(7) Ravena  5-3     down 3    
(10) Cobleskill  4-4     up 1
(2) Tamarac  8-1     up 1
(15) Catskill  4-6     down 3

Unranked:  Granville, Albany Leadership, Bishop Gibbons, Coxsackie-Athens, Schuylerville, Hudson Falls, Chatham, Cairo-Durham

A ton of movement in this one and that will probably be the trend as most of the teams are in the same two conferences and will play each other frequently.  The top three stayed the same, though Tamarac flipped ahead of Taconic Hills.  They are still remarkably close and I wouldn't be shocked if that order remained in question until the end.  Watervliet has inched ever so close to the final four rating and will probably get there in the coming week.  Much like Troy, they are the clear favorite at the moment though not overwhelmingly so.

Class C

(1) Berne-Knox  5-1     up 7
(16) Voorheesville 3-4     previously unranked
(8) Duanesburg  5-2     up 1
(9) Hoosick Falls  5-3     up 1
(5) Hoosic Valley  7-2     up 1
(12) Greenwich  4-4     down 1
(4) Waterford  6-2     down 1
(13) Whitehall  2-3
(3) Fort Plain  7-0     down 2
(14) Mechanicville  4-4     up 1
(6) Middleburgh  4-2     down 1
(11) Mekeel Academy 3-4     up 1
(7) Lake George  7-1     down 3
(10) Galway  4-3     down 3
(2) Maple Hill  9-1
(15) Canajoharie  4-5     down 1

Unranked:  Albany Academy, Mayfield, Stillwater, Saratoga Catholic, Berlin, Hadley-Luzerne, Rensselaer, Cambridge, Schoharie

This bracket is still packed and there was a ton of ups and downs this week with the biggest being the 7 spot jump from Berne-Knox.  One 40 point win can do a lot for your average MOV and it was enough to improve their rating to the top.  This will probably be the trend as the first 6 teams are closer together than both Troy and Watervliet are to the second teams in their brackets.  With the first 7 closer than Watervliet is to their number 2.  This bracket is legitimately six deep and could have all representing different leagues or league divisions and has the potential to be a bracket buster as none of them are rated as final four quality teams.  Whoever comes out of this mess will definitely have earned it.

Class D

(1) Fort Edward  6-0
(16) Sharon Springs  0-3     down 2
(8) North Warren  3-4     up 2
(9) Northville  4-5
(5) Loudonville Christian  3-2
(12) Salem  1-5
(4) Heatly  6-2     down 1
(13) Doane Stuart  1-6
(3) Argyle  4-2     down 1
(14) Bolton  0-7     up 1
(6) Germantown  2-3
(11) New Lebanon  2-5
(7) Hartford  2-4     up 1
(10) Warrensburg  3-4     down 3
(2) Fort Ann  6-1     up 2
(15) St. Johnsville  0-4     up 1

Unranked:   Hawthorne Valley

This remains the least interesting bracket in Girls basketball with Fort Edward's rating still above 1 meaning they are above the Champion level.  It increased by .04 as well which isn't a huge increase but as so few teams get to this level, any increase is an accomplishment.  The margin between Fort Edward and Fort Ann is greater than Berne-Knox is to the 19th ranked team in C, greater than Watervliet is to the 13th ranked team in B, greater than Troy is to the 7th ranked team in A and greater than Bethlehem is to the 9th team in AA.  At this point, it's Fort Edward's to lose.