Here is the completed COA for the boys. You’ll notice several upsets in AA which again goes back to the CBA-Bethlehem game. If you include all the first round games into the analysis (which I can’t for my official predictions) CBA wins by 2 instead of losing by 6 to Guilderland. Troy loses by 2 instead of 6 to Bethlehem. Even if Troy and CBA were to advance, they would both lose to Shaker and Green Tech respectively using the COA so the results wouldn’t change overall. Doing the analysis this way, Green Tech is clearly the best team in AA and it really doesn’t matter who they play. Their biggest test will have to be in CBA who has the experience to offset any talent or age gaps (if there are any). There are still several really good games left in this bracket and it should be entertaining all the way through.
There is also an interesting case in the A bracket where Averill Park and Glens Falls play in the second round. There are three cases where they played the same team and three cases where a team is once removed, where an opponent’ opponent played the other team. In the first, Averill Park wins by 17, in the second Glens Falls wins by 25. We’ll see which is right or if the average is a better predictor.
In the B bracket, almost every single game after the first round is less than 10 points, which basically means it can go either way. So far, the average variance between what I have calculated using this method and what actually happened is 12 points in either direction. This has the potential to be a very exciting tournament.
The C bracket is even more of a mess than the B. I have had to do multiple contingency calculations because almost every game, even in the first round, calculates to less than 10. Twelve of the fifteen games are below ten points and four are below five.
The opposite is true in the D bracket where only three of the games are less than ten. The interesting thing here is how poorly the CHVL compares. Granted, they are mostly using five team comps but I use what I can. We’ll see how it plays out. For the record, the standings I posted yesterday will be using the current match-up calculations, not this bracket. I’m working on the girls’ bracket as well. That should be done soon.
|S2||Shenendehowa||Shenendehowa||25||Green Tech||18||Green Tech||39|
|5||South Glens Falls||South Glens Falls||South Glens Falls||1|
|3||Glens Falls||Glens Falls||Glens Falls||4||Burnt Hills||18|
|11||Bishop Gibbons||Averill Park||25|
|2||Burnt Hills||Burnt Hills|
|3||Mekeel Academy||Mekeel Academy||34||Mekeel Academy||9||Mekeel Academy||3|
|1||Hoosic Valley||Hoosic Valley||26||Hoosic Valley||7||Hoosic Valley||7|
|15||Saratoga Catholic||9||Lake George||41|
|5||North Warren||North Warren||19||North Warren||2|
|3||Fort Ann||Fort Ann||Fort Ann||9||Fort Ann||13|
|7||Doane Stuart||Northville||6||Loudonville Christian||13|