Thursday, February 21, 2013

Completed Boys Common Opponent Analysis

Here is the completed COA for the boys.  You’ll notice several upsets in AA which again goes back to the CBA-Bethlehem game.  If you include all the first round games into the analysis (which I can’t for my official predictions) CBA wins by 2 instead of losing by 6 to Guilderland.  Troy loses by 2 instead of 6 to Bethlehem.  Even if Troy and CBA were to advance, they would both lose to Shaker and Green Tech respectively using the COA so the results wouldn’t change overall.  Doing the analysis this way, Green Tech is clearly the best team in AA and it really doesn’t matter who they play.  Their biggest test will have to be in CBA who has the experience to offset any talent or age gaps (if there are any).  There are still several really good games left in this bracket and it should be entertaining all the way through.

There is also an interesting case in the A bracket where Averill Park and Glens Falls play in the second round.  There are three cases where they played the same team and three cases where a team is once removed, where an opponent’ opponent played the other team.  In the first, Averill Park wins by 17, in the second Glens Falls wins by 25.  We’ll see which is right or if the average is a better predictor.

In the B bracket, almost every single game after the first round is less than 10 points, which basically means it can go either way.  So far, the average variance between what I have calculated using this method and what actually happened is 12 points in either direction.  This has the potential to be a very exciting tournament.

The C bracket is even more of a mess than the B.  I have had to do multiple contingency calculations because almost every game, even in the first round, calculates to less than 10.  Twelve of the fifteen games are below ten points and four are below five.

The opposite is true in the D bracket where only three of the games are less than ten.  The interesting thing here is how poorly the CHVL compares.  Granted, they are mostly using five team comps but I use what I can.  We’ll see how it plays out.  For the record, the standings I posted yesterday will be using the current match-up calculations, not this bracket.  I’m working on the girls’ bracket as well.  That should be done soon.

 Class AA 
 S1   Shaker  Shaker 32 Shaker 18 Shaker 4
 B8   Albany 
 B4   LaSalle  Columbia 19
 S5   Columbia 
 S3   Bethelehem  Bethlehem 29 Bethlehem 6
 B6   Catholic Central 
 S7   Saratoga Springs  Troy 1
 B2   Troy  Green Tech 19
 S2   Shenendehowa  Shenendehowa 25 Green Tech 18 Green Tech 39
 B7   Bishop Maginn 
 S6   Colonie  Green Tech 33
 B3   Green Tech 
 S4   Guilderland  Guilderland 21 Guilderland 3
 B5   Schenectady 
 S8   Niskayuna      3 CBA 4
 B1   CBA 

   Class A   
     1  Scotia-Glenville    Scotia-Glenville   Scotia-Glenville 30 Scotia-Glenville 34    
  16  Bye       
     9  Mohonasen    Mohonasen 1    
     8  Gloversville       
     5  South Glens Falls    South Glens Falls   South Glens Falls 1    
  12  Bye       
  13  Bye    Lansingburgh      
     4  Lansingburgh    Scotia-Glenville 24
     3  Glens Falls    Glens Falls   Glens Falls 4 Burnt Hills 18    
  14  Bye       
  11  Bishop Gibbons    Averill Park 25    
     6  Averill Park       
     7  Queensbury    Amsterdam 2 Burnt Hills 19    
  10  Amsterdam       
     2  Burnt Hills    Burnt Hills      
  15  Bye       

   Class B   
     1  Watervliet    Watervliet 29 Watervliet 17 Watervliet 7    
  16  Tamarac    15    
     9  Ichabod Crane    Broadalbin-Perth 8    
     8  Broadalbin-Perth       
     5  Cohoes    Cohoes 35 Cohoes 8    
  12  Taconic Hills       
  13  Fonda-Fultonville    Catskill 2    
     4  Catskill    Watervliet 5
     3  Mekeel Academy    Mekeel Academy 34 Mekeel Academy 9 Mekeel Academy 3    
  14  Hudson Falls       
  11  Schalmont    Cairo-Durham 13    
     6  Cairo-Durham       
     7  Ravena    Ravena 15 Schuylverville 4    
  10  Hudson       
  15  Granville      5 Schuylverville 28    
     2  Schuylerville       

   Class C   
     1  Hoosic Valley    Hoosic Valley 26 Hoosic Valley 7 Hoosic Valley 7    
  16  Waterford      7    
     9  Fort Plain    Rensselaer 6    
     8  Rensselaer       
     5  Schoharie    Stillwater 3 Stillwater 3    
  12  Stillwater       
  13  Voorheesville    Voorheesville 6    
     4  Canajoharie    Hoosic Valley 3
     3  Greenwich    Greenwich 8 Mechanicville 7 Lake George 6    
  14  Mayfield      6    
  11  Hoosick Falls    Mechanicville 8    
     6  Mechanicville       
     7  Berne-Knox    Berne-Knox 17 Lake George 2    
  10  Maple Hill       
  15  Saratoga Catholic      9 Lake George 41    
     2  Lake George       

   Class D   
     1  Argyle    Argyle   Argyle 47 Argyle 29    
  16  Bye       
     9  Heatly    St. Johnsville 16    
     8  St. Johnsville       
     5  North Warren    North Warren 19 North Warren 2    
  12  Warrensburg       
  13  Fort Edward    Germantown 20    
     4  Germantown    Argyle  34
     3  Fort Ann    Fort Ann   Fort Ann 9 Fort Ann 13    
  14  Bye       
  11  Salem    Hartford 5    
     6  Hartford       
     7  Doane Stuart    Northville 6 Loudonville Christian 13    
  10  Northville       
  15  Bye    Loudvonville Christian      
     2  Loudonville Christian       

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