Completed Boys Common Opponent Analysis

Here is the completed COA for the boys.  You’ll notice several upsets in AA which again goes back to the CBA-Bethlehem game.  If you include all the first round games into the analysis (which I can’t for my official predictions) CBA wins by 2 instead of losing by 6 to Guilderland.  Troy loses by 2 instead of 6 to Bethlehem.  Even if Troy and CBA were to advance, they would both lose to Shaker and Green Tech respectively using the COA so the results wouldn’t change overall.  Doing the analysis this way, Green Tech is clearly the best team in AA and it really doesn’t matter who they play.  Their biggest test will have to be in CBA who has the experience to offset any talent or age gaps (if there are any).  There are still several really good games left in this bracket and it should be entertaining all the way through.

There is also an interesting case in the A bracket where Averill Park and Glens Falls play in the second round.  There are three cases where they played the same team and three cases where a team is once removed, where an opponent’ opponent played the other team.  In the first, Averill Park wins by 17, in the second Glens Falls wins by 25.  We’ll see which is right or if the average is a better predictor.

In the B bracket, almost every single game after the first round is less than 10 points, which basically means it can go either way.  So far, the average variance between what I have calculated using this method and what actually happened is 12 points in either direction.  This has the potential to be a very exciting tournament.

The C bracket is even more of a mess than the B.  I have had to do multiple contingency calculations because almost every game, even in the first round, calculates to less than 10.  Twelve of the fifteen games are below ten points and four are below five.

The opposite is true in the D bracket where only three of the games are less than ten.  The interesting thing here is how poorly the CHVL compares.  Granted, they are mostly using five team comps but I use what I can.  We’ll see how it plays out.  For the record, the standings I posted yesterday will be using the current match-up calculations, not this bracket.  I’m working on the girls’ bracket as well.  That should be done soon.

	Class AA
S1	Shaker		Shaker	32	Shaker	18	Shaker	4
B8	Albany
B4	LaSalle		Columbia	19
S5	Columbia
S3	Bethelehem		Bethlehem	29	Bethlehem	6
B6	Catholic Central
S7	Saratoga Springs		Troy	1
B2	Troy								Green Tech	19
S2	Shenendehowa		Shenendehowa	25	Green Tech	18	Green Tech	39
B7	Bishop Maginn
S6	Colonie		Green Tech	33
B3	Green Tech
S4	Guilderland		Guilderland	21	Guilderland	3
B5	Schenectady
S8	Niskayuna	3	CBA	4
B1	CBA

	Class A
1	Scotia-Glenville		Scotia-Glenville		Scotia-Glenville	30	Scotia-Glenville	34
16	Bye
9	Mohonasen		Mohonasen	1
8	Gloversville
5	South Glens Falls		South Glens Falls		South Glens Falls	1
12	Bye
13	Bye		Lansingburgh
4	Lansingburgh								Scotia-Glenville	24
3	Glens Falls		Glens Falls		Glens Falls	4	Burnt Hills	18
14	Bye
11	Bishop Gibbons		Averill Park	25
6	Averill Park
7	Queensbury		Amsterdam	2	Burnt Hills	19
10	Amsterdam
2	Burnt Hills		Burnt Hills
15	Bye

	Class B
1	Watervliet		Watervliet	29	Watervliet	17	Watervliet	7
16	Tamarac	15
9	Ichabod Crane		Broadalbin-Perth	8
8	Broadalbin-Perth
5	Cohoes		Cohoes	35	Cohoes	8
12	Taconic Hills
13	Fonda-Fultonville		Catskill	2
4	Catskill								Watervliet	5
3	Mekeel Academy		Mekeel Academy	34	Mekeel Academy	9	Mekeel Academy	3
14	Hudson Falls
11	Schalmont		Cairo-Durham	13
6	Cairo-Durham
7	Ravena		Ravena	15	Schuylverville	4
10	Hudson
15	Granville	5	Schuylverville	28
2	Schuylerville

	Class C
1	Hoosic Valley		Hoosic Valley	26	Hoosic Valley	7	Hoosic Valley	7
16	Waterford	7
9	Fort Plain		Rensselaer	6
8	Rensselaer
5	Schoharie		Stillwater	3	Stillwater	3
12	Stillwater
13	Voorheesville		Voorheesville	6
4	Canajoharie								Hoosic Valley	3
3	Greenwich		Greenwich	8	Mechanicville	7	Lake George	6
14	Mayfield	6
11	Hoosick Falls		Mechanicville	8
6	Mechanicville
7	Berne-Knox		Berne-Knox	17	Lake George	2
10	Maple Hill
15	Saratoga Catholic	9	Lake George	41
2	Lake George

	Class D
1	Argyle		Argyle		Argyle	47	Argyle	29
16	Bye
9	Heatly		St. Johnsville	16
8	St. Johnsville
5	North Warren		North Warren	19	North Warren	2
12	Warrensburg
13	Fort Edward		Germantown	20
4	Germantown								Argyle	34
3	Fort Ann		Fort Ann		Fort Ann	9	Fort Ann	13
14	Bye
11	Salem		Hartford	5
6	Hartford
7	Doane Stuart		Northville	6	Loudonville Christian	13
10	Northville
15	Bye		Loudvonville Christian
2	Loudonville Christian