Friday, February 15, 2013

Girls Selection Analysis

When I first looked at the brackets I noticed how Scotia was ahead of South Glens Fallswhere the forecast had them switched.  In this case I would disagree with the forecast, though I had to double check their games first.  Scotia played a much tougher schedule and beat South Glens Falls twice without Broadhead. 
Class AA is what it is and I don’t think there was much else that could have been done with it.  When you restrict your seeding by which league the team plays in there are only a few options and I can’t disagree with the choices they made.
Overall I thought class B was pretty good.  The model had Taconic Hills at 3 with the two Colonial teams behind them, but at least in this case the committee chose to put both Colonial teams ahead of the Patroon team.  I’m not going to argue that philosophy as long as it’s consistent within the bracket.  The Tamarac - Watervliet debate could have gone either way with both deserving and I don’t think either side of the bracket is harder than the other so it shouldn’t make much difference (even though Watervliet’s suspended player might).
With the D bracket, the committee basically just handed the tournament over to the Adirondack League.  Northville is the first non Adirondack League team at #5.  This year that may be true as Northville did perform better against Galway than Heatly did and was on par with Warrensburg’s common opponents.  Whether or not this is an all Adirondackfinal four remains to be seen, but it was probably going to have 3 anyway you sliced it.
I saved the C for last because we’ve talked about it the most.  When I ran the Prediction model (which has very limited data), it went like this: Hoosic Valley, Hoosick Falls, Maple Hill, Waterford, Berne-Knox, Mechanicville, Greenwich, Fort Plain, Duanesburg and Albany Academy for the top 10.  That being said, I can’t really argue with the committee’s top 4.  Their valuing of Waterford at 6 along with Heatly at 6 in the D bracket doesn’t say much for their belief in the quality of the CHVL.  Honestly, if you are going to devalue the CHVL that much Mekeel probably should have been 6 just behind Duanesburg andWaterford 7.  It actually would have made more sense too from the standpoint that they would have a potential matchup with Maple Hill in the second round with whom shared a common opponent in Taconic Hills.  Back to the WAC, I’m not sure how the difference between Mekeel and Middleburgh is 10 spots or how Fort Plain is 9 spots ahead when they lost to Middleburgh by 20.  I’m not sure how you give Duanesburg’s 11 point win over Waterford that much more weight than Middleburgh’s 20 point win over Fort Plain.
The C bracket is one case where a team, Hoosic Valley, was given a break by havingHoosick Falls as the 4 (instead of lower as the model had them).  If that is the toughest team on their side of the bracket, it should be a cake walk to the final against whoever survives the other side.
On the whole, the problems I have are due to consistency.  You can make arguments on different fronts for different teams but I’d rather see a consistent approach even if I come to different conclusion than having it a bit scattered.
Up next, I’ll give my predictions (even if I haven’t figured out yet how to display them) and other general feelings on how the tournaments will play out.  Tuesday will be here before you know it and for me, I have a lot to do.

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