Friday, February 22, 2013

Completed Girls Common Opponent Analysis

Here is the completed girls’ COA.  The biggest story in the AA bracket is the potential Albany-Bethlehem showdown in the finals and the COA has each of them getting there relatively easily.  The shocking thing to me was the final margin in the final with Albany coming out on top by 10 points.  While that is within the average +/- variance of 13, it does mean they are extremely close to being the prohibitive favorites which is a bit surprising to me at least.

Perhaps along the same lines showing a stronger than thought Big 10, Troy is coming out ahead of Holy Names in the A bracket.  Both Troy’s advantage and Holy Names' over Averill Park is 8 points, so not without reason either could flip.  Just for fun, Troy has a 20 point edge over Averill Park using the same analysis.

The B bracket is a bit of a question mark as the top seed Watervliet is missing two of their starters.  Still, they have a 17 point edge over Broadalbin-Perth in the second round so we’ll see just how diminished they are missing 40% of their starting five.  If they survive that one, they have a 9 point edge on Taconic Hills and an 11 point edge on Ichabod Crane and over Tamarac in the final by 11, which are not insignificant, but their tournament is certainly a lot tougher now. 

I know it’s a stretch at this point, but if Ravena were to meet Johnstown there would be another situation where there is a stark difference between the 4 team and 5 team comparisons.  I’m interested in situations like this because it provides information whether or not there is any legitimacy to such a stretch of an analysis.  In this case Ravena has the edge in the 4 team comp by 18 and Johnstown has a 5 point edge in the 5 team comp. 

The C and D brackets, while they each have a couple close games are basically chalk and in the case of the D bracket, really not even close.  The one game I think could be interesting is Berne-Knox and Greenwich which is another game where the 4 and 5 team comps don’t match up.  If the four team comp is right, BKW wins going away, but watch out if the five team comp is right.  I do however believe that both C and D finals will be good games and fun to watch.

   Class AA                   
 S1   Bethlehem    Bethlehem   Bethlehem 26 Bethlehem 18    
 B8   Bye       
 S6   Guilderland    Columbia 7    
 S5   Columbia       
 S3   Colonie    Colonie   Colonie 14    
 B6   Bye       
 S7   Bye    Catholic Central      
 B2   Catholic Central    Albany 10
 S2   Shaker    Shaker   Shaker 39 Albany 18    
 B7   Bye       
 S6   Bye    Bishop Maginn      
 B3   Bishop Maginn       
 S4   Shenendehowa    Shenendehowa 33 Albany 34    
 S7   Niskayuna       
 S8   Bye    Albany      
 B1   Albany       

   Class A                   
     1  Troy    Troy   Troy 22 Troy 19    
  16  Bye       
     9  Amsterdam    South Glens Falls 14    
     8  South Glens Falls       
     5  Mohonasen    Mohonasen   Queensbury 6    
  12  Bye       
  13  Bye    Queensbury      
     4  Queensbury    Troy 8
     3  Averill Park    Averill Park   Averill Park 10 Holy Names 8    
  14  Bye       
  11  Bye    Glens Falls      
     6  Glens Falls       
     7  Scotia-Glenville    Scotia-Glenville   Holy Names 24    
  10  Bye       
     2  Holy Names    Holy Names      
  15  Bye       

   Class B                   
     1  Watervliet    Watervliet 50 Watervliet 8 Watervliet 13    
  16  Emma Willard    12    
     9  Broadalbin-Perth    Schalmont 5    
     8  Schalmont       
     5  Taconic Hills    Taconic Hills 30 Cohoes 5    
  12  Catskill    11    
  13  Ichabod Crane    21 Cohoes 18    
     4  Cohoes    Watervliet 11
     3  Ravena    Ravena 14 Ravena 9 Tamarac 5    
  14  Fonda-Fultonville    23    
  11  Hudson    Hudson Falls 26    
     6  Hudson Falls       
     7  Johnstown    Johnstown 19 Tamarac 4    
  10  Greenville       
  15  Albany Leadership    10 Tamarac 44    
     2  Tamarac       
   Class C                   
     1  Hoosic Valley    Hoosic Valley 16 Hoosic Valley 12 Hoosic Valley 22    
  16  Middleburgh      3    
     9  Lake George    Fort Plain 6    
     8  Fort Plain       
     5  Duanesburg    Duanesburg 6 Hoosick Falls 1    
  12  Galway    20    
  13  Voorheesville    20 Hoosick Falls 14    
     4  Hoosick Falls    Hoosic Valley 6
     3  Berne-Knox    Berne-Knox 17 Berne-Knox 9 Maple Hill  4    
  14  Canajoharie      5    
  11  Greenwich    Waterford 6    
     6  Waterford       
     7  Mekeel Academy    Mekeel Academy 2 Maple Hill 19    
  10  Mechanicville       
  15  Albany Academy      6 Maple Hill 54    
     2  Maple Hill       

   Class D                   
     1  Fort Edward    Fort Edward   Fort Edward 55 Fort Edward 43    
  16  Bye       
     9  Germantown    Germantown 4    
     8  North Warren       
     5  Northville    Northville   Northville 2    
  12  Bye       
  13  Bye    Warrensburg      
     4  Warrensburg    Fort Edward 15
     3  Argyle    Argyle   Argyle 37 Fort Ann 18    
  14  Bye       
  11  Bolton    Bolton 1    
     6  Heatly       
     7  Hartford    Hartford 14 Fort Ann 22    
  10  New Lebanon       
  15  Bye    Fort Ann      
     2  Fort Ann       

No comments:

Post a Comment