Here is the completed girls’ COA. The biggest story in the AA bracket is the potential Albany-Bethlehem showdown in the finals and the COA has each of them getting there relatively easily. The shocking thing to me was the final margin in the final with Albany coming out on top by 10 points. While that is within the average +/- variance of 13, it does mean they are extremely close to being the prohibitive favorites which is a bit surprising to me at least.
Perhaps along the same lines showing a stronger than thought Big 10, Troy is coming out ahead of Holy Names in the A bracket. Both Troy’s advantage and Holy Names' over Averill Park is 8 points, so not without reason either could flip. Just for fun, Troy has a 20 point edge over Averill Park using the same analysis.
The B bracket is a bit of a question mark as the top seed Watervliet is missing two of their starters. Still, they have a 17 point edge over Broadalbin-Perth in the second round so we’ll see just how diminished they are missing 40% of their starting five. If they survive that one, they have a 9 point edge on Taconic Hills and an 11 point edge on Ichabod Crane and over Tamarac in the final by 11, which are not insignificant, but their tournament is certainly a lot tougher now.
I know it’s a stretch at this point, but if Ravena were to meet Johnstown there would be another situation where there is a stark difference between the 4 team and 5 team comparisons. I’m interested in situations like this because it provides information whether or not there is any legitimacy to such a stretch of an analysis. In this case Ravena has the edge in the 4 team comp by 18 and Johnstown has a 5 point edge in the 5 team comp.
The C and D brackets, while they each have a couple close games are basically chalk and in the case of the D bracket, really not even close. The one game I think could be interesting is Berne-Knox and Greenwich which is another game where the 4 and 5 team comps don’t match up. If the four team comp is right, BKW wins going away, but watch out if the five team comp is right. I do however believe that both C and D finals will be good games and fun to watch.
|9||Amsterdam||South Glens Falls||14|
|8||South Glens Falls|
|3||Averill Park||Averill Park||Averill Park||10||Holy Names||8|
|2||Holy Names||Holy Names|
|5||Taconic Hills||Taconic Hills||30||Cohoes||5|
|1||Hoosic Valley||Hoosic Valley||16||Hoosic Valley||12||Hoosic Valley||22|
|9||Lake George||Fort Plain||6|
|4||Hoosick Falls||Hoosic Valley||6|
|7||Mekeel Academy||Mekeel Academy||2||Maple Hill||19|
|15||Albany Academy||6||Maple Hill||54|
|1||Fort Edward||Fort Edward||Fort Edward||55||Fort Edward||43|