Completed Girls Common Opponent Analysis

Here is the completed girls’ COA.  The biggest story in the AA bracket is the potential Albany-Bethlehem showdown in the finals and the COA has each of them getting there relatively easily.  The shocking thing to me was the final margin in the final with Albany coming out on top by 10 points.  While that is within the average +/- variance of 13, it does mean they are extremely close to being the prohibitive favorites which is a bit surprising to me at least.

Perhaps along the same lines showing a stronger than thought Big 10, Troy is coming out ahead of Holy Names in the A bracket.  Both Troy’s advantage and Holy Names' over Averill Park is 8 points, so not without reason either could flip.  Just for fun, Troy has a 20 point edge over Averill Park using the same analysis.

The B bracket is a bit of a question mark as the top seed Watervliet is missing two of their starters.  Still, they have a 17 point edge over Broadalbin-Perth in the second round so we’ll see just how diminished they are missing 40% of their starting five.  If they survive that one, they have a 9 point edge on Taconic Hills and an 11 point edge on Ichabod Crane and over Tamarac in the final by 11, which are not insignificant, but their tournament is certainly a lot tougher now. 

I know it’s a stretch at this point, but if Ravena were to meet Johnstown there would be another situation where there is a stark difference between the 4 team and 5 team comparisons.  I’m interested in situations like this because it provides information whether or not there is any legitimacy to such a stretch of an analysis.  In this case Ravena has the edge in the 4 team comp by 18 and Johnstown has a 5 point edge in the 5 team comp. 

The C and D brackets, while they each have a couple close games are basically chalk and in the case of the D bracket, really not even close.  The one game I think could be interesting is Berne-Knox and Greenwich which is another game where the 4 and 5 team comps don’t match up.  If the four team comp is right, BKW wins going away, but watch out if the five team comp is right.  I do however believe that both C and D finals will be good games and fun to watch.

	Class AA
S1	Bethlehem		Bethlehem		Bethlehem	26	Bethlehem	18
B8	Bye
S6	Guilderland		Columbia	7
S5	Columbia
S3	Colonie		Colonie		Colonie	14
B6	Bye
S7	Bye		Catholic Central
B2	Catholic Central								Albany	10
S2	Shaker		Shaker		Shaker	39	Albany	18
B7	Bye
S6	Bye		Bishop Maginn
B3	Bishop Maginn
S4	Shenendehowa		Shenendehowa	33	Albany	34
S7	Niskayuna
S8	Bye		Albany
B1	Albany

	Class A
1	Troy		Troy		Troy	22	Troy	19
16	Bye
9	Amsterdam		South Glens Falls	14
8	South Glens Falls
5	Mohonasen		Mohonasen		Queensbury	6
12	Bye
13	Bye		Queensbury
4	Queensbury								Troy	8
3	Averill Park		Averill Park		Averill Park	10	Holy Names	8
14	Bye
11	Bye		Glens Falls
6	Glens Falls
7	Scotia-Glenville		Scotia-Glenville		Holy Names	24
10	Bye
2	Holy Names		Holy Names
15	Bye

	Class B
1	Watervliet		Watervliet	50	Watervliet	8	Watervliet	13
16	Emma Willard	12
9	Broadalbin-Perth		Schalmont	5
8	Schalmont
5	Taconic Hills		Taconic Hills	30	Cohoes	5
12	Catskill	11
13	Ichabod Crane	21	Cohoes	18
4	Cohoes								Watervliet	11
3	Ravena		Ravena	14	Ravena	9	Tamarac	5
14	Fonda-Fultonville	23
11	Hudson		Hudson Falls	26
6	Hudson Falls
7	Johnstown		Johnstown	19	Tamarac	4
10	Greenville
15	Albany Leadership	10	Tamarac	44
2	Tamarac

	Class C
1	Hoosic Valley		Hoosic Valley	16	Hoosic Valley	12	Hoosic Valley	22
16	Middleburgh	3
9	Lake George		Fort Plain	6
8	Fort Plain
5	Duanesburg		Duanesburg	6	Hoosick Falls	1
12	Galway	20
13	Voorheesville	20	Hoosick Falls	14
4	Hoosick Falls								Hoosic Valley	6
3	Berne-Knox		Berne-Knox	17	Berne-Knox	9	Maple Hill	4
14	Canajoharie	5
11	Greenwich		Waterford	6
6	Waterford
7	Mekeel Academy		Mekeel Academy	2	Maple Hill	19
10	Mechanicville
15	Albany Academy	6	Maple Hill	54
2	Maple Hill

	Class D
1	Fort Edward		Fort Edward		Fort Edward	55	Fort Edward	43
16	Bye
9	Germantown		Germantown	4
8	North Warren
5	Northville		Northville		Northville	2
12	Bye
13	Bye		Warrensburg
4	Warrensburg								Fort Edward	15
3	Argyle		Argyle		Argyle	37	Fort Ann	18
14	Bye
11	Bolton		Bolton	1
6	Heatly
7	Hartford		Hartford	14	Fort Ann	22
10	New Lebanon
15	Bye		Fort Ann
2	Fort Ann