Ok so I'm still missing a couple games, but chances are they won't have too big of an impact and I'll run it again when I get them and let you know if anything changed. What you need to know for this one is that I included their final sectional rating as computed by the regression model. There is a scale below so you know what they mean. Happy forecasting and I can't wait to see the brackets tomorrow.
Champions 1.000 +
Finals 0.889 - .999
Final Four 0.778 - 0.888
HF48 0.667 - 0.777 (anyone above this line I usually consider a contender)
Final Eight 0.556 - 0.666
HF24 0.389 - 0.555
Class AA
(1) Bethlehem 17-0 0.901
(16) Bye
(8) Guilderland 7-9 0.393 up 1
(9) Bishop Maginn 9-9 0.387 down 1
(5) Catholic Central 11-5 0.632
(12) Niskayuna 3-15 0.116 up 1
(4) Colonie 14-4 0.693
(13) Schenectady 0-15 0.034 down 1
(3) Shaker 15-1 0.756
(14) Bye
(6) Shenendehowa 11-5 0.555
(11) Ballston Spa 4-14 0.160
(7) Columbia 7-10 0.447
(10) Saratoga Springs 7-11 0.306
(2) Albany 13-0 0.817
(15) Bye
Class A
(1) Holy Names 18-0 0.845
(16) Bye
(8) Mohonasen 5-12 0.332
(9) Amsterdam 4-10 0.257
(5) Glens Falls 10-5 0.588
(12) Bye
(4) Queensbury 11-4 0.635
(13) Bye
(3) Averill Park 13-5 0.643
(14) Bye
(6) South Glens Falls 11-7 0.538 up 1
(11) Lansingburgh 0-18 0.029
(7) Scotia-Glenville 7-10 0.485 down 1
(10) Burnt Hills 2-16 0.071
(2) Troy 12-3 0.728
(15) Bye
Class B
(1) Tamarac 17-1 0.770
(16) Fonda-Fultonville 7-10 0.351 down 2
(8) Corinth 12-6 0.497 down 2
(9) Hudson Falls 8-9 0.490 up 2
(5) Greenville 10-7 0.545
(12) Hudson 11-7 0.468 down 2
(4) Ravena 12-6 0.570
(13) Broadalbin-Perth 8-9 0.434 down 1
(3) Taconic Hills 14-3 0.702
(14) Catskill 8-10 0.360 up 2
(6) Emma Willard 12-6 0.535 up 2
(11) Schalmont 11-7 0.472 up 2
(7) Cohoes 12-6 0.524
(10) Johnstown 9-8 0.484 down 1
(2) Watervliet 16-1 0.758
(15) Ichabod Crane 7-11 0.354
Unranked: Granville, Albany Leadership, Bishop Gibbons, Coxsackie-Athens, Schuylerville, Cobleskill, Chatham, Cairo-Durham
Class C
(1) Berne-Knox 14-1 0.794
(16) Schoharie 6-10 0.333 previously unranked
(8) Mekeel Academy 9-6 0.567 up 1
(9) Lake George 13-4 0.566 down 2
(5) Fort Plain 13-1 0.676
(12) Canajoharie 9-8 0.445
(4) Hoosic Valley 15-3 0.696
(13) Mechanicville 9-9 0.374
(3) Maple Hill 17-1 0.736
(14) Whitehall 8-9 0.3577
(6) Galway 11-5 0.589
(11) Middleburgh 9-7 0.512 down 1
(7) Hoosick Falls 12-5 0.576 up 1
(10) Duanesburg 10-5 0.533 up 1
(2) Waterford 16-2 0.764
(15) Greenwich 8-9 0.3576
Unranked: Albany Academy, Mayfield, Stillwater, Saratoga Catholic, Berlin, Hadley-Luzerne, Rensselaer, Cambridge, Voorheesville
Class D
(1) Fort Edward 15-0 0.851
(16) Sharon Springs 0-12 0.000 down 3
(8) Loudonville Christian 6-9 0.262 down 1
(9) North Warren 6-11 0.247 up 1
(5) Germantown 10-6 0.442
(12) Bolton 3-12 0.155
(4) Heatly 13-5 0.558
(13) St. Johnsville 1-13 0.049 up 2
(3) Argyle 12-5 0.675
(14) Doane Stuart 2-13 0.0064
(6) Warrensburg 8-8 0.322
(11) Hartford 5-11 0.228 down 3
(7) New Lebanon 6-9 0.276 up 4
(10) Northville 6-11 0.244 down 1
(2) Fort Ann 15-2 0.796
(15) Salem 0-16 0.0058 up 1
Unranked: Hawthorne Valley
I'll do some analysis in the next couple days. I still have to do the boys bracket then I'm going to bed so I can get up for work tomorrow.
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