Girls Sectional Breakdown

As I have previously mentioned I'm doing three different statistical analyses (I think that's the right word) using the Sectional Forecast Rating (SFR as I will start referring to it, not sure how I didn't think of that one before) that you have been reading about all year, the Sectional Prediction Rating (SPR) and the Common Opponents Analysis (COA).  Unfortunately I just haven't had the time to complete all the games for the COA so I'll have to update you as I get them done.  It takes forever to sort through all the combinations.  Anyway, I'll also be telling you what I think in my own biased opinion.

SFR

	Class AA
S1	Bethlehem	Bethlehem	Bethlehem	Bethlehem
B8	Bye
S6	Guilderland	Columbia
S5	Columbia
S3	Colonie	Colonie	Colonie
B6	Bye
S7	Bye	Catholic Central
B2	Catholic Central				Bethlehem
S2	Shaker	Shaker	Shaker	Albany
B7	Bye
S6	Bye	Bishop Maginn
B3	Bishop Maginn
S4	Shenendehowa	Shenendehowa	Albany
S7	Niskayuna
S8	Bye	Albany
B1	Albany

	Class A
1	Troy	Troy	Troy	Troy
16	Bye
9	Amsterdam	South Glens Falls
8	South Glens Falls
5	Mohonasen	Mohonasen	Queensbury
12	Bye
13	Bye	Queensbury
4	Queensbury				Holy Names
3	Averill Park	Averill Park	Averill Park	Holy Names
14	Bye
11	Bye	Glens Falls
6	Glens Falls
7	Scotia-Glenville	Scotia-Glenville	Holy Names
10	Bye
2	Holy Names	Holy Names
15	Bye

	Class B
1	Watervliet	Watervliet	Watervliet	Watervliet
16	Emma Willard
9	Broadalbin-Perth	Schalmont
8	Schalmont
5	Taconic Hills	Taconic Hills	Taconic Hills
12	Catskill
13	Ichabod Crane	Cohoes
4	Cohoes				Tamarac
3	Ravena	Ravena	Ravena	Tamarac
14	Fonda-Fultonville
11	Hudson	Hudson Falls
6	Hudson Falls
7	Johnstown	Johnstown	Tamarac
10	Greenville
15	Corinth	Tamarac
2	Tamarac

	Class C
1	Hoosic Valley	Hoosic Valley	Hoosic Valley	Hoosic Valley
16	Middleburgh
9	Lake George	Fort Plain
8	Fort Plain
5	Duanesburg	Galway	Galway
12	Galway
13	Mayfield	Hoosick Falls
4	Hoosick Falls				Berne-Knox
3	Berne-Knox	Berne-Knox	Berne-Knox	Berne-Knox
14	Canajoharie
11	Greenwich	Waterford
6	Waterford
7	Mekeel Academy	Mekeel Academy	Maple Hill
10	Mechanicville
15	Schoharie	Maple Hill
2	Maple Hill

	Class D
1	Fort Edward	Fort Edward	Fort Edward	Fort Edward
16	Bye
9	Germantown	Germantown
8	North Warren
5	Northville	Northville	Warrensburg
12	Bye
13	Bye	Warrensburg
4	Warrensburg				Fort Edward
3	Argyle	Argyle	Argyle	Fort Ann
14	Bye
11	Bolton	Heatly
6	Heatly
7	Hartford	New Lebanon	Fort Ann
10	New Lebanon
15	Bye	Fort Ann
2	Fort Ann

SPR

	Class AA
S1	Bethlehem	Bethlehem	Bethlehem	Bethlehem
B8	Bye
S6	Guilderland	Columbia
S5	Columbia
S3	Colonie	Colonie	Colonie
B6	Bye
S7	Bye	Catholic Central
B2	Catholic Central				Bethlehem
S2	Shaker	Shaker	Shaker	Shaker
B7	Bye
S6	Bye	Bishop Maginn
B3	Bishop Maginn
S4	Shenendehowa	Shenendehowa	Albany
S7	Niskayuna
S8	Bye	Albany
B1	Albany

	Class A
1	Troy	Troy	Troy	Troy
16	Bye
9	Amsterdam	South Glens Falls
8	South Glens Falls
5	Mohonasen	Mohonasen	Queensbury
12	Bye
13	Bye	Queensbury
4	Queensbury				Averill Park
3	Averill Park	Averill Park	Averill Park	Averill Park
14	Bye
11	Bye	Glens Falls
6	Glens Falls
7	Scotia-Glenville	Scotia-Glenville	Holy Names
10	Bye
2	Holy Names	Holy Names
15	Bye

	Class B
1	Watervliet	Watervliet	Watervliet	Watervliet
16	Emma Willard
9	Broadalbin-Perth	Schalmont
8	Schalmont
5	Taconic Hills	Taconic Hills	Cohoes
12	Catskill
13	Ichabod Crane	Cohoes
4	Cohoes				Tamarac
3	Ravena	Ravena	Ravena	Tamarac
14	Fonda-Fultonville
11	Hudson	Hudson Falls
6	Hudson Falls
7	Johnstown	Johnstown	Tamarac
10	Greenville
15	Corinth	Tamarac
2	Tamarac

	Class C
1	Hoosic Valley	Hoosic Valley	Hoosic Valley	Hoosic Valley
16	Stillwater
9	Lake George	Fort Plain
8	Fort Plain
5	Duanesburg	Duanesburg	Hoosick Falls
12	Galway
13	Voorheesville	Hoosick Falls
4	Hoosick Falls				Hoosic Valley
3	Berne-Knox	Berne-Knox	Waterford	Maple Hill
14	Canajoharie
11	Greenwich	Waterford
6	Waterford
7	Mekeel Academy	Mechanicville	Maple Hill
10	Mechanicville
15	Albany Academy	Maple Hill
2	Maple Hill

	Class D
1	Fort Edward	Fort Edward	Fort Edward	Fort Edward
16	Bye
9	Germantown	North Warren
8	North Warren
5	Northville	Northville	Warrensburg
12	Bye
13	Bye	Warrensburg
4	Warrensburg				Fort Edward
3	Argyle	Argyle	Argyle	Fort Ann
14	Bye
11	Bolton	Heatly
6	Heatly
7	Hartford	Harford	Fort Ann
10	New Lebanon
15	Bye	Fort Ann
2	Fort Ann

Ok, now for what I think.  In the AA bracket, there are only four teams that have a chance at this, they being Bethlehem, Albany, Shaker and Colonie, and even there, Colonie might be a bit of a stretch.  At this point I'm reluctant to count them out completely because they have the experience that none of the others do, but they are going to have to beat Bethlehem to do it and the other two don't until the final (in theory they could lose before then to Colonie).  Realistically I think Bethlehem and Albany will meet in the final because I think they are better than the others, but you can't say it's impossible for one or both to have a bad game and lose to another really good team.  Either way the story lines are compelling, the two power house teams in Bethlehem and Albany, or a good old fashioned rivalry game between Shaker and Colonie.  My prediction: Bethlehem over Colonie, Albany over Shaker, Albany over Bethlehem by less than 5 (not at all confident with that (I've now changed it twice (just thought about it again))).  No significant upsets.

The class A bracket is also loaded at the top with Troy, Holy Names and Averill Park all with very good chances to win.  All the teams after that are about even or very slightly separated and they are all pretty good, even good enough to throw an upset on the board, but I can't see any of the remainder of the field running the table.  Separating the top three isn't easy, but I do believe the committee had this right with Troy at number 1.  They had a better MOV against Bethlehem than did AP and while they were comparable against Bishop Maginn with Holy Names, there was no one on Holy Names schedule that matches up to that level of competition.  Troy has played both of the teams almost everyone has in the AA final and played them well.  My prediction: Troy over Mohon, AP over Holy Names, Troy over AP.  No significant upsets.

This is a bracket I can see a potential for a lot of upsets.  The Foohills has been undervalued and while I'm not sure either Hudson Falls or Johnstown can take the crown, I can see either of them winning a couple games or putting a serious scare into a top team.  We also have Watervliet missing a player for the entire sectionals due to a suspension.  Unlike the first two brackets there are several teams that can win this one, Watervliet, Tamarac, Cohoes, Ravena and (either) Hudson Falls or Johnstown.  My prediction: Watervliet over Cohoes, Tamarac over Hudson Falls, Watervliet over Tamarac (there are more threats on their side and I think it's less likely they make the final than Watervliet).  Potential upsets: Hudson Falls over Ravena, Johnstown over Tamarac.

For all the talk we've had over the C bracket, there are really only three teams that can take this, Hoosic Valley, Maple Hill and Berne-Knox.  HV should clearly be the favorite and Berne-Knox and Maple Hill have already played each other so we know they are roughly equals and honestly I don't even see that many places for an upset.  I was watching Mekeel closely because they seem to be flying under the radar a bit, but they have a very tough opening game against Mechanicville and may not even make it to a match-up with Maple Hill.  I'm not sure they could beat them anyway, but I do think it would be closer than one would think from a 2-7 match-up.  My prediction: Hoosic Valley over Hoosick Falls, Maple Hill over Berne-Knox, Hoosic Valley over Maple Hill.  Potential upsets, Greenwich over Waterford, Mechanicville over Mekeel Academy, Mekeel Academy over Maple Hill.

The D bracket has actually gotten a lot tighter after the final meeting between Fort Edward and Fort Ann and this could go either way now.  Argyle also has a chance, but they did not do well against Fort Ann either time they met this year so I wouldn't count on it now.  If they were somehow on opposite sides of the bracket I would include them as a title contender but I don't see them beating Fort Ann.  Beyond Argyle there aren't any real threats.  My prediction: Fort Edward over Northville, Fort Ann over Argyle, Fort Edward over Fort Ann. No significant upsets.