Thursday, February 14, 2013

Girls Preliminary Round

Since this is the first year I'm doing this in real time, I'm not entirely sure which of the methods I use works the best at predicting the winners in sectionals.  I have done some analysis going backwards and the model has performed slightly better than the sectional committee has, but I want to try a couple other things as well just to see.  Oddly enough, none of them agree as to the upsets in the preliminary round.

The first is the straight forecast model I've been using all year.  Just taking the values it comes up with there are two upsets in the preliminary round tomorrow.  Those would be Mayfield over Voorheesville and Schoharie over Albany Academy.  This model is obviously coming to some conclusion that the WAC is better than the Colonial which I don't entirely buy, but year to year things change so maybe it is this year.

The prediction model only offers one upset and that is Stillwater over Middleburgh.  Over the past two seasons the WAC has performed very poorly in sectionals which is what is driving this.

Finally, I compared as many common opponents as I could.  If they played each other that is the first choice, then common opponents and if I'm in a pinch I'll go one further out to common opponents common opponents.  Doing it that way Albany Leadership would upset Corinth.

It's tough finding time for all this analysis, but I'm doing my best.  I'll get the boys preliminary round out before the games start tomorrow as well.  I'll also give you my predictions for each game as I would for the NCAA Tournament.

At the end of the tournament, I'll give you the W-L record of each method along with the Sectional committee's and we'll see who did better.  For that, I'll take each game as it comes, not NCAA style.

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